We’ll end the week with a nine race card at Keeneland, headlined by the Rood and Riddle Dowager Stakes for fillies and mares going 12 furlongs on the turf. There’s a full field of 12 entered for that Grade 3 contest. First post this afternoon will be the usual 1:00 PM (ET).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 3 | 3,9 | 8 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2,9,8 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 7,1,4 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | ||
| 5 | 9 | 9 | 10,6 | DBL, PK3, PK5,
All-Turf Pick 3 (R5, R7, R9) |
|
| 6 | 7 | 7,6,10 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | DBL, $3 Late PK3 | |
| 8 | 3 | 3 | 1,2 | DBL | |
| 9 | 11 | 11,9 | 13 |
Race 1:
The Sunday program at Keeneland will begin with a beaten $62,500 claiming race for fillies and mares going seven furlongs on the main track. Four of the seven runners qualified under the N3L condition. Meanwhile, Turkish Pistachio (#1) and Alta Avenue (#3) are both three time winners and the morning line favorite, Carol’s Melody (#7) is a four time winner. However, Miss Enchanted (#2) is the top pick for me. She’s faced some talented fillies and mares in allowance company as she’s been trying for a while to clear the N2X condition. She was very flat in her last start at Churchill, which was her first try in three months. Dale Romans drops her in for a tag for the first time in her career. Other horses have been struggling to break through against lesser competition, so this class relief may work best for her. Turkish Pistachio (#1) is a three time winner that is coming off a first level allowance win at Horseshoe Indianapolis. She was not very consistent earlier in her career, but she’s put together a nice string of races since Genaro Garcia claimed her at Churchill in May. She’s been gradually improving with each start since the claim and she has a few decent efforts at this distance. There are things to like about her in this race today. I’ll primarily be with these two ladies here, while taking a stand against Carol’s Melody. While she’s put together a few nice races, I haven’t seen the consistency yet. She’s facing tougher foes today so I’m going to need her to prove to me that she can contend at this level before I’m willing to take 6-5 on her.
Race 2:
The Early Pick-4 begins with another beaten claiming race for fillies and mares. 10 runners will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this $20K race where 9 of them qualified under the N3L condition. Song of Songs (#8) is a four time winner making her first start since a third place finish in starter allowance company at Canterbury in July. Tia Lupe (#3) had a productive spring and summer at Thistledown where she won twice and finished in the money in other three tries there. She won a N2L allowance race there last out when going 5 ½ furlongs, but I think she’s better at two turns. There are others here that might be better at one turn, so when they bend for home, this is one that could be gaining in the final furlong. Cipriano Contreras hasn’t had a starter here this meet, but I do think he has Spun Up (#9) in good form for this race. She was claimed by him last summer and he’s been able to develop her somewhat. She was a dominating winner in an off the turf race in Indianapolis three back. She’s held her form when facing first level allowance types on the grass in her last two. I do think getting back on the dirt should be okay for her. Song of Songs may be worth a look. She won her first four career starts at Turf Paradise over the winter. She came to Prairie Meadows where she was no match for Grace is Good in two stakes races there this spring. She dropped in class to starter allowance company at Canterbury in her last where she finished 3rd. She was given a little extra time before coming here to face a field where there are many stagnant types. She’ll need to step up a bit to score with this group, but she’s been working well for Chris Block, who has taken over as her trainer. Luis Saez taking the mount is a positive sign.
Race 3:
Three year olds and up will go 1 ⅛ miles on the dirt in this $16K claiming race. I’ll try Brigadier General (#2) on top in this race. He was used hard when breaking from the nine hole in a one mile race at Saratoga last time out. That kind of post coming out of the Wilson Chute is a recipe for disaster, so I’d be willing to toss that race. He was four wide all the way around the bend in a race that starts on the first turn. He was dueling with the 4-5 favorite who also had the fortune of breaking from the rail. He also had blinkers on for that race, which has led to disastrous results the two times that he did wear them on raceday. Blinkers come back off for his third start off the layoff for him and he’s changing barns for return to Keeneland, where he’s earned half of his career victories. Sugoi (#9) has been mostly a turf horse in his career, but he’s capable on the dirt. His last race on the main track came here in April of 2024, and it was a win. He’s dropping in class after struggling with higher priced claimers on the turf lately. Company You Keep (#8) had a spot of trouble early on in a claiming race at Churchill in his last start. However, he couldn’t keep pace with the winner in the late stages of that one. I do think he’ll benefit from a more patient ride and he should get that with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. He’s in better form than most in this race.
Race 4:
The Pick-6 begins with a $30K maiden claiming race for two year olds going 6 ½ furlongs on the dirt. This is a tricky race because the form from the experienced runners is not great, but the first time starters aren’t very intriguing either. I landed on one of the debuting runners, making Croatoan (#7) the top pick for Anna Meah. This Country House gelding cost $1,000 as a weanling back in 2024, but he’s been working out consistently for his debut. After missing three weeks of training in August, he’s had six drills in six weeks at the Thoroughbred Training Center, and he appears to be formidable. The dam’s other runners have not done much on the track as only two of the six were winners. Country does get 14% winners from his debuting runners in dirt sprints, and his runners are 3-7 when debuting in a maiden claiming race. Lindenborg (#1) debuting in a maiden auction race in September at Churchill where he finished midpack, but posted a figure that would be competitive with this group. He went to Indiana where he ran in a two turn maiden special weight race on the turf, which was clearly not his thing. He ships back to Kentucky two weeks later and finds a field where he should be competitive. I’ll also toss in Smart N Centisible (#4) while trying for some prices in this race. He debuted in a maiden optional claiming race at Ellis in August. He drew in off the AE list and broke from post 12. He showed a bit of speed to stalk the leader while four wide. It’s fair to point out that his race was over as he was dropping back before the moment of trouble where he was forced to steady that day. The race winner dominated that field going from gate to wire. Since then, this Goldencents colt has five solid works on the dirt at Churchill. The dam has produced a runner that was graded stakes placed on synthetic, so there could be some quality here.
Race 5:
The first turf race of the day is a N3X allowance contest for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles. I’ve been a fan of Mesero (#9) for a while and I think he’s well spotted in this stakes quality allowance race. He ran credible races in both the Texas Turf Classic and the Grade 3 Singspiel Stakes at Woodbine in his last two starts. He cleared the second level allowance condition on this course in this spring, earning his second local win that day. Covert Law (#10) might be the horse that he’s going to have to catch. He;s been sharp this season when he’s been setting the pace, however, he didn’t make the lead last out and still ran a strong race to be a close third at this level at Churchill. Carlos David takes over the training as John Ortiz retired at the end of last month and he has a strong recent track record with his new acquisitions. If he does go hard early, Green Light (#6) could win up being the runner that runs them all down in the late stages of this race. He was second in the same race that Covert Law is coming out of. He has a deep closing victory on this course in the past. John Ellis had him fit to fire off the bench last out, but we’ll see if that type of form can be sustained.
Race 6:
The Late Pick-4 begins with a maiden special weight contest for two year old fillies sprinting six furlongs. Three of the eleven runners entered in this spot have a race under their belts whereas the other eight are set to debut. First Look (#7) is the pick for Rodolphe Brisset and WinStar Farm. Life Is Good is off to a strong start as a sire and his debut runners in dirt sprints have won 25% of the time (10-40). She’s the first foal to run from the mare, Jemison, who was a dominating winner in her only career start. The works are sharp for her first career start. Ms Candice (#6) is a half to Percy’s Bar, who loves racing on this oval. She was a debut winner here in the spring of 2024. She came to cross the wire first in the Alcibiades that year, only to have her number taken down. When she returned to Keeneland in the spring, she upset the heavily favored Zany with a bold move on the turn. Percy’s Bar is also trained by Ben Colebrook, who always seems to have an upset winner at Keeneland. Cairo Prince gets 10% winners from his debuting runners in dirt sprint races. Appeals to Me (#10) is the morning line favorite making her second career start for Brad Cox. She just missed on debut last month at Churchill where he hit the front, but was nailed on the line late. Cox’s runners typically get better in their second starts. She’s hard to leave off tickets in this one.
Race 7, The Grade 3 Rood and Riddle Dowager Stakes:
This is a large field for this 1 ½ marathon for fillies and mares on the turf. I like Golden Sunshine (#8) quite a bit in this race. She ran a strong race at long odds in the Bewitch Stakes here in the spring. She caught a good course at Churchill in the Keertana in her next start and she was closer to the front end that day. She didn’t run nearly as well, but she also wasn’t terrible when finishing 4th. Since then she has a decent 4th place effort in the Grade Trillium Stakes on the Tapeta at Woodbine and a respectable second place finish when going 1 5/16 miles in the Grade 3 Ladies Marathon at Kentucky Downs. She’s back in a graded stakes at 12 furlongs on grass and I think the pace scenario is going to be favorable for her to come with her late closing kick. Modarosa (#12) is likely going to have to send, and I think Jose Ortiz is going to be aggressive with Pretty Tapit (#4), since that was the winning strategy for her when clearing the first level allowance condition at Kentucky Downs last month. She’s an improving four year old for Godolphin and I think she’s sitting on a career top effort today. Super Shopper (#9) is the logical backup for me in this spot. I don’t trust Fionn (#5) at this distance and I’m not convinced that Pretty Tapit can run back to her last race. She was the winner of the Bewitch in the spring but she was a little flat after that. She tried the dirt in the Personal Ensign Stakes against Fully Subscribed last out, which didn’t go well. That one came back to win the Spinster here two weeks ago. She goes back to the turf and she is the one that they’re going to have to beat in this race.
Race 8:
The Late Double starts with a $40K N2L claiming race going six furlongs on the dirt. Grande Sopresso (#3) is the play here, getting back to a proper level of competition. He just missed when dropping into $100K maiden claiming company from maiden allowance races. He was okay in his turf debut at Ellis, but he broke through when getting class relief in maiden allowance company at Horseshoe Indianapolis. He faced winners for the first time in open allowance company at Churchill. He doesn’t really stack up with horses like Lincoln’s Law or Circle Tap though. He drops in class here and I’m expecting him to fire when racing at the right level. Love in Lights (#1) is a live longshot at this level, while getting back to a dirt sprint. After finishing a distant third in an off the turf allowance race in the slop at Horseshoe Indy, he went to the sidelines for three months and returned in a new, high percentage barn. His first two starts weren’t great, but his best work has come in one turn races. He;s making his third start off the layoff and facing a more reasonable class of rivals. Ring Curl (#2) is also worth including here. He was a maiden special weight winner on this course in April. After three rough races against better, he dropped to $50K N2L claiming company at Churchill. He didn’t have the best trip that day in the mud where he was 5th best. He drops a bit and gets a rider upgrade here. I don’t love him as the favorite, but I do think he’ll be in the mix.
Race 9:
Two year olds will go 1 1/16 miles on the turf in this maiden special weight race that will close out the week. Godolphin could be sitting on a big weekend and they could close it out with Bold Speaker (#11) here. He ran a solid race at first asking at Ellis in a more traditional , two turn, one mile race. He struggled at Kentucky Downs when going the one turn mile over their unconventional course. He was beaten by Showa, who was a winner in an allowance race here this week. Tyler Gaffalione rode him for the first time at Kentucky Downs and he’ll get the return call today. Time in Motion (#9) makes sense in this race as the morning line favorite. He paired his first two Beyer Figures in maiden races at Saratoga and Churchill. Axel Concepcion gave him an aggressive ride and he just missed last time out. Arrival Time (#13) is another Kentucky Downs invader., He makes his second career start this afternoon for Steve Asmussen, assuming he’s able to draw in off the AE list. Asmussen has struggled at Keeneland in the past, but he’s having a sharp meet=, winning with 6 of 33 starters going into the weekend.
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
