Fair Grounds Racing Preview – 3/14/21 – By Eric Solomon

The late pick-5 has gone two days without being hit, so there’s a double carryover of over $47,000 to end the racing week in New Orleans. This week continues to offer challenging cards with some tough to find horses getting the job done. I think the favorites are going to be tough in the first and last legs, with chances for prices sandwiched in between. It’s definitely worth playing into this pool today!

Race 1:

$5K N3X claimers kick off the Sunday afternoon card. I’m not really finding anything creative here as Twilight Fantasy (6) looks pretty tough today after dismantling a $5K N2X claiming field last out. He went off form for his previous two races, but Margolis looks like he might have figured him out. I don’t love that he’s still in for a $5K tag, especially after being claimed for $30K three starts back, but he just seems better than these. The only other horse I can make a solid case for is Maintainance Matt (4) who just missed last out at this level in the slop. He, too had a big win in $5K N2X claiming company three starts ago. If Twilight Fantasy is off his game, he’ll be the one most likely to pick up the pieces.

Race 2:

The first turf race of the day is for $30,000-$25,000 claimers going 5 and ½ Furlongs for three year olds and up. Older horses are only eligible if they have never won twice. We have seen some three year olds be very competitive in this early part of the year against their older counterparts, most recently, with Hotmolly beating older foes on yesterday’s card. There’s one three year old, Thirtyminutemass (3) tackling older foes today, and I think he has a live shot. He caught a good course two back in his only turf start, leading early before fading on the turn. He dropped and returned to a dirt sprint where he was a much the best winner. He looked like he could handle the turf, and should be better sprinting. I was a little puzzled with the tactics last time with Biarritz (6) who I liked last out at 28-1. He showed he was effective rolling on the front end, breaking his maiden in a turf sprint at Arlington. He finally got back to sprinting on the grass last out after failed route attempts and races getting washed off the turf. He broke ok, but got shuffled back to 11^th before fanning out wide and coming with a late bid to get within three lengths of the winner. Jose Lopez, who rode him for his only win, reunites with him this afternoon, hopefully to give him a more forwardly placed trip while he drops in class. Spycraft (1) is the likely favorite after being claimed at this level last out by Chris Hartman. Perhaps he didn’t like the good footing last out because his effort two back on firm going was strong. He cuts back to a sprint for the first time on the grass though, so there’s needs to be some value for me to play him.

Race 3:

We have another $5K N3X claiming race, but this one is at 1 Mile and 70 yards. I’m going to try to beat the morning line favorite, Hero of the Hour (4) who seems like more of an underneath horse who has run better races on turf. He improved a bit for Faucheux off the claim, but it feels like his ceiling isn’t that high and others certainly have as good of a shot as he does at better odds. Bucky (7) drops in class and returns to a two turn race on the main track. He won his only career race at two turns on dirt on this oval on New Year’s Day. Mitchell Murrill has been riding extremely well, and is coming off a four win afternoon yesterday. Ekaterinoslav (2) faltered at this level last out, but was claimed by Broberg, who is a significantly higher percentage trainer than anyone who has trained him before. He has shown ability, but he hasn’t been able to run well consistently. He has a couple of decent two turn efforts on this track, so I think he can rebound. Muscadine (5) ships in from Delta while dropping out of allowance company, where he was overmatched in his last two. He is a previous winner on this course, so you don’t have to wonder if he can handle the transition from a six furlong oval at Delta to the larger oval here.

Race 4:

This another race with horses running for a $5k tag, this one a multi-conditioned claimer for fillies and mares that have either never won 4 races or have not won three times in a calendar year. This is another spot where I don’t really have a creative opinion. Much About It (3) simply looks better than most of these. She won at this level two back and was claimed by Amoss. He moved her up to an optional claiming/allowance spot, where she wasn’t embarrassed, but was clearly not as good as some of those horses. She slides back to this level in decent form for top flight connections. Money Inthe Stars (7) was hammered to even money last out at this level and had a legitimate excuse when she was steadied hard on the backside. She still ran on well to get third that day, and has hit the board in her last four tries.  Both of these should be pretty short prices here.

Race 5:

Fillies and mares, three year olds and up, who have never won twice or are three years old, run with a $15,000-$10,000 tag at 1 Mile on the turf. Yesterday, all four turf races were won by horses coming from off the pace, rallying in an outer lane. I’m looking for horses that can find that kind of trip in this race. Wave of Goodness (2) is one of the three year olds, and she is coming off a solid second place finish at this level last out, while facing older horses. Compared to her races on the grass earlier in the meet, she was more relaxed last time out, while sitting off the early pace, and coming home well to be the runner up. If Murrill is able to carve out a similar trip, I think she’ll be dangerous, as there are a few horses that want to be near the front end, that I think will be backing up late. Beautiful Bella (4) found herself in a slow paced race last out and didn’t get to showcase her late kick she displayed two back when breaking her maiden. She drops in class this afternoon and finds a field where she should be more competitive. I’m interested in seeing what Mad Tabby (1), who is the other three year old in this race, can do when moving to the grass for the first time. She’s sired by Magician, so there’s definitely some turf influence there. She beat a weak field on the main track at two turns to break her maiden last out, so she’ll definitely need to step up her game to hit the board here. I do think she’s one of the better price stabs in the field, especially coming off a win. I’m covering the morning line favorite, Titan’s Treasure (8), who is dropping for a tag for the first time in her ten race career, on deeper tickets. She’s second off the layoff but really hasn’t improved a ton to this point in her career. She was a $335,000 purchase that was given every chance, but I think her connections realize this is the level where she’ll be more competitive. I’ll cover her horizontally, as this is a significant drop in class, but I’ll probably try to beat her in any vertical exotics.

Race 6:

The double-carryover late Pick-5 sequence starts here with $12,500 maiden claimers going 1 Mile and 70 Yards. Patriot’s War (2) has gone off form a bit at this meet and takes a significant drop in class this afternoon. I’ve seen a lot of this horse’s races in his career, and this is by far the softest group he’s seen, even with his off the turf races. He had excuses in his last two, catching a sloppy track on New Year’s Eve and being 4 to 5 wide on both turns on the turf last out. He gets a better post and the leading rider today, so I think it’s now or never for him at a short number here. If you’re not sold on the favorite, the only other logical play seems to be Easy To Miss (1), who has been second in his last two at these conditions. Make’n Tracks, who beat him two back, put forth a solid effort when facing a respectable group of winners for the first time earlier in the week.  

Race 7:

More maiden claimers go here, this one for three and up, running with a $30,000-$25,000 tag, going 5 and ½ Furlongs on the turf. I’m not sold on the shorter prices in this race as both Suggested (3) and On The Muscle (8) have had many chances, while running for solid connections in races against better and similar fields. Both have been on the shelf since the fall and both feel vulnerable to me. Summer Tune (5) is worth a long look while cutting back to a turf sprint. His two best races in his form lines are sprinting on the grass, including a near miss at Belmont in his debut back in June. He’s tried various surfaces and distances, but I think this is where he will be the best. He should be closing well while cutting back, on a course that has been kind this week to horses running down the outer lanes in the stretch. Breezy Money (6) tries turf for the first time and drops to face maiden claimers for the first time as well.  He’s second off the layoff after showing some zip before fading badly at two turns in his return. His pedigree suggests that turf will be okay for him and I like that Graham keeps the mount after his dismal showing last out. Keep a Eye On Mike (4) might be worth a look at longer odds. He’s had several gaps in his running lines for a horse with only four career starts, but his best race by far was his lone turf sprint at Churchill. He’s been working well in the mornings for Roussel, who has a good record with horses coming layoffs. Vehement (10) will need a scratch to get in off the AE list, be he’s worth a look if he is does draw in. He just missed in his last two against softer foes on the dirt and was claimed by Broberg last time. He moves him up in class, but gets him back sprinting on turf. His NYRA form in the summer of 2019 on turf suggests that is where he’ll run his best races and he’s in pretty decent form right now as well.

Race 8:

State bred three year old fillies that have never won twice run in an allowance company here. Half Koo Koo (4) beat Hotmolly on debut on grass, and that one came back to beat older horses yesterday. She followed up her debut with a solid effort on the main track, fighting on gamely when beaten by a nice filly in Cilla, while facing winners for the first time. I think she can move forward again with these today. Thetruthisthetruth (3) also faced winners for the first time last out and was a little closer to a hot pace for that day than she probably should have been. If Hernandez can work out the trip she got in her maiden breaking effort two starts ago, I think she stands a solid chance here. Taylor Avenue (2) had a strange trip in that same race as she started dropping back, looking like she was retreating, before gaining late as the front runners were starting to tire. She adds blinkers today, which may help her focus. She was stakes placed three starts back, so she definitely has some ability. Shades of Truth (5) was hard ridden throughout the stretch, but broke her maiden handily last out. Her two poor races in her form line came against Australasia, who looks to be the best three year old filly in training that was bred in Louisiana, and her one try on the grass. Her other two dirt races are strong, but I do wonder if others will be finishing better than she will be.

Race 9:

The feature today is an optional $40K claiming N2X allowance race for turf sprinters. There are many ways you can go in the spot, but I’m thinking Wile E Peyote (7) is going to be able to run back to his last effort, which was a strong second at this level while going off at 32-1. He’s reunited with Chris Block who got him to run some of his better career races. He wasn’t awful this summer at Woodbine, but looked better in a shorter sprint last out. He’s been successful at this distance and his running style fits the way that horses have been winning on this course with the rails all the way out. Bad Beat Brian (8) seems to have figured some things out since joining Mike Maker’s barn, as he’s won his last two races, both sprinting on the turf. He’ll need to take another step forward to beat these while moving up in class, however, he’s in sharp form at the moment. Irish Hokie (4) makes his second start off the Hartman claim. He ran sharp last out when the race at this level was taken off the turf. Hartman has won 23% of his turf sprint races that he’s entered horses in over the last two years, with a gaudy $8.35 ROI. I’d bet that this one runs an improved race getting back to turf. Kingpin (3) may be the best of the early speed horses in here, dropping out of stakes company at Sam Houston. He was strong here two back at the N1X level. He could be dangerous if he doesn’t get much pace pressure, but I think he’s really going to have dig in late to win this one.

Race 10:

Multi-conditioned state bred claimers close the carryover sequence this afternoon. Two three year olds take on eight four year olds that have never won twice. A lot of these races at this condition during this meet have been won by runaway winners. Perfect Perigree (1) may be faster than most of these in the early stages of this race. He faces older horses for the first time while dropping in class. He’s caught wet tracks against better fields in his last two races. He should get a fast track today and could be very tough while getting class relief. If this race does fall apart, I think the two most likely horses to pick up the pieces are Shackle The Gold (3) or Herewecometogetyou (10). Shackle The Gold came up empty last out, but was running better races prior to that start. He’s met runaway winners in his last two, but if Perfect Perigree isn’t that type of horse, he could be passing a lot of these late. Herewecometogetyou broke his maiden in December and has a few solid tries against winners, including a decent second last out. His best chance is for the race to fall apart on the front, which is a possibility here. On deeper tickets, Midnight Spirit (7) is worth a look. He’s been steadily improving and ran a credible race against winners at this level last out. I think he wants to be forwardly placed though, despite showing that he doesn’t necessarily need to be. My concern is that he’ll try to go with Perfect Perigree early, which I don’t think will end well for him if he does.