This is an excellent Saturday afternoon card at Keeneland, highlighted by a pair of graded stakes dirt sprint races for three year olds and three year old fillies. The Grade 3 Perryville Stakes and the Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run Stakes both drew highly competitive 12 horse fields. In addition, there are some excellent turf races supporting this stellar program. First post this afternoon is set for 1:00 (ET).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 7 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 6 | 6,12 | 4 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 8 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1,5 | 13 | DBL, PK3,
$3 All-Turf PK3 (R4, R8, R10) |
|
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 6 | 11 | 11 | 12,4 | DBL, PK3, PK5, | |
| 7 | 12 | 12 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 8 | 5 | 5,3 | 2 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 9 | 8 | 8 | 10,6 | DBL | |
| 10 | 5 | 5 | 6,4 |
Race 1:
The day starts with a $20K N2L claiming race for three year olds and up going six furlongs on the dirt. I think this contest is going to come down to either L Rankin (#7) or Trouble Time (#8). Trouble Time was a debut winner last September at Churchill at this distance on the dirt. He’s had five starts since then with a seven month break in between his third and fourth start. His efforts since the break have not been as sharp as his first two dirt races in his career, hence the drop in class today. Tyler Gaffalione rides this course very well and he’ll get the return call for Nicholas Vaccarezza. This will be the first time they’ve offered him up for a tag and I think he has a decent edge. L Rankin is a bit of a wildcard in this race. With the exception of the race last year where he faced Brant, he was fairly consistent as a two year old. He came back after nine months on the sidelines in an open $50K-$40K claiming race Del Mar, he ran okay, but he met a beast who scored by 12 lengths. He ships, changes barns, and drops in class for his second start off the bench. If the odds disparity between these two runners widens, I’d likely take a bigger shot with him. If the post time odds lie closer to the morning line odds, I’ll be more focused on Trouble Time.
Race 2:
Two year old fillies sprint six furlongs in this $30K maiden claiming race. I landed on the first time starter, Bellacielo (#6), for Lauren Robson. She was based here over the summer but left Keeneland for Highpoint Farm and Training Center where there were some gaps in her training. She’s been working more consistently and she came back here and fired a 47:4 work here last week. Robson is 1-7 with debuting two year olds over the last five years. Her sire, Thousand Words gets 10% winners from his debuting first timers in dirt sprint races. Sailor’s Dream (#12) debuted for Wesley Ward on the turf at Kentucky Downs. She showed some speed before backing out of the picture. The drop in class doesn’t give a ringing vote of confidence, however, that effort on the grass was good enough to compete with this group. Ward’s numbers with second time starters and horses from maiden special to maiden claiming are too good to be ignored. Ardennes (#4) is a live longshot that I’ll throw in on some deeper tickets. She runs for low profile connections, so the price should be reasonable. She was competitive until a runaway winner put distance between her and the rest of the field. The Beyer Figure was competitive and if she does move forward, she’ll be in the mix.
Race 3:
Nine runners will go 6 ½ furlongs on the dirt in this $12,500 starter allowance race. I’m not going to try to beat Dancin for Gold (#7) in this race. He’s won half of his 10 career starts. He was a resounding winner in his only try in starter allowance company. He cleared the first level allowance condition in a fast six furlong race at Oaklawn and he just cleared the second level allowance condition at Remington when making his first start off a three month break. He should be sharper in this race and while the 6 ½ furlong trip here might be a touch long for him, I think his class will prevail. I’ve always been a fan of Swirvin (#8), and he’s making his second start off the layoff and his second start off the Saffie Joseph claim. Irad Ortiz riding will help his cause and I think he’ll be better than his last. I do think he’s running into a good one though.
Race 4:
The All-Turf Pick-3 will start in this race and end with the nightcap. This first leg is a maiden special weight contest for two year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the lawn. Toco Dancer (#1) feels like a horse that should be on tickets in this race. The dam Tiz Ro has produced several quality horses that like to run in turf routes. The sire Jack Christopher is producing horses that have done well on the turf. His runners are 2-13 in turf routes and 3-8 in turf sprints thus far. 8 of those 13 routers have finished in the money. This filly came with a wide bid to get into 4th in her debut in a sprint at Kentucky Downs. Brian Lynch is exceptional with second time starters. I thought the race from Delightful Diva (#5) at Kentucky Downs was better than it looks on paper. She broke well from the rail in that spot and settled just off the pace. She rode the rail and tried to find a seam for clear running at a few points. She was denied, which certainly can be frustrating for a young horse. She finally was able to tip out but the winner had all of the momentum at that point. The dam was a stakes winner on the Tapeta and she broke her maiden going two turns on the turf at Churchill. Look for a better effort here. She’ll need help to get in, but Emma’s Justice (#13) is the first timer that probably has the best shot to score in this race. Brendan Walsh continues to be on a roll at this meet and he’s already had two, two year old debut winners at this meet, including one in a two turn turf race last week. This filly is a half to Nagirroc, who was a graded stakes winning sprinter on the turf and a stakes winner in a turf route.
Race 5:
There are some familiar names in this optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance race for three year olds and up going six furlongs on the dirt. While there are horses that can step up and run big races, I think this is a great spot for Jefferson Street (#2), who is making his third start off a lengthy layoff for Bill Mott. He showed a ton of promise as a three year old in 2024. He was a smashing maiden winner in the slop here that April and his allowance win on the 2024 Belmont undercard was tremendous. He would finish second in the Amsterdam and second on the Harrods Creek that year, but he went to sidelines for close to two years after his off the board finish in the Forty Niner Stakes. He came back in August, 22 months after his last race and he was definitely rusty. However, he was much sharper when finishing 3rd at this level last month at Churchill. I think this is the spot where he shows that he’s all the way back. Creole Chrome (#3) is the backup for me in this race. He’s the morning line favorite in this race and his efforts in Louisiana bred company are definitely noteworthy. His four starts in open company have all been in stakes company, so he is getting class relief why trying to score in an open race for the first time in his career.
Race 6:
16 two year olds are entered in this maiden special weight sprint, but there will be a maximum of 12 starters. This race feels like it runs through the Vekoma firster for Brad Cox, Capitola (#11). Two of the dam’s six runners that have been foaled by Carried Away, were debut winners as two year olds. Vekoma is a top tier sire for debuting runners, as horses that he;s sired have won 23% of the time in dirt sprints (51-221). The human connections are elite and there’s no one else that really stands out in this race. Fair Chase (#12) and Goshawk (#4) are both live longshots in this race. Both runners are also making their respective debuts today. Brendan Walsh has had a strong meet and he’ll send out Fair Chase, who was sired by Twirling Candy. He gets 14% winners from his debuting runners in dirt sprints. The dam’s other foal to race has two wins in four career starts against softer competition. Goshawk is a Mandaloun first timer for Kelsey Danner. He drilled a 46:4 bullet work at Turfway last week. There’s not many clues about the dam, who was well bred, but unraced. Danner is an underrated trainer and this could be a horse that is flying under the radar.
Race 7, The Grade 3 Perryville Stakes:
There are a dozen three year olds set to go seven furlongs in this Grade 3 contest. The one with the target on his back will Juddmonte’s Deep Flame (#12). It somehow took this talented colt three starts to break his maiden. Trouble Calling (#2) had his number on debut and he just missed in his second start on this course in April. He was a no doubt about it winner in his third start over at Churchill. He ran twice after that at this distance in graded stakes company. He was a dominating winner in the Grade 3 Maxfield Stakes at Churchill in June. He came back in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens Stakes where he tried his heart out, but wasn’t good enough to beat Englishman, who ran another huge race that day. He’s going to be a short price in this race and he’s clearly the most likely winner with this group. I think the horse that has the best shot at beating him will be Solitude Dude (#1), who moves to Joe Sharp’s barn after running for Saffie Joseph. He has four wins in eight career starts and six of those races were sharp. He ran two clunkers, one against Englishman in the Woody Stephens and the other in a two-turn seven furlong stakes race at Charles Town. While I would have liked to see him be more competitive against Englishman, he threw down the gauntlet early and it caught up with him that day. A bad race for a nice horse at Charles Town is also a free pass for me. His effort in the Grade 2 Amsterdam two starts ago was very good. That kind of effort would typically be good enough to win this race in most years, but the top pick is a very good race horse.
Race 8:
The race sandwiched between these two graded stakes sprint contests is a very nice N3X allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. This feels like a spot to take a stand against the morning line favorite, She’s Lookin Lucky (#8). You have to go back to 2024 to find her last win and while she’s had several close calls at this level, there’s typically at least one horse in these races that is better. I’m thinking that will be the case again today. Mike Maker sends out Amber Cascade (#5) for her third start off the layoff. While it’s been a little bit of time since she’s won a race herself, she was really good in tough spots last year. She was second at Ellis Park when making her turf debut in the Kentucky Downs Prevue Stakes and she followed that effort up with a second place finish in the Grade 2 Flower Bowl. She struggled at longer distances in the Rodeo Drive and the Long Island before going to the sidelines. She missed time from November 2025 to this past July. She was clearly rusty when she came back on the dirt and she was flat in her last start when she tried a tough allowance race at Kentucky Downs. We’ve seen several horses at this meet rebound from a subpar effort at Kentucky Downs, and this feels like a good spot for her to do so. While it’s been a down meet for Brad Cox, it feels like he is absolutely loaded on this card. I’ve got his runners on top in three of the five races that he’s sending horses out, and while I’m not using Hear the Queen (#3) as the top pick in this race, I do have her on the A line because I think she’s quite dangerous. She won the Pago Hop Stakes at the end of her three year old campaign last year at the Fair Grounds capping off a nice late season run. She went to the sidelines after that late December contest and returned last month at Kentucky Downs where she ran a credible third in a similar spot. Shes Lookin Lucky was about a half length better than her in that spot, but I feel she can turn the tables on her rival in this race after getting that first start of the year under her belt. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Ontario (#2), who is an aptly named Ontario bred horse returning from a 4th place finish in a restricted stakes race at Woodbine. She ran into Elysian Fields, who is a very talented Ontario bred mare that day. She was also making her first start on the recently renovated E.P. Taylor turf course. The nine furlong distance of that race on that course can be tricky, so I could envision her turning things around while returning to a more traditional oval.
Race 9, The Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run Stakes:
Three year old fillies will get their turn to go seven furlongs in graded stakes company. Mashallah (#9) is the heavy favorite in this race. She caught everyone’s attention with a monstrous race here going six furlongs toward the end of the spring meet here. I wasn’t sure that she was going to thrive in a race that short, and maybe the irony for me is that I don’t think she’s going to be as effective going this long. With this size field, she’s going to have to work to get the lead. Movie Night (#11) to her outside is a nice horse that should be hounding her every step of the way. I like Conceit (#8) a lot in this race today. She has figured some things out lately, winning her last three races in Kentucky, including a score in the Grade 3 Dogwood. I think thie distance is right in her wheelhouse and I suspect that she’s going to get the run of the race here. She has tactical speed, but she’s going to let Mashallah and Movie Night duke it out. She got up just in time in the Dogwood and she’s getting a rider upgrade here. She has three straight 94 Beyer Figures in her last three dirt races. One of those came in the slop when going a mile and her last two have come in seven furlong stakes races. I think the pace scenario favors her and I see this as a race for her to move forward. Don’t discount With a Kiss (#10) making her first stakes start in this race. She’s by Gun Runner out of the Kentucky Oaks winner, Cathryn Sophia. She was a winner on debut last fall at the Big A, but she was sidelined for over 10 months. She came back at the end of the Saratoga meet where she ran a big race off the layoff. Todd Pletcher turns to Johnny V. to ride this live longshot. Percy’s Bar (#6) loves racing at Keeneland, winning her debut here, along with the Grade 1 Ashland. She also crossed the line first in the Alcibiades last year, but her number was taken down. She misfired in the Music City Stakes on the turf in her last start. She’s back on the dirt and while I don’t know if this is her best distance, she always seems to overperform on this course.
Race 10:
Fillies and mares sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf in a N1X allowance race will close out the afternoon. Epic Lady Luck (#5) is going to be tough to beat in this race. She ran some nice races last year at the end of her two year old season and at the beginning of her three year old campaign. After a big effort in January at Gulfstream, she was sidelined until coming back in the Galway Stakes off the layoff at Saratoga. She caught a yielding course that day and ran very well to be third. She wasn’t as sharp in the Lucky Lantern Stakes at Kentucky Downs in her last start, but there were several factors that could have contributed to that dull effort. I’m expecting her to be much sharper on this course today. Ms Jay Dee Em (#6) put forth a strong effort to win in her second career start at Kentucky Downs last month. She went off at 38-1 that day and came up with a big time effort. She cuts back to 5 ½ furlongs, which is a bit of a question mark for her as this is something that she’s never done. I do think the shorter distances will be okay for her though. Petronella (#4) is another runner that is cutting back in distance. She has had some trouble staying sound and she’s had some trouble finishing strongly in her last few starts. She was flat when trying to climb the hill late at Kentucky Downs when making her first start in five months. I like the cutback in distance and Flavien Prat is doing great work with a limited number of mounts at this meet. He’ll get the call from Brendan Walsh this afternoon.
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
