Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 4-Lord Bullingdon (Race 5)
Race #1: A tricky evenly-matched Maiden Special Weight turf route for juvenile colts starts the Sunday card. 4-Island Cruiser launched a solid four-wide rally to grab the place spot on the Nov. 2 debut for trainer John Sadler and figures to be tough right back with any normal second-out improvement. The $400k March OBS purchase by Catalina Cruiser should have little trouble handling today’s stretch-out. His stablemate 9-Tracker didn’t show much in his Oct. 21 debut but switches to turf this afternoon on the stretch-out and lures Prat. Sadler has solid dirt to turf second-time starter stats. 6-Nesso’s Lastharrah a runner-up in the last pair and co-tops the field’s best last-out grass Beyer after switching to turf Oct. 29.
Selections: 4-9-6
Race #2: The lightly raced 3-Always Smiling looks realistically placed for her first crack at winners coming off a recent $20k Maiden Claiming score on Nov. 12. She’ll make her first start for Team Miller today on the trainer switch. It took 13 starts but 1-Turquoise Bikini finally broke through the maiden ranks Oct. 22 and her winning Beyer figure matches up well against this suspect group. 5-Willamina returns off an extended layoff but finished second at this $16k claiming N2L level when last back in August 2022.
Selections: 3-1-5
Race #3: 4-Castle Leoch steps up off recent one-mile Santa Anita turf score for trainer George Papaprodromou and the country’s leading rider, Irad Ortiz Jr, who’s in town to ride in the grade 1 Matriarch, climbs aboard. 6-Goliad returns off the mini-freshening and just missed by a neck when nearly going gate-to-wire at this mile trip Aug. 19. The 6-year-old gelding owns the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (92). 7-Aligato has hit the board in six straight turf routes for conditioner Mark Glatt and is reunited with winning rider.
Selections: 4-6-7
Race #4: 2-Bring Him Home has yet to finish better than fourth in seven career starts but drops in for a first-time tag this afternoon for trainer Eric Kruljac on the turnback and is eligible to wake up in this softer spot. 7-Memes makes career start number 13 today but comes off a decent runner-up try at this level Nov. 11. 6-Quincy Market beaten nearly 30 lengths in both starts, the 3-year-old returns as a first-time gelding on the class drop and shows an improved four-furlong drill Nov. 27.
Selections: 2-7-6
Race #5: 4–Lord Bullingdon was ultra-impressive in his recent victory in the Qatar Golden Mile Stakes Nov. 3 on the Friday BC undercard. The son of Lord Nelson stumbled out of the gate, raced five-wide, and then went on to score by 3 ¾ widening lengths while going today’s one-mile trip. 5-Invincible goes two sprints to a route today for Team O’Neill and this juvenile colt might find himself on an easy uncontested lead this afternoon. A strong gate-to-wire threat. 9–Stay Hot drops out of the grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf into this softer spot and is the one to beat based on the last pair of grass Beyer(s).
Selections: 4-5-9
Race #6: First-time gelding 3-Ambiguousgoes turf to dirt and drops from MDSW to Maiden claimers today for trainer Peter Miller. This lucrative jockey-trainer combo is 7 for 11 (64%) with a lofty $4.18 ROI the past four years with this substantial class drop at Del Mar. 6-Sharpazano removes the blinkers and makes the second start for a tag today for trainer Mark Glatt. 8-Express Line is quickly dropped in for a $50k tag and gelded in start number two after costing $425K at the Keeneland September sale. A somewhat unusual maneuver for this barn.
Selections: 3-6-8
Race #7: Trainer Chad Brown has four bullets in this year’s edition of the grade 1 Matriarch. In a race that’s projected by TimeformUS to be run rather swiftly in the early stages, things should set up kindly for 10-Fluffy Socks. The multiple grade 2 winner has run well over this turf course, makes the second start off the bench, and gets Irad Ortiz for today’s cut back to a mile where she’s 3-1-0 from four starts. Her stablemate 3-Surge Capacity has won three of four career starts and looks primed to step up and compete at this grade-1 level after a sharp-looking win in the grade 3 Valley View at Keeneland Oct. 27. She’ll likely offer decent value. 1-Elounda Queen (Ire) makes the second stateside start and the first for the D’Amato barn off a non-threatening effort in the grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland. A four-time winner overseas, this filly has trained well here in Southern California and is likely to show more in her second U.S. effort. She should trip out nicely with today’s rail draw.
Selections: 10-3-1
Race #8: 4-Bossy Bruin Gal turns back to a sprint this afternoon for Team O’Neill making career start number seven and has simply run much faster than these in her last pair of dirt tries. 3-California Code adds blinkers and makes a second start for a tag for trainer Peter Miller when finishing a wide third in her most recent try. The Honor Code filly gets a big jockey upgrade to Rosario today. 2-I Want Ruffles is by multiple grade 1 winner Midshipman and debuts for a barn that’s capable of firing with a firster.
Selections: 4-3-2
Race #9: 10-Santo Dios (Arg) must negotiate today’s outside draw but showed good early speed in his U.S. debut Nov. 5 when holding on for second, and figures to be dangerous today with a potential move forward off that encouraging try. Smith is likley to work out a decent trip despite the outside draw. 1-Miranda Rights has run some decent turf route efforts for trainer Mark Casse and should be able to work out a decent trip with today’s rail draw and Prat climbing aboard. The late-closing 2-Legislator steps up off Nov. 5 Maiden victory but has run turf Beyer numbers that can more than compete with this group. Rosario replaces Prat who lands on Miranda Rights.
Selections: 10-1-2
