Fair Grounds Racing Preview – 3/21/21 – By Eric Solomon

We’re down to the final six cards of racing for the 2020-21 Fair Grounds Meet. Note that there’s an additional day of racing scheduled for Wednesday this week coming up, perhaps to make up for the card that was rained out last month. Yesterday’s Louisiana Derby was won by Hot Rod Charlie, shipping in from Southern California to take the biggest prize of the meet. Travel Column won the break and exacted revenge on her rival Clairiere to win the Fair Grounds Oaks. We have nine races on the Sunday card highlighted by some nice maiden special weight races and a state bred N1X allowance going in Race 7. The late multi-race sequences have big, wide open fields, which look like they may be worth spending some time and attention on this afternoon.

Race 1:

The Sunday opener is for state bred $5K claimers that have either never won four times or have not won twice in six months. It looks like half the field wants to be forwardly placed going into the first turn, which should set things up nicely for both Taken Back (6) and Rifle Man (2). Taken Back was claimed at this level after dropping from better competition. Faucheux takes over and brings him back to a two turn race, which I think what he prefers to do. I’m expecting a better effort this afternoon. Rifle Man has run three solid races in a row, winning at this level most recently. His last race was his first win in over a year, so he remain eligible for this condition. His stablemate is Star Banjo (1) who also ran on 3/11 in the same race. Both horses, trained by Justin Jeannsome, had the outside two posts that day, and today they draw the inside two posts. Star Banjo was dull last out with a wide trip, but he was a winner at this level two back in the slop. I think he can run better races than what we saw from him last out.

Race 2:

The first turf contest of the day is a maiden special weight race for three year old fillies on the grass. Both Mark Casse and Cherie DeVaux send out two in this race today, and I like one of each of their horses. DeVaux won yesterday on the turf with a horse off a layoff (Three Flamingos) and she is bringing both Gam’s Mission (7) and Bella Conchita (4) here to make their second career starts and their 2021 debut. I prefer Gam’s Mission as she had the misfortune of running into eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner, Aunt Pearl, in her debut. She was second that day, beaten five, so it’s clear that she can run a bit. She adds Lasix after a string of steady works for her return. Love In The Air (2) was second here in January in a strong 14 horse maiden special weight on Lecomte Day. She scratched out of a race that was taken off the grass last month and waited for this spot here. She’s been close in all four starts and is a major player in this race. On deeper tickets, Dallas Stewart has an interesting longshot in Perfect Limit (6). She tries the grass in her second start after a dull debut on dirt. Her sire was a turf horse and her dam, Two Item Limit, was a multiple graded stakes winner on dirt, but her pedigree had some turf influence as well. The Stewart barn has been hot lately with some decent priced horses. Peace Broke (1) should finally get on the turf after some solid dirt efforts. War Front is her sire, so there’s reason to believe that should could take a step forward on the grass.

Race 3:

Maiden claimers going 6 Furlongs, running with a $15,000-$10,000 tag are what we’re working with in the 3^rd. Some have been competing at this level and others are dropping in class. Black Hawk Ridge (4) ran at this level in his debut, but ran in what was probably the fastest $15K maiden claiming race of the meet. He was 3^rd beaten 17 that day, but didn’t run an awful figure. He should be more competitive today as I think he’ll improve in what may feel like a little class relief. Both Saint Goar (3) and Pilot Prince (6) are dropping out of the same race at the $30,000-$25,000 maiden claiming level. Saint Goar was strong third in another above average heat at this level in December, but he has struggled while moving up the class ladder. He fits better back in here. Pilot Prince has been improving in his first two starts at the meet and now takes another drop in class to figure out where he best fits. He does get a rider upgrade with Pedroza picking up the mount.

Race 4:

We have another maiden special weight at two turns on the turf, this one for three year olds and up. One three year old, Blue Boon (3) entered in hopes of making his turf debut. He’s certainly bred for the turf, and perhaps this spot might be a little easier than the maiden special weight on yesterday’s card (where Asmussen sent out two runners, including the even money favorite who won and the third place finisher). I’ll cover him on deeper tickets, but I prefer Implication (4) who has two solid turf races at Tampa with maiden special weight company with an awful dirt race sandwiched in between. He’s second off the layoff and finds a relatively soft spot here. Rochambeau (8) has the best speed figures and runs them consistently, despite having lots of mini breaks in his form lines. He’s 0-10 though, while finishing second five times. He keeps getting close enough to keep including him on tickets, but he still hasn’t visited the Winner’s Circle.

Race 5:

A field of 13 $12,500 maiden claimers have entered this race, with three coupled entries, leaving 10 betting interests. Danza Lauren (1) is intriguing to me in this wide open contest. She ran two credible sprints in her first two career starts at the $15K maiden claiming level. She tried the turf and then the slop at two turns and did not run as well as she did sprinting. She cuts back today and looks to be dangerous here. Her stablemate, Miss Unionist (1A) is probably not one that I’d bet on her own, but I don’t mind having her as insurance, as she cuts back in distance and drops in class while racing on the dirt for the first time. Chambers Creek (6) drops and comes back to dirt after finishing 6^th in a sprint with better on the turf. She’s faced significantly better horses in her only two dirt starts, and gets a favorable rider switch to Riquelme. Media Mendacity (4) draws the rail, which isn’t ideal among this full field. However, she’s another one taking a significant drop in class. She has a strong dirt race in a sprint three back at Keeneland. She’s third off the layoff and probably going to go off as the post time favorite.

Race 6:

The late pick 4 starts with a 14 horse maiden claiming contest for three year old fillies running with a $30,000-$25,000 tag. This race is absolutely wide open with plenty of options. I think the most likely winner is Paytience Pays (7) making her second career start for Brad Cox. He also trains first timer, Parker Eva (8) starting in the stall next door. Both fillies were purchased for over $100K, and both fillies debuted for a tag much lower than that. Paytience Pays showed she can run a bit, running a respectable third with $50K maiden claimers last month. She adds blinkers for her second start. It is worth noting that Geroux winds up on Parker Eva, but Colby Hernandez piloted Paytience Pays in her debut, so I’m not really bothered by that. I will cover with Parker Eva on deeper tickets, despite having some questions about her in here. Paysonattheplate (10) is a live longshot, listed at 20-1 on the morning line. Her two dirt starts weren’t good, but she definitely ran better on the turf while sprinting. She’s by Exaggerator out of a Fantastic Light mare, so I’d think that two turns on the grass would be agreeable. I don’t love having Carlos Marquez aboard in a 14 horse field, but at long odds, I think she’s worth a shot. Slightly Sassy (13) was about 10 lengths behind Paytience Pays in her debut last month. She showed some early interest before fading late. Brendan Walsh’s horses tend to improve in their second starts, wining 28% of the time. She also drops and adds blinkers in hopes of working out a decent trip from post 13.

Race 7:

State bred horses, four years old and up go six furlongs in N1X allowance company in the feature today. I’m going to try Cajun Up (8) to sit just off the early speed and run them down late. He won two straight with claiming company and jumped up to N3X allowance company in a race scheduled for the turf. He finished last that day, and now slides back to the N1X condition on the main track. Dixie Street (6) was claimed after a big effort two back to beat multi-conditioned $15K claimers. He faded late at this level last time after chasing the early lead. Colby Hernandez takes over in hopes of getting him to rate a little more kindly here. Money and Me (9) debuted like a good thing in December, but had trouble at the break and didn’t get to really run his race last out. He’s had a short break and has been working well for his first start in two months. Soul Song (3) is all about the early lead, but he’s going to have to work with it with the presence of Roux Ga Roux (10) to his outside. I feel like they could duel each other into submission, but I’ll use them both as a saver, as front end speed wasn’t the worst thing to have on the main track yesterday.

Race 8:

The final turf race of the day is the third maiden special weight on the grass today. This one is an oversubscribed field for three year old fillies. It’s absolutely wide open and the form lines are definitely clouded as many of these have run on dirt in races that were taken off the turf. Let’s Skedaddle (6) cuts back in distance and gets the services of Florent Geroux. She looks like a horse that could be flying late as many of these are backing out of the picture. Ursulina (9) for Al Stall, who had a winner on the big card yesterday, made the lead on the main track before tiring badly in her debut. As a daughter of More Than Ready, I’d think she’d be better on the grass. I’ve been waiting for Fortheloveoflydia (15) to get a race to go on the grass, and it looks like she’ll have to keep waiting as she’s deep on the AE list. Her pedigree suggests she’ll be good sprinting on the turf. Her dirt debut was a useful race at Delaware despite her dull effort. Arbitrary (2) was chasing the leaders in the same off the turf race many of these are coming out of on 2/20. Stidham does well getting horses on the grass for the first time and I think she’s better than her last. Natalie Would (3) closed well to be third that day in her debut. Her pedigree doesn’t scream turf, but she’s with good connections in this wide open spot.

Race 9:

The finale is a maiden special weight for Louisiana bred three year old fillies. 13 have entered, but only 12 will go. Aphrodites Revenge (11) debuted in a similar spot last month, was part of the early pace scenario, before fading to 4^th. She makes her second career start and adds Florent Geroux, who has won 28% of his races on this track during this meet, before riding full time at Oaklawn. Calhoun sent out a winning first time starter in the male counterpart to this race yesterday (Micajah), and he has another horse, Sweet Jackieleigh (6) with a similar workout pattern. None of the experienced horses look like world beaters, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one run well on debut. I prefer her a little more than Gigablast (8) who definitely has some sharper AM drills. Shirer has had a good meet, but it’s been some time since he’s won with a first time starter. Beschizza opts to ride this one, so there are positive signs. On deeper tickets, I like Box of Pictures (1), who draws the rail, which isn’t ideal, and will have to be better at the start than she was last time out. However, I think she’s a live longshot in her second career start for Camejo. It’s interesting to see the blinkers coming off, but it’s worth noting if the connections think that could be an advantage. Calhoun has the morning line favorite here with Summer Is Hot (10) who has been improving in her three starts. She was second beaten five at this level last out and may benefit from getting an outer draw after being posted on the rail last time.