The first of the 105 point Derby Prep Races is the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Stakes, and in recent years, this nine furlong test has become a prime prep race for the Triple Crown Series. Some of the recent winners in this race include Gun Runner, Girvin, War of Will, Mandaloun, Epicenter, Angel of Empire, and Sierra Leone, Lawyer Ron, and Mucho Macho Magnitude put on a show in this race last year, and while an injury derailed his Triple Crown bid, he still looks like a promising four year old for this season. Chad Brown will saddle the favorite, Paladin, who makes his 2026 debut after scoring in the Remsen back in December. Brown’s former assistant, Cherie DeVaux, sends out Golden Tempo, who looks to build off of his win in the Lecomte Stakes last month. Post time for this race that all but guarantees a spot in the Derby Starting Gate for the winner, is set for 5:30 (CST).
Fair Grounds, Saturday 2/14/24, Race 12: The G2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes
105 Total Derby points (50-25-15-10-5)
1 – Universe (8-1 ML, 75-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): After misfiring in the Smarty Jones Stakes in his last start, Ken McPeek opted to keep this son of Global Campaign in New Orleans, where he has been based this winter, for his next start. He accumulated a handful of points as a two year old when finishing in the money in the Champagne, the Street Sense, and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. However, he never looked like a winner in any of those three races. His line win came at seven furlongs, and his two turn efforts have been a little flat. He’s adding distance and facing some horses that have beautiful pedigrees, and in theory, they figure to be much more comfortable at this nine furlong distance. Perhaps adding blinkers will help him, especially at the start. That was an issue in Arkansas last out when he also drew the rail. I’m not seeing the upside with this colt here.
2 – Golden Tempo (3-1 ML, 25-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Cherie DeVaux’s colt looks like a horse that can run all day, but it definitely takes him a while to get going. Perhaps the Fair Grounds, with the long stretch here, is a perfect track for him though. In both of his starts here, he was seven lengths behind the leader at the top of the stretch. Both times he found another gear and cruised by the entire field, going from last to first. That’s not the easiest way to win races, but the stretching out to nine furlongs should only help his cause. He passed a lot of tests when winning the Lecomte Stakes last month, and he figures to be able to take another step forward in his third career start.
3 – Carson Street (8-1 ML, 125-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): I was impressed with the effort that this Street Sense colt put forth in the Lecomte last time out while facing winners for the first time. He broke near the rail in that race and was under pressure every step of the way. He put away the Ohio bred, Crown the Buckeye, and he kept finishing on the lead. He fought bravely, but he couldn’t quite hold off Golden Tempo and Mesquite. He held on for third, finishing only a length behind the winner while clearly outrunning his 15-1 post time odds. Ben Curtis rode his stablemate who finished off the board in the Lecomte, but he’ll come back aboard today. He was in the irons for his dominating 11 length win in an off the turf maiden allowance race here in December. There is less speed signed on for this race and when looking at his speed figures, he could be eligible to move forward in this start. The blinkers are coming off Chip Honcho, and that one is getting a new rider. I think that’s significant because I do think it could set up a scenario where he is the uncontested leader when they start their run up the backstretch. I think he’s one of the sneakier longshots in this race.
4 – Paladin (8-5 ML, 8-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): After winning via disqualification in his debut race, this 1.9 million dollar son of Gun Runner entered the starting gate in the Remsen as the 9-5 post time favorite. He sat a cozy trip, just off the lead, but his rivals were trying their best to get him pinned in there. He was able to tip out into the four path on the turn. Renegade, who was an easy winner of the Sam F. Davis last week, got the jump on him, but this colt drew even and then powered clear to win by two lengths. Chad Brown has come to like using this race for his better horses, so it was no surprise to see his name appear in the entry box when this race was drawn last week. He will have a new rider today as Flavien Prat, who has ridden him both times, will be in Saudi Arabia to ride Nysos in the Saudi Cup. Tyler Gaffalione will pick up the mount this afternoon. Brown employed Gaffalione to ride Sierra Leone for this first time in this race back in 2024 and that decision worked out pretty well. After the defection of Ted Noffey from the Derby, he has become the favorite in the futures wagering at the moment. However, I can’t endorse taking 8-1 on anyone in this crop at this point in the season. Regardless, he is the one to beat in this race.
5 – Chip Honcho (6-1 ML, 85-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): On one hand, I think this colt’s 4th place effort in the Lecomte Stakes last month is better than it looks on paper. He was a bit tardy from the gate, and then he was hung out to dry going five wide into the first turn. He was aggressively pressing the pace, which can be an exhausting task for some horses. He made a three wide bid at the leaders and got close before weakening late, finishing a little less than two lengths behind the winner. While there’s a lot to like there, I am concerned that from a speed figure standpoint, we’ve seen no real growth from his debut. As mentioned earlier, Steve Asmussen is handing the reins over to Luis Saez in order to try to get back in the Winner’s Circle today. The blinkers are coming off today, possibly in hopes that he can throttle some of early aggression and save his energy for a more meaningful run at the leaders. I have mixed feelings here, but I’m leaning against playing him.
6 – Colt Forty Seven (20-1 ML): The longest shot in the field is also the most experienced runner. Keith Desourmeaux has him set for his 9th start, which will also be his first foray into stakes company. I liked his effort to be a distant second in spite of a decent amount of trouble last month. However, his best win came against $50K claimers, and he would really need to improve of that effort in order to consider contending with this group. I’m not a fan of him today.
7 – Courting (6-1 ML, 33-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): In a race where there’s a lot of highly blue-blooded pedigrees, this colt might be the gold standard pairing. His sire is Curlin and his dam is Cavorting, all of which explains the five million dollar price tag. After breaking his maiden in his second career start in New York, he came back to run in the Remsen, where he finished a rather uninspiring 4th. Todd Pletcher has had him working at Palm Meadows since the beginning of the year. John Velazquez is making the trip, so that could also be seen as a positive sign. I’ll be looking for clues in the paddock to see if it feels like this horse has physically matured enough to contend at this level at this point in the season.
8 – Quality Mischief (10-1 ML, 225-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Brad Cox has won this race three times since 2020 and he’s hopeful that this Into Mischief colt can help him get his 4th trophy. I thought he was a sneaky longshot as a horse that could be on the improve in the Gun Runner. He ran a career best effort that day to get him within a length of the winner. He came back in the Lecomte where he was in last place for the first half mile. He did get going at the end of the race, but that was a little bit too little and a little bit too late. He’s come close, but he’s been off the board in softer races, and now he’s facing stiffer competition again. He’s another runner that’s a tough sell for me.
The Verdict: 4-3-2
I think the Sam F. Davis last weekend at Tampa confirmed that Renegade is a pretty nice racehorse that belongs on the Derby Trail. That effort seemed to validate the Remsen as one of the better early season prep races so far. Paladin (#4) was the winner of that race and I think he makes a lot of sense in this race today. He’s following the same path that Sierra Leone took to Louisville two years ago and that regally bred colt was a winner in this race. This colt has more tactical speed than Sierra Leone ever did and that should allow him to sit a very nice trip in this race, since I don’t see a lot of speed signed on.
Carson Street (#3) is a live longshot in this race after a solid third place finish in the Lecomte Stakes last month. He was under pressure for most of the race and he finished better than any other horse that was on or near the lead. He’s gradually improving and he figures to be able to take a step forward today. I think he could secure the early lead and set a sensible tempo here. The added distance is a question mark, but I see him having more upside than any of the other longer priced runners in this race.
Golden Tempo (#2) is also a beautifully bred colt that should have no problem with the nine furlong distance of this race. He’s had to go from last to first to win both of his career races though and I don’t know if that running style is going to bode well for him in terms of winning this race. Paladin has the better figures and his running style fits the pace scenario of this race much better. This colt seems better suited to use underneath and as a deeper saver in case the pace unexpectedly gets hot.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
