Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Jasmine (Race 1)
Race #1: Selections: 5-7-2
5-Jasmine has flashed improved speed since stretching out on turf, and now drops in for a first-time tag for trainer Peter Eurton. The 3-year-old daughter of Bolt d’Oro is likely to last a lot longer on the front end this afternoon with the class relief, and drilled a nice “best of 82” main track bullet four furlongs in :46.4 since that last try back on July 17. 7-Silkie Sevei (Ire) closed willingly for the runner-up spot when dropped in for the $50k tag Aug. 1 and is a logical threat right back versus similar. The other D’Amato filly, 2-Caves, gathered momentum from a solid ground-saving journey to snag the place spot at 16-1 in last and is dangerous with a similar effort.
Race #2: Selections: 2-1-5
The Michael McCarthy-trained 2-Sudden Impact is a pricey $950k FTS purchase by Not This Time, who gets a solid 17% with his debuting prodigy. This juvenile colt has trained swiftly in the a.m., including a second-best of 113 and 93 workers on Aug. 2 and Aug. 15. 1-Lunar Velocity steps up into the MDSW ranks, exiting an even fourth on debut Aug. 7. The Miller barn has solid stats with second-time dirt route runners going 4-for-9 (44%) with a $3.38 ROI the past five years. 5-Ms Liu (by Greatest Honour) ships in from Saratoga off a disappointing run on July 25 when flashing brief speed and tiring badly to finish last for trainer Jena Antonucci. The filly ran an OK third on debut at Aqueduct, adds blinkers today, and lures Hernandez for her first try in Southern California. She’s likely to rebound in this spot.
Race #3: Selections: 6-7-2-11
An interesting field of nine well-bred juvenile colts line up in this five-furlong turf sprint dash. 6-Repo Man is by Grade 1 winner Golden Pal and hails from the Michael McCarthy barn. Golden Pal gets 19% with firsters and 21% with turf sprinters. A sharp gate drill on Aug. 20 catches the eye and lures Rispoli at first asking. 7-Hoaxer is by multiple Grade 1 winner Charlatan, who gets an ordinary 10% with juvenile debut runners but an above-average 19% with turf sprinters. This colt has trained well for Team Baffert, but the barn is only 1-for-30 with grass debut runners in the past four years. His stablemate 2-San Moritz is a $600k Keeneland purchase by Not This Time-17% juvenile debut runners/16% grass sprinters. He’s also trained like a good thing. The Miller-trained 11-You Want Some drops into the Maiden Special Weight ranks after trying the Best Pal (G3) on debut on Aug. 8, when flashing speed and finishing a well-beaten fifth. The juvenile colt by Volatile came back to work well in the interim on Aug. 18. 4-Movingwithpurpose (by Twirling Candy) has been firing bullets over at San Luis Rey for Baltas.
Race #4: Selections: 5-4-7
The speedy 5-Liam Smith has won two of his last three starts and gets back to the main track today off a speed and fade to third in his first grass attempt on July 31. Both dirt wins at 6 ½ furlongs, two- and three-back, earned this colt top Beyer figures of 90 and 89. 4-Fionello is 0-for 4 at Del Mar, but drops out of a series of small stakes into today’s 50k tag and has the right late-closing running style to capitalize on this afternoon’s projected spirited early race flow. 7-Opus Uno returns off a seven-month layoff for trainer Peter Miller and was a maiden winner over this course last September. The gelded son of Vino Rosso has trained steadily for today’s return to action.
Race #5: Selections: 4-2-3
Irish import 4-Jet Black Jewel (Ire) drops in for a first-time tag this afternoon for conditioner Bob Hess, off an improving Beyer pattern, and switches to jockey Juan Hernandez. The Doug O’Neill-trained 2-Velvet Reign (Ire) moves inside with solid early speed and looks ready for a top effort today, making her third start Stateside. The 3-year-old filly makes her third start off the layoff and has worked well since that last third-place effort on July 30. 3-Astronomically (Ire) (by No Nay Never) goes first off the D’Amato claim after a pair of subpar Stateside tries, but this barn has a solid percentage when they do jump in and claim runners. She could be ready for a top try today, making her third start in Southern California and switching to Rosario.
Race #6: Selections: 1-2-6
1-The Big Cheeseola is winless at Del Mar (0-for-8) but has solid early zip to coincide with today’s rail draw and exits a career-best main track Beyer (80) with his recent second on Aug. 2. 2-Y’a’ll Come has been a popular commodity at the claiming box and now starts for conditioner Ian Kruljac off the recent score and purchase on July 18. 6-Gypsy Tears got the best of the top choice in last when taking a sizable class drop for trainer Val Brinkerhoff, earning the field’s best last-out 82 Beyer, which is above par for this $12,500 claiming level. This 7-year-old has never strung wins together in 33 lifetime starts, however.
Race #7: Selections: 8-7-1
8-Lanilla has hit the board in five of six career tries for conditioner Vladimir Cerin and finished well to grab the runner-up spot ahead of several of these on July 30. The 4-year-old filly by English Channel has seen her Beyer improve with each subsequent try and needs only to work out a good trip to get back into the winner’s circle. A beaten favorite in the last pair, 7-Cat The Confidante (Ire) makes her second try off the eight-month layoff for trainer John Sadler and is likely to move forward this afternoon with that race under her belt. 1-Winika broke through in start number six with a sharp maiden-claiming score on July 30 and now steps up to face winners with a favorable inside rail draw. Hernandez sticks, and she’ll likely be sent along for early position.
Race #8: Selections: 5-6-3
5-Stay for the Boom goes two sprints to a route today and drops back down to the $16k N3L level, where he just missed by a neck two back over a pair of today’s returning rivals. The sophomore switches to Hernandez for conditioner Christopher David. 6-Mio Bambino rallied for the place spot from far back on July 30 (defeating several of these), and now goes first off the Dean Pederson claim. This barn has solid stats from a small sample with new acquisitions (3-for-9/33%;$2.16 ROI). The best last-out main-track Beyer (77) adds to the appeal. The speedy 3-Bowtie Boys stumbled badly at the start, losing all realistic chance when well-beaten in the aforementioned July 30 event. The 5-year-old gelded son of Frosted is dangerous with a better break.
