All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
Thursday Review
R1 The Early Pick 5 started out with a horse I did not like at all for numerous reasons and was absolutely wrong.
The biggest takeaway I had from Thursday is the Tapeta is lightning fast!
I asked the big guy(The big guy with the sleigh, not the other “BIG GUY”) for an early pick 5 I could crush but he did not give me that for today although I do like it a bit more than Thursday.
So I will play a couple early pick 5 tickets today but nothing I am expecting to big things from. I will be forcing some singles in a couple places so proceed with caution.
Today’s Card as a whole is a bit underwhelming but hoping the rain leaves the forecast because Saturday card has some good spots!
Update and Final tickets will come post scratches.
Assuming Stays on Turf!! .50 play with the A Line’s cost a mere $16 which leaves other sport to spread if chose to.
R1 – 10
R2 – 5
R3 – 6 7 (ALL?)
R4 – 1 3 4 5
R5 – 1 2 3 7 (Option in singling the 2 here but $17,500 maiden claimers!)
WEATHER – There is 100% chance of rain today so best pay attention to late changes although it has not rained at Gulfstream Park in weeks so likely can take a bit of rain. (I am blaming my friend Howard Kravets for the rain, it has not rained the entire meet!! I believe he lands in South Florida this morning and its raining!!!!! C’MON MAN!!
TAPETA is already VERY!! Fast and typically rain makes it even faster making speed even more dangerous.
Race 1 I am forcing a single a bit with my top selection on a budget ticket and will wheel back with a pick 4 if necessary.
Wager – Small Double 10 into 5 more of action bet because would not be surprise is both lost.
LONE A 10 Change At Jamaica has the best figure of any others routing on any surface by a small margin. On debut ran a mediocre race while ridden early 3 wide and was a bit erratic ducking in/out same pace to wire. Casse is 25% in this spot. Caution – Lone A from a strategy stand point but did not impress me on debut.
B LINE is long… with no ground breaking handicapping here so will just list them out with short notes.
1 Dreams of Myfather
2 Salto Angel
4 Chill the J will be short price and Saffie is a mere 1 for 14 in this spot. When someone tell you he went a fast 47.4 working on the grass well he was shoved along aggressively to do so.
6 Mully’s Moon see the 9 on the next line
9 Sponge Time along w Mully’s Moon have 2 average tapeta routes on their resume. Neither have worked back since their last effort.
Race 2 is one might that you may want to take my opinion lightly. There are 4 runners exiting a common race on Dec. 7th that I felt I had a handle on and not a single horse in that race ran to expectations leading to me looking for someone new. IF !! not alive in my Race 1 Double I will win bet Franks Mimi
LONE A (NOT STRONG OPINION) 5 Franks Mimi gets back to the tapeta after trying the dirt twice versus state bred optional company. Yates horses are firing and Franks Mimi has the speed to go the lead if Rios chooses too. I see more of a scenario of letting Tyler go from the outside and stalking Steelers Mischief who simply stopped last time.
B LINE I likely will either use the 5 or hit the all button but if separating hairs…
1 Polar Bear Plunge is the completely new face in the field with only 1 synthetic race coming at Presque Isle going longer in what was a fast classy race. My issue is the lack of speed this gelding has shown.
3 Charge Off would be my choice if I had to pick a runner from that common race although well beaten that day at least this one has worked back since and Saez is very good routing on this tapeta track.
Race 3 going 3/4’s on the dirt for $12,500 screams volatile but I will only be using two.
A LINE changes a bit with the scratch of the favorite.
2 Shiloh (SCR) gets the morning line favorite role due to Irad. Sure can win but will be a major underlay.
6 Iron Shield is every bit as fast as the favorite if runs back to the Oct. 26th race. IF?
7 His choice moves into the A Line after the scratch of the favorite that just left me with Iron Shield who is not trustworthy(12.5 Claimers using trustworthy lightly)
Race 4 I need a few.
A LINE with no top pick here sums it up.
1 Loyal Louie I is a bit better going 5.5 furlong as opposed to the short 5 furlong today, but could trip out from the rail.
3 Highly Flammable was borderline not making the cut here but does have some tapeta races that are close enough.
4 Maxwell Esquire has faced horse much tougher than these his entire career. Last win came in 2022 and has never raced over a synthetic surface.
5 Last American Exit I will use but I do think the 5 furlongs maybe too sharp.
7 Three Zero(SCR) could not win facing straight claimer at the N3L level, but has outside speed and arguably the fastest tapeta races of this lot.
Race 5 I am going to put the likely chalk on top which is painful to do in a another low level maiden claimer.
A LINE there is no hidden stats, trips, or works here to mention.
1 Tycoon Mogul
2 Tonight I will put on top with the highest tapeta figure in the race by a slim margin.
3 Blazing Hot
7 Run My Card
