Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Master Piece (Chi) (Race 9)
Race #1: 1-Myfavoritedaughter has done most of her running on turf but drops to a career-low this afternoon for trainer Vladimir Cerin off the 4 ½-month freshening. She has trained sharply over the main track in recent weeks. 2-Flatterwithjewels exited an eight-length blowout runaway win on June 14 going this one-mile trip at Santa Anita and is an obvious threat right back. 6-Dramatizer stretches back out to two turns today, where she was a 9 ½-length dominating winner three-back.
Selections: 1-2-6
Race #2: 3-Make It a Large debuts for trainer Brian Koriner, who is a solid 3 for 14 (21%) with a $2.34 ROI with debuting sprint turf runners the past five years at Del Mar. This new face is worth a flier in what appears to be a very wide-open affair. 10-Capital Outlay has run third in the last three consecutive races after flashing good early zip and tiring in each of those starts. The 3-year-old gelding shortens back up to five furlongs this afternoon and is a big threat again for trainer Peter Miller if able to shake loose. 1-No More Ding Dongs moves back to the turf for the all-important third career try after showing some solid ability in both starts to date for conditioner Sean McCarthy.
Selections: 3-10-1
Race #3: 6-Emerald Bay is a $700K Keeneland September 2023 purchase by Nyquist, who gets a solid 17% with his debuting prodigy. The Baffert juvenile has trained sharply for today’s unveiling and is perfectly drawn outside. 5-McKinzie Street (by multiple grade 1 winner McKinzie) shows some speedy a.m. drills for trainer Tim Yakteen, including a :47 flat gate drill on July 21. 1-Cano for the Win is by multiple grade 1 winner Omaha Beach, who gets a strong 24% with his juvenile debuting prodigy. The 2-year-old colt must negotiate the tricky rail draw but has trained well for Team O’Neill.
Selections: 6-5-1
Race #4: 4-Ultimate Gamble moves up in class off an impressive 6 ¼-length score for trainer Mark Glatt on June 16 and now makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon while exiting a career-best Beyer (92). The 4-year-old colt could sit a favorable stalking trip today just off the frontrunners. 5-Parenting looks to extend his winless streak to three for Team Baffert after back-to-back game victories. The son of Justify was an impressive 7 ½-length winner when trying two turns for the first time on June 9 and has continued to train sharply in his a.m. drills since that blowout effort. His stablemate, 1-Cowboy Mike, just missed by a neck in a game try two-back at this level when finishing behind Hero Status.
Selections: 4-5-1
Race #5: Florida invader 3-Mamba On Three sports some of the fastest grass sprint Beyers in this field and lures Hernandez for his Southern California unveiling. The 7-time winning 6-year-old gelding figures for an up-front favorable pressing trip. A multiple winner over the track and distance, 8-Give Me the Lute loses Hernandez to the top choice, but there’s no denying this 8-year-old’s gameness and grit as an 11-time victor from 34 tries. 2-Time to Party goes first off the claim for trainer Kelly Bainum, who has a win and a second in two tries to start this seaside meet.
Selections: 3-8-2
Race #6: Recent Maiden graduate 8-Discrepancy broke through in start number nine on July 7 with a game win going this 6 ½-furlong trip and looks well-placed to perhaps take two straight after posting the field’s best last-out main track Beyer. 7-Danzing Cat slashes her claiming tag in half for conditioner Peter Miller while making her third start off the bench. The 4-year-old filly flashed speed and tired in both starts this year but has a good chance of holding on this afternoon on the class plunge. 9-Norah’s Princess returns at this reduced level off a 10-month layoff for trainer Craig Lewis off a steady but mediocre work tab.
Selections: 8-7-9
Race #7: 9-Vodka Vodka exits back-to-back runner-up grass route tries at this level at Santa Anita and now returns off the mini-freshening for low-profile connections. This 3-year-old colt has enough speed to get a favorable upfront trip today despite the outside draw. 7-Fight Back finished an okay fifth in his June 7 debut despite a tardy break and is eligible to move forward in start number two for trainer Simon Callaghan. 10-Stylishlyacclaimed hasn’t been out in 15 months for trainer Carla Gaines after finishing sixth in his lone effort at Santa Anita last April. This barn has had some success with these long layoff grass routers in the past, so this gelding might be worth inclusion on your spread vertical exotics in what appears (at least on paper) to be a wide-open race.
Selections: 9-7-10
Race #8: 5-Arrowmax hasn’t been seen in 11 months for conditioner Mark Glatt but returns off this long layoff for a first-time tag today, and this barn has had good success with this maneuver in the past. Glatt’s 4 for 12 (33%) with a $3.58 ROI the past four years with MDSW to Maiden Claiming dropdowns with horses returning off >180 days rest. He’s as good as any in here and the price should be right. 6-Mongolian Champ finished third behind two next-out winners when dropping to this reduced level five months ago. The 3-year-old colt gets in light this afternoon for his second try around two turns. 8-Supreme Coast has not shown a whole lot to date but moves back to dirt and switches to Hernandez.
Selections: 5-6-8
Race #9: A dominating 16-1 winner of this event in 2022, 2-Master Piece (Chi) returns to the West Coast in sharp form just having won the Grade 2 Fort Marcy at Aqueduct over Charlie Appleby’s next-out multiple stakes winner Ottoman Fleet (GB). The 8-year-old is nicely drawn inside and loves this course and distance. The red-hot Dylan Davis is in for the ride. The late-charging 4-Easter (Fr) adds blinkers this afternoon after having too much ground to make up in his last sixth-place finish in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. The multiple grade 2 winner is 1 for 1 over this grass course. A recent winner of the aforementioned G1 Shoemaker Mile 9-Johannes arrives here this afternoon in career-best form for trainer Tim Yakteen, having won five of his last six since switching to turf. He co-tops the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (101).
Selections: 2-4-9
Race #10: East Coast shipper 1-Anna’s Wish returns here off a four-month freshening for a new barn and an encouraging worktab. If she can run back to that (78) Beyer figure from two-back, she’ll be tough to handle against this group. 3-Don’t Worry Boss broke his Maiden over this course last July and now adds blinkers this afternoon while making her second start off the bench. A popular commodity at the claiming box in recent months, 4-Satellite Heart now makes her first start for conditioner George Papaprodromou. This filly won her debut over this strip last August and should get an adequate pace to close into.
Selections: 1-3-4
Race #11: Dirt to turf 1-Court Snort has been equally effective whether she’s on dirt or turf and should get a live race flow to close into today. The ultra-consistent 4-year-old filly has won three of her last five starts. 2-Runamileinmyshoes steps up off sharp-looking 4 ½-length Maiden score on June 15. 7-Jessebear was a troubled trip third in her most recent try back on May 31 when facing similar. She should be rallying strongly through the lane.
Selections: 1-2-7
