PTF here. We are welcome to welcome a new contributor to the extended ITM family, Chris Ladabouche. He’s a regular viewer and listener who is also a hockey coach, tax professional, and rabid racing fan. I liked his analysis of FG on Saturday and am proud to share it with you. Take it away, Chris!
Selections and Analysis by Chris Ladabouche
Overview
Saturday’s racing card at Fair Grounds features several promising contenders with ambitions for the Derby and Oaks trail. The late Pick 5 sequence is composed entirely of stakes races, presenting competitive fields and culminating with a derby hopeful who is the half-brother of Sierra Leone.
(Selections are organized using the A/B/C methodology for clarity.)
Race 8 – Analysis and Selections
Selections: A) 9,2 B) 1,4 C) 5,7,8
Race 8 kicks off the Pick 5 sequence with a wide-open field. Multiple horses are used to begin the wager:
- 9 Cupids Crush – The top choice, not selected because of the Valentine’s Day swami angle, rather for her recent performance. In her last race, Cupids Crush did all the work and was just beaten at the wire after a determined effort. Expect a good stalking trip from the outside and a chance to make the first move.
- 2 Oversubscribed – Returned from a year-long layoff to win a stakes race at Aqueduct in late November. While another short layoff is a concern, in Brown we trust.
Additional contenders include:
- 1 Medoro – Previously beat Cupids Crush and, on her best day, is capable despite needing to catch the top pair.
- 4 Expensive Queen – Has won two of three starts since arriving from Europe and is expected to finish strongly.
As backup options, 5 Lucky Speech, 7 Mo Expectations, and 8 Feather Boa are used in case the race falls apart, which is possible given the shape of the field.
Race 9 – Analysis and Selections
Selections: A) 2,6 B) 5
This race centers around 2 horses. The first is a lightly raced, up-and-coming four-year-old and the other is a seasoned veteran with nearly $9 million in earnings:
- 2 Accelerize – An improving four-year-old from the Pletcher barn, likely to set the pace. He was very determined in the Grade 3 Louisiana at Fair Grounds, holding off the talented Cox runner, Just a Touch. The main challenge will come from the ultra-talented 6 Hit Show.
- 6 Hit Show – The clear class of the field, boasting seven graded stakes wins and expected to be tough competition for Accelerize down the stretch. A must include.
- 5 Time to Win – The lone “B”, as won his last two for Brown, with an impressive Beyer figure two races back. Though untested beyond a mile, he is in good form and training well.
Race 10 – Analysis and Selections
Selections: A) 7 B) 2,9
This competitive field features several contenders, but special attention is given to Kapuna:
- 7 Kapuna – Highly regarded and is coming off an impressive win against several rivals in this field. Since being claimed by Flying P and moved to Norm Casse’s barn with a switch to turf, Kapuna has thrived. He should benefit from a favorable setup and is expected to pass the field at the wire.
- 2 Brilliant Berti – A talented runner for Cherie DeVaux, returning from a 133-day layoff. Previous poor performances at Fair Grounds and the distance are concerns.
- 9 Lagynos – Another quality horse who has notched just one win in his last nine starts, often settling for minor awards, but remains capable at his best.
Race 11 – Analysis and Selections
Selections: A) 1,7 B) 3,5,6
Race 11 offers several possible choices, but two stand out:
- 1 Just Singing – Top pick, who finished strongly in the Golden Rod and just missed. She should enjoy a rail trip and be positioned to close late and should be running in the lane.
- 7 Majestical – Recently broke her maiden in impressive fashion. Trained by Peter Eurton, who is having a strong meet at Fair Grounds. With a favorable outside draw, she should secure a good position sitting behind the leaders.
Other contenders:
- 3 Bella Ballerina – Undefeated in two starts and could be dangerous if allowed to set the pace, though likely to face pressure from other front-runners.
- 6 Luv Your Neighbor – The field’s most experienced runner, has four solid dirt races. Picking up jockey Luis Saez and with the added distance, she could deliver a big effort.
- 5 Powered by Family – Owns the best last-out Beyer, achieved in muddy conditions. She finished strongly last time, but slow starts in both of her races are a concern for her chances late and ultimately might end up having too much to do down the stretch.
Race 12 – Analysis and Selections
Selections: A) 4 B) 7,2
The featured Risen Star Stakes looks very similar to the 2024 edition, when Brown shipped in Sierra Leone. This year, the Brown trained 3yo, 4 Paladin—Sierra Leone’s half-brother—is the focus:
- 4 Paladin – A $1.9 million purchase, impressed in winning the Remsen at Aqueduct and has been training very well. Distance is not an issue, and all signs point to a strong showing and another potential Brown superstar.
- 7 Courting – The wildcard, with a purchase price of $5 million, expectations have been high, but results underwhelming. He gets another chance, and the addition of blinkers, plus a change of scenery from New York may help.
- 2 Golden Tempo – Locally based for Cherie DeVaux, undefeated in two starts at Fair Grounds. He has shown an ability to pass horses, but faces a class test here. It’s wise not to dismiss anything from this barn.
Wager Structure
Bets: ($0.50 wager) Pick 5 Play: Total Play is $197
- All A’s $4 x 8 times = $32
- A’s with One B = $28 x 3 times= $84
- A’s with Two B’s = $75
- A’s with One C = $6
The ticket is structured using the traditional A/B/C method, focusing on the strongest contenders in each race. The tickets represent how I will play the sequence and was built around a $200 Budget. The focus on this sequence will be on the All “A” tickets and the A’s with One B tickets. Always play within your budget and Good Luck!
