Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-I’m Still In It (Race 3)
Race #1: Florida invader 8-Sophistry is one of two fillies in here with racing experience. She flashed good speed in her June 23 well-backed debut at Gulfstream before tiring to finish second. She moves to grass this afternoon, is nicely drawn outside, and gets an aggressive gate pilot. 6-Supa Speed is a $460K Keeneland purchase by multiple grade-1 winner Justify, who gets a solid 19% with his juvenile debuting prodigy and 15% with tuft sprint runners. This filly has worked well in her a.m. drills for a lucrative jockey-trainer combo. 3-Naples Gal is by War Front and has drilled well for today’s unveiling for trainer Richard Mandella.
Selections: 8-6-3
Race #2: If TimeformUS‘s projected swift early pace comes to fruition, things should set up quite nicely for 7-Bright Leaf. The 5-year-old drops back in for a tag for Sadler, and was a winner facing similar going this one-mile trip two-back. He sports the field’s best last-out Beyer, which adds to the appeal. Trainer Steve Sherman’s 3-American Farmer has spent most of his career racing on synthetic at Golden Gate, but is another who likes to rally strongly in the late stages. He should also get a favorable set-up. 2-It’s My House appears to be the speed of the speed for Knapp and exits a sharp gate-to-wire win on June 29 at Los Al. The 6-year-old gelding is 3 for 9 going a mile.
Selections: 7-3-2
Race #3: 3-I’m Still In It returns off the mini-freshening for Glatt, making her second start on dirt and at this bottom $20k Maiden Claiming level. The daughter of Empire Maker finished second at this level on May 10, and this barn has some solid stats (3 for 9/7 for 9 ITM) with horses stretching out and returning off 61 to 180 days’ rest. 6-Girlcanthelpit hasn’t broken cleanly in all her six starts to date but drops to a career-low this afternoon for Sadler. 10-One Arrow lost all chance when the saddled slipped and was pulled up when last seen routing on grass back in March at Santa Anita. This 5-year-old mare makes her first start on dirt today for Drysdale, and is worth considering on the class drop and surface switch.
Selections: 3-6-10
Race #4: 2-Excelia (Ire) has been plagued by layoff lines for most of her stateside career for D’Amato but exits a career-best turf Beyer (83) when last seen back on May 5 when facing Just Nails. She came up just a neck short in a blanket finish and could quickly reverse that decision, shortening up to five furlongs. 5-Just Nails exits back-to-back game runner-up finishes for Team O’Neill and is a proven winner over this turf course. 8-Gem Mine returns off a seven-month freshening for a good layoff barn and projects to get a favorable pressing trip from the outside.
Selections: 2-5-8
Race #5: The speedy 3-Sing a Happy Song drops in for a tag this afternoon off the mini-freshening for conditioner Andy Mathis and will prove challenging to catch over the main track that has been speed-friendly thus far over the first week of racing. Today, the 4-year-old Stanford filly switches from the Golden Gate synthetic to the main track, which should suit her well. Turf to dirt 1-Champagne Camie makes her third start of the form cycle today for trainer Vladimir Cerin after returning to win off an extended layoff back on June 1. She’s by Speightster, who gets a solid 18% with dirt sprint runners and will give the top choice all she can handle today dropping in for a career-low claiming tag. 5-Slam Diego hasn’t been seen since a voided claim 11 months ago but has trained steadily for today’s return try and is a multiple winner over this racetrack.
Selections: 3-1-5
Race #6: 2-Mighty Kai returns as a first-time gelding off the mini-freshening and should get adequate pace to close into this afternoon. The 3-year-old switches to red-hot excellent turf pilot Hector Berrios. 8-Tribal steps up off a sharp-looking game turf Maiden score on June 14, where he earned a solid Beyer figure (79), which matches up well against this $32k claiming group. 1-What a Dude is winless since November 2022 but is nicely drawn inside today for what should be a favorable ground-saving trip and returns to his preferred 1 1/16-mile distance.
Selections: 2-8-1
Race #7: The super-speedy filly 3-Smiling Lady exits a sharp 3 ¼ length gate-to-wire score at Pleasanton on June 22 over a pair of next-out winners where she earned a field’s best (76) Beyer figure. She’s reunited with jockey Armando Ayuso today, who has been aboard for two of her five career wins. 2-Loretta Lynn returns off an 8-week mini-freshening for D’Amato after finishing third in the Melair Stakes on May 25. The 3-year-old Grazen filly has trained exceptionally well since that effort and looms a big chance today on the class drop. 4-Stellar Cap drew off to an impressive six-length 12-1 upset debut win at Los Al on June 29, defeating next-out winning filly Donita Rose. Despite her top-heavy sprint pedigree, she might take to the two turns.
Selections: 3-2-1
Race #8: 3-Red Cross Knight has been the gem of consistency for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, going (5-3-2) from 12 career tries, and has been just as effective on dirt or turf. The 4-year-old colt draws inside this afternoon and projects to get another favorable up-close pressing trip on or close to the lead. Dirt to turf 10-Enjoy It Strait must negotiate today’s outside draw but goes second off the claim for trainer Peter Miller and has run well over grass (overall) despite limited starts. The gelding is a 9-time winner and switches to Hernandez this afternoon. 7-Clooney has run well in both dirt starts this year, and his last turf try (albeit back in Feb. 2023) was an OK closing fourth. The gelding makes his third start of the form cycle this afternoon for conditioner Steve Knapp.
Selections: 3-10-7
