Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Friday, 8/28/26 – By Eric Solomon

The final Friday card for the 2026 Monmouth Park meeting is a six race program that starts at 2:00 PM (EDT). Mother Nature played some tricks in the area last weekend, limiting the number of turf races that were offered. The early forecast is calling for sunny and pleasant weather over the next few days. 

Tomorrow is the $800 Travers Day Monmouth Park/Saratoga Contest, which will be the last handicapping contest at Monmouth during the live thoroughbred meet this year. Click the link below for registration and contest information. 

https://www.monmouthpark.com/event/800-travers-day-monmouth-saratoga-contest-4/

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start off the day with a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going one mile over the turf course. The rails for the three aces carded for the turf this afternoon will be set all the way out at 36 feet. This feels like the time and place for Too Many Mikes (#7) to graduate from the maiden ranks. She’s  a horse that hasn’t shown a ton of early foot in her first few races, but she was able to display some more tactical speed when finishing second at this level in her last start. I think the addition of blinkers will prove to be helpful for her while competing in a race where there are some definite question marks about some of her rivals. I wouldn’t be surprised if Francisco Martinez is asked to try to have Lady of Troy (#8) on the front end in this spot. She’s making her second start off a brief layoff and stretching back out to two turns for the first time since her second career start in the spring. She finished 5th in a maiden special weight race contest here two weeks ago when sprinting. She’ll drop in for the lower tag that she’s run for. If she can make the front, I wouldn’t be shocked if she started feeling brave. Get the Bag (#1) is a second time starter who was beaten over 18 lengths in her debut in maiden special weight company. The speed figure stacks up, but it’s concerning to see this filly who cost her connections $150K, racing for a small fraction of the initial outlay. If her number floats up, I’d maybe consider her more, but if she’s a short price, close to that of Too Many Mikes, I’d much rather have her rival.

Race 2:

The first dirt race of the day starts the Pick-5 wager. Three year olds and up will go a mile and 70 yards in this  $7,500-$6,500 N2L claiming race. Consistent efforts are a struggle in this field, but there’s one horse who has beaten four of his five opponents. Captain Oats (#2) makes his 5th career start today. He finished ahead of Final Joke (#4) and Lumber Legacy (#1) when he broke his maiden at the beginning of the meet. He finished in front of Bliss Street (#6) two back and he was about four lengths better than Fratellone (#5) in his latest start when facing a better group. All the Luck (#3) is the one face he hasn’t seen on the track ,but that one finished 3 ½ lengths behind Fratellone when they last met. While I think Fratellone is one to respect, I also think he’s going to take more money at the windows. I think Captain Oats is going to go to the front and he’s going to prove to be too tough to get by. Most of my money will go through him in this spot. 

Race 3:

A field of eight has been assembled for this $5K starter allowance sprint, going six furlongs on the dirt. Both Pogi (#3) and Bean Machine (#5) are cross-entered in races tomorrow, and I think both of them are more likely to be in those respective races as opposed to this one. Amazing Woo (#2) was immediately re-claimed by Pewter Stable and Kathleen DeMasi after losing him in a claim at the beginning of May. He came back and ran a strong third in an open $10K claiming race at Parx in his last start. He’s never ventured across state lines to Monmouth, but the fact that they’ve moved him to a protected spot tells me that they think highly of this gelding. Glint (#4) was a winner at this level in his last start and now he’ll try to go back to back  in his second start for Panagiotis Synnefias. He likes to come running late, so the more speed that stars in the race is better off for him. Guapo Again (#8) hasn’t been a s sharp in his last few starts, but he was lights out at this level back in May. He’s coming off a third place effort in open allowance company in his last start. I do think the class relief will feel welcome, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him back in the Winner’s Circle while dropping back in class to this protected starter allowance. 

Race 4:

We’ll start off the Late $3 Pick-3 with an optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race for New Jersey bred fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. I think Starview Twinkle (#1) has a good chance to upset the apple cart in this race. She was a winner at this condition last summer, so he’s racing with the $15K claiming tag today. None of her four races this year were particularly memorable, however, all four of them were sprint races. She’s a horse that seems to do her best work at two turns. She likes to be on the front end and she’s drawn the rail in a race which doesn’t have much early speed signed on. There’s a chance that Eliseo Ruiz could try to fire out of the gate with Creative Stuff (#8), but that really hasn’t been her M.O. Don’t be surprised if this mare starts getting grave on the front end. Point to That Star (#7) is a face that could be rolling late if the pace does heat up. This is another runner that is probably at her best when she’s going two turns. She ran a credible third at this level two starts back and her local turf routes are solid. Creative Stuff has been racing above her head in many starts this year. She ran in the Eatontown and the Matchmaker while going off a huge number against much better competition. Her one start at this level was strong though, which makes me think that she’ll be a good fit here.  She’s starting off at 3-1, which is a low number for a horse whose trainer has only four wins with 130 starters in 2026. 

Race 5:

The Friday feature is an optional $20K claiming/N1X allowance race for fillies and mares who will sprint six furlongs. If she’s right, Paula’s a Star (#3) should win this race rather easily. She’s coming off a trio of off the board finishes in turf sprints at Saratoga. She has dirt sprint races at this distance that are simply faster than what her competition has been able to put together. Rely Gutierrez is named to ride this filly for Tom Morley, who has yet to have a starter at this current meet. She is protected in this race and the idea of running here might be for some needed class relief in order to boost her confidence before potentially returning to Belmont in the fall. Dee’s on Dow (#5) is the alternative for me. Early speed is the name of her game and I think the plan would be to take it to this field from the jump. She was a winner here in the spring when facing straight three year olds. She tired late to be third at this distance and condition in her latest try. 

Race 6:

We’ll close out the card with a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. There are plenty of ways to go in this race, but I’ll try Trapping Hands (#2) as the top pick. He ran into a runaway winner after a disastrous break in his turn debut when going 5 ½ furlongs in his last start. The dam was sired by Summer Front, so there’s reason to believe that this gelding could have a future in lower level turf route races. His trainer, Roshan Samsundar has five wins from 20 starters this year, and while all of those winners came on the main track, I think there are things to like about him in this race. Battle Lou (#7) was stuck on the AE list at Penn National yesterday, so this feels like the spot where he’ll land for his next start. He was sharp when facing better at this distance three back./ he struggled against open maiden allowance types two back and he was beaten by a runaway winner in his latest effort. The Magic Speed (#5) is also worthy of A line consideration in this race. He was sharper at Tampa in the spring. He was well beaten against maiden special weight runners on the grass in his first two starts of the meet. He drops in class for his third start off the layoff and he’s going from a barn that is 0-22 at this meet to a barn that has won 16% of their races here this year. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 80/300 (26.7%), $469.70 ($1.57 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet