Gulfstream Park April 1st – Maiden Watch Races 1 and 6. Other Picks FIRING AWAY on Florida Derby Day UPDATED w Changes

Any Stats or percentages are based on specific Scenario in the last 5 years unless stated otherwise.   Example –  1st Time Starter / Sprint / Dirt / MSW.    TYPO Disclaimer I keep finding my self using abbreviations that I use in my Formulator Trip notes out of habit and some I fail to fix on proof reading.

Going to cross my fingers and hope they do not move Races 1 and 6 to the Tapeta.     This is likely the last Gulfstream Post for me as I will shift my focus to Keeneland.   Storms rolling in as I type so having to cut the proof read SHORT ….    GOOD LUCK ALL

Race 1 – 1 Mile on Turf – 3 year Old Fillies MSW 

1 Malibu Smart – Romans just does not win first out long on the grass.

2 Ogema Bay,    Barn can hit with a first timer for a price but not seen any sign this one is ready although is a half sibling to Divisidero who did win 1st out along with 2 other siblings.

3 (A)  Prerequisite     First Timer for Brown which I have been highly against here at GP even though he finally got here last week….   Normally would be against this one as well, BUT     OLD WORK – If you go back leading up to Breeders cup this one work heads of with Raging Sea and most recently worked over the Dirt with Speak of the Devil.

4 (C) Mo Town Mayhem goes out for Casse showing some fast Turf works, but does not attract a favorable rider.  Barn is 11% in this spot last 5 years.

5 (B) Spansive goes out for Pletcher who is only 9% with 1st Timer/LongGrassMSW last 5 years.     Does have a decent Turf work recently, will be including defensively.

6 Millennium Park’s two dirt races were filled with traffic issues and now will try the grass.  Proctor is 3 for 25 with this move in the last 5 years.    She is trying something new here and has experience but I will pass.

7 (A)  Gloria’s Princess debuts for Walsh who is 8% in this scenario.     I thought it was interesting that Saez lands here and I liked the March 1st Work that can be watched over on XBTV.

9 Gravy    GREAT NAME!!  Who is that, just old gravy.    No workout information on gravy and the barn is 0 for 9 in this spot the last

TOP PICK – 7 Gloria’s Princess in a tough opener with no standouts and a lot of angles to consider.    If you are building early P5’s tickets we at least get some tote signal to consider.


Race 2 – This is where most will look to spread with a lot of questions to be answered.

Top Pick here is 0 for 26 – #6 Jerry’s Turn this 5 year old tried sprinting on the tapeta for the first time in his last where he was 2 back in hand at rail through the turn, off turn completely blocked and Javier just sit until the 16th pole and finally got a lane but the race was over at that point.   Galloped out nicely.   Before that he consistently showed up in route races.

Others to consider 2 , 4 , 9 and 12

Race 3 Difficult to separate these 3 , maybe price can be your guide.

3 (A) Harry Time’s two races in the US he ran into OK Bloomer and Far Bridge running very well in both, he is one I have been waiting on to run back unfortunately I like a couple others here as well.

4 (A)   Behind Enemy Lines moves from some O Brien kids barn over in Europe to Sisterson and get Jose in the Irons, typically is one I would include as a backup , but both works I watched I really like this runner you can catch them over on XBTV.

8 (A) Kings Fortune won his debut impressively with Irad patiently working through traffic and when got clear in stretch proved much best with a strong gallop out and now will get on the Turf after washing off to the Tapeta in his debut win.

Race 4 –  A’s     1, 9 

Race 5 – I simply do not like anything about this race, if I am able to put an early Pick 5 play together I will look to have the ALL Button here or single the Favorite.

Race 6 – 1 Mile on Turf – 3 year old Fillies MSW

1 (C) Mirabella made her debut at Monmouth in July and has not been seen since.   Pletcher 2nd St / Turf / Rte MSW   18% but that is generally horses he has start long or on the Turf.   Is a positive that Saez is riding here.  Unfortunately I do not have much workout information on this one.

2  Secrets Galore made 3 starts at Woodbine last year and now will make her first start Turf Routing for Casse.    Her last work she looked a touch better than her previous work over at Palm Meadows maybe a sign she is ready at a huge price.   Vet Scratch Feb 18th definitely a big negative.

(A) Good Value ran well on debut for Brown when she was 3 wide from the start responded well when asked bumped another off turn wide and finished well.    Claiming off Chad can be tough but would not under estimate this barn.

4 Andromache could be anything but with no workout information for a barn that is 0 for 9 with first time starters going long on the grass in 5 years.   Imagine just looking to get some experience.

5 (A) Tiger Tap took money on debut at Kentucky Downs then shipped to Gulfstream and ran a big race on Dec 26th just missing at wire then galloping out nicely.   Then did nothing wrong on Feb 11th.    Gets the Turf for the first time here at GP.    Last couple works on the grass she looked a touch better than previous.  Must use for me.

(C) Love Rhapsody has the Jan 8th race on paper to flatter her, but she had a bit of a soft lead and a spill in the stretch prevented others from getting a chance in the stretch and was no match for the winner late.   Paco will be sending here so if gets brave on the front end would not be shock.

7 Milan Mischief showed nothing on debut and now will try the grass.  Barn is 5 for 18 with this move in last 5 years.

8 Meow Meow Hiss

9 The Archangel

10 (A) Get Your Kicks    Brown is 27% in this spot.   Drop to 17% when narrow to first time Turf.    March 18th work she was under a strong hold early and galloped out well in hand.  She is a must use A horse here but likely will be a short price.

11 (B) Every Time will make her second start for Mott after trying the Dirt in her last and took money that day.   With no workout information must include defensively.

12 (A) Holy Foly will make her second start off the bench and for Lynch barn.    Her last there was nothing to get that excited about but was coming off a break.   Lep has been working this filly regularly and her last couple works she looks to have picked it up a bit.   With no standouts in here she could take more money than expected

AE –  13 (A) Starship Agenda will be a big price and one I would like to see draw in.   Debut she was outpaced early, running home in stretch same pace with decent energy and was well back at the line then quickly galloped out past the field.    Barn has a small sample with this scenario  1 for 7 in last 5 years.   If she gets in I want her on my tickets.

Top Pick if gets in the race will be the 13 Starship Agenda 20-1 > 35-1 at post time?      if she draws in the race wide post is not ideal but will push the price even higher,   Alternate – 12 Holy Foly


Race 7 – Any one of these could be on the lead in what could be a snails pace.     4  O Conner – After his last 2 hard to back this one with much confidence but if can find the Dec 31st race he can take Simplification my only other A in this spot.   IF AND N’s BUTS

Race 8   –  6 Personal Best her win on Pegasus day is much better than the paper suggests, and 90% of the money here are not gonna watch these replays.   Other A’s   5 and 8

Race 91 Dean Delivers          Alternate – 4 Weyburn    Those are my only 2 A’s here but I will rooting for my lone B –   Celestial Glaze 

Race 10 –   6 Marketsegmentation will be a short price.   I handicapped this race with no morning line as I normally do and surprisingly my only other A horse was the 7 Kahiko at 30-1 ML?    This is a tough race with many going off of Lasix, but I assure you if I get 30-1 on the 7.   I will be taking a big swing here.


Race 11The SCratch of Mrs Astor here has blew up my whole day lol –    I just want the 2 and 5 in here.

Race 12 –   4 Affirmative Lady will be my top pick,  she did get Lasix in her last and will not have the benefit of Lasix today.   She may get run off her feet here but I was impressed with her last sitting behind a slow pace and waited patiently off turn for some room.   When Junior shook the reins she took over pulling away while never asked for her best.   Form shows adding blinkers today BUT    she had blinkers on in her last and worked in blinkers on Feb 18th before that race.       Other A – 8     B’s   2 , 5

Race 13 –     6 Steady ON   Tough race with a lot of other speed but if Chantel gets out clean on this one going 1 Mile he will be tough to catch.     Other A’s –  1, 5,     B’s   3 , 12

Race 14 –   Lone A is   11 Forte                                  4 Mage I gave out Mage on Debut at a price and more than likely should have got off the boat after but he is the only other in here I could give another chance.    Fountain of Youth he hit the gate and got behind horses which was not the game plan.                Underneath Bomb to consider   8 Mr. Ripple    Zayas sticks and Mr Ripples just seems to be the type who can grind and plod along all day.


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