Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 9-Atomic Drop (Race 1)
Race #1: It’s that special time of the year for Southern California racing as Del Mar kicks off its 85th race meet on Saturday! The spectacular 31-race day session runs through September 8 with 39 stakes races scheduled.
9-Atomic Drop stretches back out off of the Mark Glatt May 27 purchase and this barn is a strong 6 for 14 (43%) with a $3.56 ROI with new acquisitions routing at Del Mar the past five years. This 6-year-old has an excellent chance of shaking free here despite the outside draw. 2-Stop and a Tres returns to a mile this afternoon, where he was a solid 2 ¼-length winner two-back against softer. The 9-year-old veteran gelding 5-Big Buzz is a multiple winner over the track and distance but will need adequate pace to close into. We’re not entirely convinced that he’ll get that this afternoon.
Selections: 9-2-5
Race #2: 4-Getaway Car is a $700K Keeneland purchase by multiple grade 1 winner Curlin, who gets an ordinary 11% with his juvenile debuting prodigy. This pricey colt debuts for trainer Bob Baffert off a strong worktab and lures Hernandez, indicating he’s likely well-meant this afternoon. 6-Dr Ruben M is a logical threat in start number two today after flashing good speed and coming up just a nose short in his June 13 turf sprint unveiling. The son of Vino Russo adds blinkers, moves to the main track, and fired off a “best of 104” four-furlong bullet drill on July 14 for Team O’Neill. His stablemate 3-Rank (by grade 1 winner Honor A.P.) worked in partnership with Dr Ruben M in the after-mentioned flashy July 14 drill in :46.2.
Selections: 4-6-3
Race #3: 4-Nesso’s Lastharrah has won three of his last four sprint tries for Mullins and is making his second start off the layoff. The 3-year-old colt owns the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (90). 8-Mas Rapido (GB) may be 0 for 4 on the Del Mar lawn but should get a fairly live race flow to close into this afternoon for winning veteran connections. A winner over this grass course, 6-Please Focus, adds blinkers today for trainer George Lopez and is 2 for 3 going today’s five furlong trip. The 4-year-old gelding has shown the ability to sit and pounce which might serve him well in this spot.
Selections: 4-8-6
Race #4: A beaten favorite in the last 6-De’ Medici is likely to rebound today for trainer Michael McCarthy and new pilot Juan Hernandez. The 3-year-old gelding projects to be forwardly placed this afternoon and returned to work a strong five-furlong bullet in :58.4 on July 12. 8-Mucino was a good second on June 16 when finishing in front of today’s top choice and now makes his second start off the seven-month freshening. The 1 for 21 4-Mischelof (Chi) has run several competitive figures that match up well against this group and can easily be part of the underneath vertical exotics.
Selections: 6-8-4
Race #5: 5-In Theory makes her first start on turf today for trainer Bob Baffert after showing solid ability in all three main track tries at Santa Anita this spring. The 3-year-old filly has good speed and is by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Mendelssohn. 3-Shiloh’s Mistress was a disappointing seventh and last in her most recent try on June 1 in the grade 3 Honeymoon but is eligible to return to form today for McCarthy. This filly just missed in a game try two-back in the Providencia with Rispoli going longer. 7-Soho goes two sprints to a route this afternoon for Sadler while exiting a troubled trip fifth place finish on June 13. This daughter of City of Light has worked extremely well since that last effort and should be primed for a big effort today, making the third start of the form cycle.
Selections: 5-3-7
Race #6: 2-Cayucos debuts for trainer Richard Mandella off some solid a.m. drills and is by win-early sire Omaha Beach, who gets a strong 23% with his 2-year-old debuting prodigy. 3-America’s Mark (by American Pharoah) debuts for Northern California-based conditioner Steven Specht who has solid overall numbers with his first time starting juveniles. This filly has been working sharply at Pleasanton. 5-Pavel’s Etoile moves back to the dirt while making the all-important third career start for trainer Antonio Garcia. She faces all Cal-bred fillies today and should find this to be an easier spot.
Selections: 2-3-5
Race #7: 4-Guy Named Joe stretches back out to his preferred one-mile trip for trainer Doug O’Neill and should get plenty of pace to close into. This son of American Pharoah is proven over this turf course and arrives on the scene today fresh and fit with a top rider in tow. Upset chance. 2-Formidable Man returns to Southern California this afternoon off back-to-back turf route tries at Churchill, which included a strong second-place finish in the grade 2 American Turf two-back. He cuts back to a mile this afternoon, is reunited with the winning rider, and is proven over the Del Mar grass course. 6-We’re in Trouble is 2 for 2 to start her career and now tries two turns for the first time today for conditioner Michael McCarthy. Her improving Beyer pattern and room for further development make her today’s main threat in the Oceanside.
Selections: 4-2-6
Race #8: 7-Angier goes turf to dirt in his second career start after finishing an even fifth in his May 5 unveiling. The $450K Keeneland purchase by Good Magic is eligible to move forward this afternoon with the switch to the main track for Baffert, who has won with his last pair of turf-to-dirt second-time starters. The colt’s main track drills have been super solid. His stablemate is the grade 1-placed Maiden 2-Mirahmadi, who returns from a two-month mini-freshening off a series of solid a.m. drills. 6-Santarena has run second in the last three sprint tries for conditioner Mark Glatt and is a logical fit once again based on Beyer figures and consistency.
Selections: 7-2-6
Race #9: The undefeated lightly raced 6-Iscreamuscream gets a stiff class test this afternoon seeking her third straight score for D’Amato, but is bred to successfully handle two turns and has trained exceptionally well since her last win on June 13. Her stablemate, 9-Zona Verde (Ire), is 2 for 2 over this grass course and has been freshened since a disappointing try in the Angels Flight Stakes back on April 7. Today’s likely favorite is the grade 3 winning and battle-tested 10-Medoro, who looks to remain undefeated for trainer Peter Eurton, having rattled off four straight scores at various distances. This daughter of Honor Code will need to work out a trip from post 10, however.
Selections: 6-9-10
Race #10: The ultra-consistent 5-year-old gelding 3-Thorne House has been plagued by layoff lines but goes turf to dirt this afternoon for trainer Dean Pederson and is a perfect 2 for 2 over this main track. This gelding has hit the board in seven of eight career tries and should only build off his recent runner-up turf sprint finish back on May 27. The speedy 6-Money Run steps up in class off the Peter Miller claim at Churchill and should be able to establish a clear lead this afternoon. The Runhappy colt exits a sharp 3 ¼-length win on June 14 and has trained well at San Luis Rey since then. First-time gelding 4-Navy Man returns off an eight-month layoff with an encouraging worktab for a good layoff barn and lures Hernandez.
Selections: 3-6-4
Race #11: 3-Joyrider (by Kitten’s Joy) was away slowly in his June 1 debut but managed to make up significant ground late despite the tardy break and should appreciate today’s stretch out to a mile. This barn is a strong 4 for 13 (31%) at Del Mar with second-time turf route starters. Blinkers off 6-Middleburg ran well for Baffert in his first grass try on June 1 when battling gamely to finish third. The Tapit colt co-tops the field’s best last out Beyer (73). 1-Broheim ran well in his first turf try on June 8 when finishing willingly for second and has the breeding to suggest that today’s stretch out to two turns is where he might feel most comfortable. Today’s third career try should be his best to date.
Selections: 3-6-1
