Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Daddy Justify (Race 4)
Race #1: Selections: 1-5-3
1-Style Cat drops out of the Golden State Juvenile Stakes into this softer spot today for Team Miller but is an unknown on grass. The gelding’s pedigree on the dam side suggests he’ll handle it, and he should trip out nicely from the rail with Hernandez. 5-Run for Kidder was a 7-1 upset winner against similar on Nov. 9 going this five-furlong trip and is a logical contender for the repeat for conditioner Adam Kitchingman. 3-I’m a Bad Boy has won two of his last three starts but is another unproven on turf. He exits the same small stake as the top choice.
Race #2: Selections: 1-2-4
1-Breezy Blue goes turf to dirt with the addition of blinkers this afternoon and makes the third start of the form cycle for the Adam Kitchingman barn. The 3-year-old filly is by multiple G1 winner Air Force Blue, who gets a respectable 15% with his dirt sprint prodigy. A likely forward trip from the rail makes her the one to beat here. 2-Chasing Kat returns to the main track today, where she’s run her best races for trainer Leonard Powell. The 3-year-old filly has trained exceptionally well in recent weeks. 4-Play My Speed is another moving back to dirt and is eligible to grab a piece of this based on prior main track form.
Race #3: Selections 1-4-6
Of the trio of Phil D’Amato-trained runners entered here, 1-Sorrento Sky gets top billing as the colt to beat exiting back-to-back turf sprint scores on Sept. 8 and Oct. 14. This 3-year-old sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (94) and is back going five furlongs where he was a winner two-back. His stablemate 4-Unconquerabe Keen (Ire) is a multiple winner over the track and distance and is projected to be up close to the front again this afternoon with Rispoli. D’Amato’s third runner 6-Turn On The Jets (Ire) finished in front of Unconquerable Keen in his most recent try on Oct. 27 and now makes his third start off the bench with an improving Beyer pattern. The second and third choices are hard to separate, and they’re similar in ability.
Race #4: Selections: 1-5-2
Blinkers on 1-Daddy Justify makes career start number ten this afternoon but drops to the bottom $20k Maiden Claiming level and has run par or better for this class division on multiple occasions. We’ll give the gelding one last chance with the switch to jockey Juan Hernandez today. 5-Mining District ran a solid second when dropped to this level in his most recent try on Nov. 10 and now makes the second start off the bench today for Team O’Neill. 2-Supreme Coast was beaten by double digits in the last pair at this level but had wide trips. He just missed three-back at 18-1 and now switches from a bug boy to the top journeyman Flavien Prat today.
Race #5: Selections: 4-8-5
The Maiden 4-Scipio (by multiple G1 winner Caravaggio) has been plagued by challenging trips in recent starts for trainer Richard Baltas but needs only to work out a cleaner journey today to get into the winner’s circle. Prat back for the return mount. The speedy 8-Clock Tower ships west for trainer Wesley Ward, exiting a third-place effort in the G2 Bourbon at Keeneland on Oct. 6. The juvenile gelding has hit the board in all four career tries. 5-Lazlo makes his Southern California unveiling for trainer Jonathan Thomas, who has done well with his shippers this autumn seaside meet. This gelding finished a decent wide third at Woodbine in his most recent start against winners on Oct. 10.
Race #6: Selections: 6-2-4
Blinkers off 6-Thirsty Mama shortens up in distance today and drops out of the Golden State Juvenile Stakes into an N1x $80K optional claimer. The daughter of Stay Thirsty figures to fall into a favorable stalking trip this afternoon with Prat. 2-Pavel Is Appealing also drops into this softer spot this afternoon for Team O’Neill when finishing in front of Thirsty Mama in the stake mentioned above and is likely to bounce back to an effort like her Maiden-breaking debut score on Sept. 2. 4-Nell’s Legacy returns off a 3 ½-month break after a solid sprint winning turf debut on August 8. She’s bred to be just as effective over the main track for trainer Phil D’Amato.
Race #7: Selections: 11-9-3
A multiple G1 winner with four Triple digit Beyers on her resume, 11-Gina Romantica heads the Chad Brown-trained army of fillies and mares lined up for this year’s G1 edition of the Matriarch. This 6 for 16 5-year-old mare has banked $1.7 million and looks to end her fabulous career with back-to-back Grade 1 scores, exiting a decisive victory in the G1 First Lady at Keeneland on Oct. 5. The only potential obstacle is the tricky outside draw that jockey Jose Ortiz will need to negotiate. 9-Prerequisite shortens up to a mile off an improving Beyer pattern and makes the third start off the long layoff. This other Brown runner will likely get first jump on the deep closers. 3–Ag Bullet was just a neck shy of winning the G1 BC Turf Sprint and now stretches back out to a mile today for Baltas. This daughter of Twirling Candy is 6 for 11 lifetime and has stretched her speed to win at this distance on multiple occasions. She’ll need to slow things down up front this afternoon to have a legitimate chance, however. 12-Nadette (Fr) has the fastest TimeformUS late pace figure (123) in the field and should get plenty of live early pace to motor home into. She’s reunited with winning pilot Hector Berrios.
Race #8: Selections: 2-3-4
2-For All Mankind shortens back up to a sprint this afternoon for conditioner John Sadler and is eligible to bounce back to top form. The 5-year-old gelding was a 4 ¾-length winner over the strip sprinting back in August. 3-Fort Bragg finished a solid second versus a handful of these same rivals on Oct. 27 despite a wide taxing journey. That sharp effort makes this colt the horse to beat today for Baffert, making his third start of the form cycle. 4-Manitowish seeks his third consecutive victory for owner/trainer Martin Valenzuela and co-tops the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (87) off that last 12-1 upset. There’s a good chance he’ll offer solid betting value once again.
Race #9: Selections: 1-6-7
1-Charlie’s to Blame finished a good second in his grass debut on Oct. 13 and now stretches out to two turns for the first time with plenty of distance pedigree to work with. This son of Blame moves to the rail and should work out a solid journey with Hernandez replacing Rispoli, who landss on firster Baeza. 6-Baeza is a $1.2 million dollar son of multiple G1 winner McKinzie, who gets a solid 15% with his juvenile debuting prodigy. The pricey colt has trained swiftly in his a.m. drills for conditioner John Shirreffs, but this barn is a chilly 0 for 24 with grass debut runners in the past five years. 7-Tapit Dynasty finished a better-than-looks closing fifth behind Charlie’s to Blame in the aforementioned Oct. 13 event and is another colt bred to relish two turns.
