First of all apologies if came to ITM for Thursday coverage, I spent a little over an hour on the first 4 races and had nothing positive so then glanced at the 2nd half of the card and nothing stood out. TOSSED IT and moved on to Friday
I do like the early Pick 5 better than the later races today where I had a tough time with a couple races. Race 4 will be a play for me today along with multi race wagers.
Race 1 – 5 Furlong Turf MSW
A – 3 Up for it has the most experience of the group and some nice 5F races, I liked her on Dec 21st when she was bested by Beechland who got the jump on her coming for home. There are some lightly raced horses in this one with reasons to improve, but she is by far the most likely winner. I will take my chances here and move on. If I get beat will come back and swing with a pick 4 because once I get passed her I would have too many that I rate equally.
Wager – 5/2 ML seems generous, doubt we see that price.
Race 2
A – 1 Heathcliff will get some attention on the tote board simply from the connections and rightfully so. 3rd start / 2nd time for Saffie / Zayas up/ 1st Tag / 1st route / 1st Tapeta. I did not find any tapeta works on this one but before the Dec 3rd race had a nice work over the dirt pulling clear of game warden.
A – 4 T B Twelve Always dropped to this level for the first time last out but was no match for Pirate Radio and Battle of Dover but finished well. Big plodding type stride and gets a jock upgrade today that will do his homework and see this one needs to be moving early.
A – 7 Battle of Dover had a good trip last out and did everything right just lost the photo. Went out well with good energy, the question mark is that he was claimed out of that race by a barn I know little about. I will make this one my top pick with some reservations.
There are a handful of others trying the tapeta for the first time I would consider backups but with no work information on the tapeta I have no reason to back them with dollars
B – 8 , 9 , 10
Race 3 has a severe lack of pace for a 5F sprint. So I suspect someone is going to send I am just not certain who that would be.
A – 2 Fight was claimed from Giddings last summer and now makes his way back into her barn. Showed enough speed in the past to get the lead here and will look recreate that 22/23 form that had some solid efforts over this surface.
A – 7 Grand Bey has an outside post and drops to lowest level of career. Entered on Wednesday of this week for 16K but re-entered for this spot. Irad is up in a short field of questionable horses will be a short price with no stand out.
B – 5 Robyn and Eli is a long way from the NY Stakes company in 2022. Drops to a new low and takes the blinkers back off that were added for the last two tries on tapeta. Biggest concern with this one is lack of speed but if could get involved early maybe she will be a factor. Not sure why they put her in vs the boys here.
Race 4
A – 1 Okay Fine now faces winners for the first time after dropping to $12,500 maidens to get the win. Nearly broke her maiden in Oct. when getting on the tapeta for the first time. Next out was stuck wide and jock sit up once had no chance, could have finished better that day. She has enough speed to stick close and will save ground.
B – 3 Stuck in Malibu I believe is a step behind Okay Fine. She has been consistent in 14 starts with solid races over the tapeta. Now goes 2nd off the bench here after running extremely well last out when you consider the trip. I am not one to criticize jocks but the Dec 22nd ride was bloody awful from the start. She gets Junior aboard today who rode her when she broke her maiden back in March over this surface.
Wager Probable payouts and price will determine structure here.
Win Bet 1 Okay Fine – Price Dependent
Exacta – 1 over 3 , 6 Backup Ex – 3 over 1
Tri – 1 over 3, 6 over 3,6,7
Race 5
A – 2 And Uwish is a 1st timer for Orseno barn who is 4 for 42 the last 5 years with this type. Working well over the tapeta, best over Roan on Dec 17th who broke the maiden on Jan 5th.
A – 11 Test Factor looks to be the favorite here after besting Fulanito at the wire last out and now gets another 1/2F to work with. The debut at this distance also leans in this one’s favor.
There are others here with reasons to move forward if you are looking to spread. I will take my shot with the A’s and move along.
B – 3 Improptude first 3 starts were on the tapeta and were average at best. Although did take a step forward last out when receiving lasix for the first time and now moves back to the tapeta.
B – 4 Sniper Jack will likely be outpaced here but has 3 decent races at woodbine and now comes back as a gelding.
B – 6 Caciuque Abbario is 0 for 5 trying the tapeta for the first time, Had a decent work over the tapeta on Jan 12th not overly impressive but did nothing wrong.
B – 9 Overmars I see less likely than the others I have listed as backups but the debut was solid tiring in the last 16th.
Other 13 Fort Charles is one to include if you are looking at verticals but I would not want on top.
Race 6
SCRATCH – A – 6 Emaraaty for Chad who is 0 for 17 at the meet. Today is the day!! This group does not have a Running Bee, Fort Washington, Pioneering Spirit, Emmanuel, Sifting Sands, Atone , Value Pro…. You get the point
If you are not gonna pick Chad’s horse today, Then you might as well hit the all button and cross your fingers. UPDATED with the Scratch of my Lone A,
Moves – 7 Henleys Joy to an A as the most likely winner here.
B – 5 Novo Sol is the only other that interests me. Has faced some tough company over synthetic surfaces and has limited tries on the grass. I want to see more of before writing him off completely.
Race 7 I found a bit tough, with a possibility I am overthinking it..
A – 3 Cape Trafalgar
A – 6 Mr Ripple has not been seen since the FL Derby and now in the Clement barn.
A – 7 Endpoint has also changed barns. I know the August maiden breaker at Ellis was an off turf win but I really like the fight this one showed. Was ridden early on the lead digging in battled, put foe away while the winner came inside Corrales did a great job getting this one to the winner before the wire and Endpoint was game in defeat. Ran well again on the dirt Nov 24th. Chad gets 2 W’s today ?
A – 8 Bourbon Resolve
A – 9 Unbridled Honor
Race 8 is another I could not form a very strong opinion other than looking at the pace. Appears plenty of speed in here and not only do they want the lead they NEED it.
A – 1 Go Big Green for Saffie with Irad = short price. When this one was claimed in August of 22′ I don’t think they expected a 2023 return. Has closed into slow paces before and when getting pace to run at has ran extremely well. This one is not a lone A out of confidence, is more I made myself pick 1
B – 2 Latin Nikkita has been in some fast races at Canterbury and now gets claimed by Breen with Paco up. A strong combination
Race 9 1 1/16th Tapeta MD25
A – 2 Uptown Cat makes her 3rd start here after running below average last out at this same distance, but unlike many in here she was still running in the lane. Adds Blinkers today after adding some fitness
A – 4 Madonnina 12-1 ML is my top pick here, She took no money on debut and just ran around the track at the rail. I did like her work prior to debut on Dec 3rd over the surface, comes back here with some experience gets Jose up here.
A – 6 Mexican Sugar makes her 4th start , drops first time for a tag, 2nd off bench, 1st route. I think the extra ground will help this one as she has showed little in her 3 previous starts.
B – 3 Kap Hoorn for Saffie / Zayas 2nd out. Likely should be using this one as an A, but nothing in her works has ever stood out to me.
B – 7 Miss Mutz debuts for Breen with Paco up. I was a bit surprised when I looked up Breen record the last 5 years , 1stStart/Route/TurfORsyn/for a tag 0 for 6
B – 9 Melody’s Kiss will take money here, takes a big drop in class after running this distance at Woodbine showing very little. Maybe she puts these to sleep plodding along, but I will likely not be using her.
TURF PICK 3 ICE COLD
R1 – 3
R6 – 6
R8 – 1
Championship Meet ROI – Amount Wagered – BEHIND ON BOOK KEEPING
Stats for Just the Early Pick 5 Races on Blog
Not all races had a top Pick – Top Pick Winner 35 for 100
A Selection Winner – 83 of 120
Races I completely WIFFED 22 of 120
