I was all pumped up going into Thursday when the racing gods decided to jerk me back into reality handing me my 1st losing day of the meet. Found only my 3rd strong win bet of the meet yesterday, that drops me 2 for 3 on significant win bets for the meet.
On to Friday where I was not able to find a standout that I want to lean on, will be just some multi’s and may couple small action plays. Lets play the cards we are dealt and move on to Saturday.
Championship Meet ROI – Amount Wagered – $2387.40 Return – $4706.7 – ROI 97.15%
Race 1 – MD 12.5 Kinda surprised only 7 entered here, but that does help. There is no outcome in here that would not shock me.
A – 5 Pirate Radio made 3 starts at Colonial vs much stiffer competition before shipping to Gulfstream, ran around track picking up tired horses in last. Was claimed by a barn that plays the claiming game well, Jose on board should be the favorite here.
B – 4 Jake’s Affection debut is a bit better than it looks, but was awful in last start. Has been gelded since maybe that solves a problem or two.
Others
2 – Battle of Dover could win, this horse was absolutely awful in his last. I will be fine letting him beat me.
3 – Bachman is one you could toss on a ticket, had 5 starts now takes a slight drop while trying the tapeta for the first time.
6 – T B Twelve Always (See bachman)
7 – Stable Storm first timer for a barn that is 14% with first time starters but that is all inclusive. 0 for 2 with first timers going a route of ground.
Race 2 is an interesting MSW with what I think will be some take out reducers running.
A – 1 Exercise of Power I debated back and forth almost using as a B. I was impressed with the debut, lost 3/4L in the turn when checked regrouped finished well just missing 2nd. Looked good on Dec 13th over the turf although was a bit hot in the coat.
A – 2 Alexis Zorba is deserving of favoritism here. Has plenty of speed and makes his first start in Maker’s care. The 5 furlongs should be ideal for him, making him a lone A would be logical but others here I like as well.
A – 4 Bear Bear adds blinkers for his 3rd start after running a very nice 5 furlong tapeta race in last finishing well while in tight on rail, could sit right off the 2 and have a chance in the lane.
B – 5 Dundie has not been seen since his August debut where he ran well but nothing flashy, comes back here trying turf for Saffie. 26% 2ndSt/Turf/Spt/MSW w Edgar increases to 30%.
B – 8 Secret Threat changes to Casse and tries the turf, after getting some racing experience early in 2023.
Others to note
3 Power of Justice debuts for a barn not known for 1st time starters, but thought was interesting this one worked w Yes I Am Free and held his own for awhile. Likely will need a race or two.
6 Charge Off and the 10 Determined Effort both for Pletcher could be anything and will be over bet. 13% in this category and at Gulfstream 2 for 31 in the last 5 years w 1st/T/Spt/MSW …
7 Ajaayb had a decent debut turf sprinting here in April, has changed barn since.
Race 3 is a bit of a grab bag.
A – 1 Lucky Peridot is without a doubt the veteran of this group. 7 for 44 lifetime, 3 for 10 on the dirt, 3 for 7 going 1 Mile on the dirt. Seemed to really like Los Al many moons and barns ago. My figures for this one are way above everyone else in the field and she has done on all surfaces at all different distances. Unless the workout report jumps out with another contender here I likely will single and take my chances.
B – 4 Principia will make her second start after an extended break. Before they tried stakes company with her in July, she had a couple decent tapeta routes and some solid 7F Dirt races. Obviously would have to take a big step up but I found her interesting.
B – 6 Steel Racer is lightly raced, she broke her maiden going a mile at Ellis not so impressively but she does get an outside post for her new barn.
Race 4 – 5 Furlong on Tapeta Maiden OPTIONAL there is only 1 runner in for tag, stats wise I treat this one as a MSW
Pending Probable payouts I will consider a 6 / 3 ICE COLD!!! Exacta here.
A – 6 Test Factor is a lone A and will be a short price deserving favorite here. Barn is 1 for 3 in this category, colt broke sharp from rail going clear fairly quickly staying on well getting caught at 16th going 5.5F’s not cuts to 5 with an outside post.
B- 3 Wild Caught I could see using equally coming out of the same race as the favorite. Unhurried raced in the 3 path in behind horses, stayed well in stretch splitting horses. My concern is the 5F may be a bit sharp and will be chasing a fast favorite.
C – 1 Fulanito did show some speed in Sept but ultimately was hard ridden early with little response. Has came back working very well.
C – 8 Coercive is a mention simply because I have no information on this one and I was a fan Bucherro, that has carried over to his offspring. Barn is only 1 for 23 in this situation.
Then of course we have a handful of 1st time starters, 1st Tapeta etc.
Race 5 going 1 mile on Turf For N3L or time restricted. Usually I love these type races on the grass, but could not find a standout here.
A – 4 Sals Dream Girl takes a significant class drop coming out of NY ALL races. She is super consistent her entire career showing up time and time again.
A – 5 Musical Romance has not been since May when running a handful here GP last year she looked loaded a few times and then just would be flat in the lane. Moves to Saffie, assuming Edgar chose her over the 9. Has a couple Dirt works in October I watched like her races early 23 she just looked loaded the entire work.
I am having a hard time convincing myself to rely on the two above since I can make a case for nearly all of these.
B – 1 Flying Back will be off claim for Barboza and move back to the turf where she has had limited opportunities. Jock is not bad either
B – 2 Founder’s Day was facing tougher in California but most races just ran around the track. Has races that fit here, I just have always found her kinda dull
B – 3 Latin Nikita if not for the layoff would be an A, those Canterbury races are very fast on the clock although I am not sure how they stack up here. The downgrade part comes with the layoff, seems to never fire off the bench.
C Everyone Else
No Win bets early for me today, but is the type Pick 5 that I will be playing Multiple Tickets pressing different opinions.
I will have 1 Large increment pressing my A’s and primarily focus on spreading in the 1st and 5th Legs.
R1 – 5 4 2,3,6,7
R2 – 1,2,4 5,8
R3 – 1
R4 – 6 3
R5 – 4,5 1,2,3 6,7,8,9
