All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
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I will be covering the Early Pick 5, plus any strong plays, stakes, MSW late on cards. You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
Scratches did not change anything for me. Looking at Win Bets and Doubles throughout the card.
Early Pick 5 / Early 4 – I likely will skip Race 1 playing a Pick 4
R1 – 8
PICK 4
R2 – 1 3 5 6 7
R3 – 1 6
R4 – 2 4 6
R5 – 6
TURF P3
R2 – 1 3 5 6 7
R7 – 7 8 B – 1 3
R9 – 1 3 8
No Crush spots today but plenty of moderate win wagers and double plays.
Race 1 is for Maiden 12,500’s and I do not have much interest as these often provide volatile results….. I am keeping it simple with the favorite, the issue is playing a Pick 5 and singling this one is not really going to be gaining any equity.
LONE A – 8 Right Karma has not raced since July of 2023! SO… obviously I am not going to tell anyone I am very confident but you will get Saffie/Edgar. If can get back just close of the June 30th 2023 race then should handle this group easily. Once I get past this one then I would be spreading all over the place… So prefer to single or skip the race and play the Pick 4.
Race 2 will be the largest spread for me in the sequence.
1 Lamcaro ran just as good as the 3 Lean Music Machine last time so using one and not the other does not track….
3 Lean Music Machine See above … although had no excuse ran respectable.
5 Stick McShnickens has sprinted well on the tapeta and handled the turf routing on two occasions. Makes perfect sense in this spot and provides some value.
6 Precisely will be a short price for obvious reasons nothing hidden here.
7 Senor Marcelo I have not seen work on the grass but pedigree leans toward no problem..
I am not using the 8 but spreading this deep I would not argue someone wanting to toss on their ticket.
Race 3
1 Peggysue I Love U will be a short price because of the connections. Should be able to tuck in right behind the 2 and get a solid trip.
6 One Smokin’ Rita has made that steady improve and if she repeats her last then the 1 Peggysue I…. will most definitely need to improve off change to Saffie.
Race 4
A LINE
2 Gua Sha for Saffie who is 2 for 16 in this spot, add Zayas 2 for 7. I only found dirt works to watch of this filly that she looked average at best, but clocker report hints that she works better over the tapeta.
4 Spatula surprised on debut nearly holding on at 14-1 after setting some quick early fractions.
6 Inallprobability will likely be a single for many. I have seen her work over the tapeta and she looks just fine, but I question how good she is. Casse is giving up on her a bit quick…
Race 5
Lone A – 6 Rhum Saint Esprit in my opinion should be the clear favorite as I have his tapeta sprints clearly best of the group.
B Line
5 Holding the Line is a new face to the group for Ward.
7 Kosher Capone tries the tapeta for the first time while first off the claim for a hot barn.
DAILY DOUBLE
R5 – 6
R6 – 2
Race 6 has a handful of interesting horses dropping in class in a short field. I am going to take shot with the horse for course.
2 Avant Glory has almost won a 1/4 million the hard way here at Gulfstream and ran a nice race last time being first off the claim for Delgado.
Race 7
A LINE
7 Bourbon Thief has ran 3 very nice turf routes that I have rated a bit higher than the industry figures and Wilkes is now 4 for 10 at the meet. Gets Zayas up who is now 9 for 48 in turf routes for the meet and 46% in the money. This could be just the beginning of a big weekend for the barn.
8 Aspen Dawn I have to include after having my entire day built around her last time when came up short. She is running back off short rest here and not entirely sure she wants to go this far.
Race 8
LONE A – 8 Bah Humbug!! is another I am going to take a shot with on this card. I simply have her faster than all but 1 other runner
B – 1 Stormy Mitole is compromised by post position. The debut race with an outside draw would make her the favorite here but I will fade..
Race 9 is the most interesting race of the day and there are many in here that have reasons to improve that I will leave off my tickets.
A LINE Scratches will determine how I play my top pick here but definitely will be placing a WIN wager. With no scratches here I will play WIN / Place bet on the 8 Cheese… Show would depend on the pool..
1 Designer Bag will be facing winner and open bred fillies for the first time. She did not beat much last time sitting behind a slow pace and basically winning for fun.
3 Ramsey Pond I think is the horse to beat dropping out of listed stakes company. She has done nothing to wow me but has been consistent while not getting the best trips. Saffie /Edgar …
8 Cheese 15-1 I could be totally off on this filly and if I am it will not be the first time. She has slowly improved and the light bulb came on 2 back. Oct 26th race like Designer Bag she stalked a slow pace but was much the best but she got the trip that gets me every time… She was under a strangle hold early with Reyes sitting back in the irons, she boxed in behind horses when Reyes backed her out 4L then angled out and swallowed up the field…
