Get your week off to a good start with some Presque Isle action this Monday.
While my first week wasn’t perfect, I’m confident these selections will only get better as the meet goes on. It’s always great to get a week of racing started with stakes action, and the feature on this card is the $75,000 Malvern Rose Stakes. Without further ado, let’s jump right in to a tough eight-race card.
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 5 ½ furlongs, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 3:30 p.m
We open the card with a very tight claiming race. Lots of early speed on paper indicates that the break is imperative to competitiveness, but the only horse that stands out in terms of breaking speed is the 10-1 Toomuchaintenough (#3) who comes in after being off since November. I do think he’ll perform well in this race, especially because his last performance can be dismissed due to a sloppy Mountaineer track not suiting him, but could need a start in him before he’s ready to win. My win bet falls then to Turf Cat (#2), who could be getting ready to fire a big race. He consistently has turned a higher Beyer Speed Figure in his second start off layoff compared to his first. I’d slot in the favored This Laughs On You (#4) for second, with a classy loss to Tiz Big Money last out, a horse that won again this past week. The #3 horse would slot in as a good show bet with high odds, but beware of Drunkle (#6), the horse I’ll actually be taking for show. Trainer Brandon Kulp has a great record of turning these claims around, boasting a 38% win rate in their first start with his barn. This horse also worked 58 seconds over 5 furlongs on the 16th, a blistering time on the tapeta. I could make a case for every horse in this field, so if you have a hunch, play it. I’d go wide in any multirace wagers, just so that the bet lives to see the next race.
Race 1 selections: 2-4-6-3
RACE 2 – 6 ½ furlongs, Claiming $8,000 Post Time: 3:57
This race sorts itself out a bit more, with Snowname (#2) standing out as the likeliest winner here. While he caught a heavily biased track in his last start, he defeated two heavy hitters in Danesfield and The Sinner Is You and he’s shown affinity to the all-weather. He should handle this tilt well for trainer/owner Ron Potts. This might be a pipe dream, but I want to see Drunk On Sake (#6) return to form here. A promising 66 Beyer last out and a .47 workout over 4 furlongs has me thinking he could flex some class, though he might want more ground than what’s being offered today. Kotylos (#3) is consistent enough for third. He’s only turned in one Beyer under 63 in a year and a half, and trainer Randal Russel is 30% with horses making their second start off a layoff.
Race 2 selections: 2-6-3
RACE 3 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 4:24
It’s amazing how the mighty can fall so quickly out of favor. Royal Luck (CHI) (#3) was a multiple-graded-stakes and Group 1 winner during his 3-year-old season in his home country five years ago, and now he’s slugging it out in the States with a $5k claiming tag. He’s also clearly the fastest of the bunch, winning his last two starts and turning Beyers that few in this class can compare to in recent form. The only threat to his dominance is Chill Boss (#4), a winner by 5 lengths over a mile last time out. He set his fastest career speed figure of 72 last out, matching #3’s last Beyer. Secretary Of War (#2) should be ready to fire in his second start back, presenting a clear third choice to the two front-end horses.
Race 3 selections:3-4-2
RACE 4 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 4:51
A tough 8-horse field to mark the midway point of the card. There isn’t any one thing pulling me towards a certain horse’s recent race form, so a gander at the workout times shows Cherokee Chatter (#5) turned in two bullet works before her first start off the layoff, both bullets clocking in at 47 seconds over 4 furlongs. Gaddiel Martinez is only three wins back of leading jockey Antonio Gallardo and only one win ahead of third place Israel Rodriguez, so he’ll need some wins to keep pace with the leaderboard. Speaking of, the other two horses I’m interested in for this race are Old Fashioned Girl (#8) and Urban Cowgirl (#2), jockeyed by Rodriguez and Gallardo, respectively. Old Fashioned Girl drops into this race from a $6,250 tag, and is yet again another horse who should be ready off the layoff. Urban Cowgirl’s trainer Robert Cline has a decent record of turning horses who were on dirt around to the tapeta, so we’ll see if that rings true for this runner.
Race 4 selections: 5-8-2
RACE 5 – 1 mile 70 yards, Allowance Optional Claiming $40,000 Post Time: 5:18
Britian’s Kitten (#1) comes from Tampa Bay Downs out of a Grade 3 race, finishing 4th in the Tampa Bay stakes on the grass. Multiple horses came from off the pace last week in the routes, and #1 has the right style and enough class to hustle this field. An early speed horse I’m interested in is Adios Buccaneer (#6), who could have something left towards the end. He’s hit the board in 5 of 7 starts at this distance. Twilight Dancer (#2) has the class to hit the board, and should the favorite stumble, will have a shot to cross the wire first.
Race 5 selections: 1-6-2
RACE 6 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $25,000 Post Time: 5:45
Another tough race to break down, with little to show in terms of tapeta form for the bulk of the runners. I’ll hedge my bet with proven commodity Boogie Woogie (#1) to get an early jump on the rail and take the field the whole way to the wire. Randall Russel only has a 16% strike rate with horses coming off layoffs longer than 180 days, but 16% is higher than a lot of other angles I could be playing and there could be some development from 4 to 5 years old. With all the other early speed, the shortest way around should be the quickest for her. I look for Tiger Eye Pearl (#8) to find her way forward with Gallardo aboard. She has the potential for the most tactical speed in this race, and that could mean something with the front end pace looking to collapse early. The only other horse that would interest me in this spot is Belloro (#7) who could flex some class after dropping in from a Finger Lakes allowance, though she’s never run on the tapeta before.
Race 6 selections: 1-8-7
RACE 7 – 6 ½ furlongs, $75,000 Malvern Rose Stakes Post Time: 6:12
Six three-year-old fillies make up the gate for the Malvern Rose. I really like the wide drawn Thank You Amy (#6) in this spot. She breaks with ultra-consistency, something that could mitigate the wide draw. The only concern is getting the 6 ½ furlong distance, something she’s struggled to do. Divine Intentions (#1) is a classy horse, but with no synth form, playing her at 3-1 doesn’t excite me, so I’d rather use this entry in the exotic pools. I suspect her strength will show on tapeta but to what extent remains a mystery. Smooch Up (#2), winner of the Debutante on Masters day, is a deserving favorite with leading rider Gallardo up in the saddle, but coming off the layoff and at that short a price, I’d hedge my bets elsewhere for this one. I wouldn’t be so brave to leave her out of any pick-3 or pick-4 sequences though.
Race 7 selections: 6-1-2
RACE 8 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 6:39
Triple Start (#6) emerges as the horse with the right kind of style for these route races and should remain competitive in this class. If King Miano (#7) comes off the layoff looking fresh, he’ll have a say in this race before it’s all said and done as the early pacesetter. I anticipate several scratches as many horses in this field have run in the last two weeks so Midnight Ambition (#4) falls to my third choice almost by default, with improvement hoped for after the layoff.
Race 8 selections: 6-7-4
I know I probably keep saying it over and over, but this race card is full of thrilling opportunities. The stakes race, while light on entries, consists of a deep field and could be the moneymaking opportunity of the day. Hope to see you back here tomorrow for more Presque Isle handicapping!
