All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
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I will be covering the Early Pick 5 in detail, and quick thoughts on rest of card.
You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
Pegasus Day After having a nice day early on in the Pegasus contest the outcome would have been the same for me regardless as I was WRONG ! about Integration who did run well and at the quarter poll I knew I was in trouble with my take on White Abbarrio.
How good was Limited Liability GEEZ!
Waiting on the right spot! Even after the big Pegasus card of quality races my biggest wager of the weekend came Sunday on Anybody But You. Wanted to mention since this is a great example of patience. I was hoping this one would have ran back on Pegasus Day due to the contest but that was not to be. The Point….. I wagered more of my bankroll on this horse Sunday than the entire day of racing Saturday. 10 years ago I would have melted my limited bankroll on Saturday betting every race which would have cut my Sunday profit to X.
Race 1 will start the day off with a short price favorite trying something new for the first time which is always a bit hard to trust.
A LINE – Strategy in the pick 5.. The 2 is going to offer zero value! I suggest either single, do not use or go directly to the Pick 4 starting in Race 2. The issue for me is once I get past the favorite I can make a case for nearly everyone else.
2 Triumphant Road has turf races that lay over this field and took a huge drop in class last time making his first start for Saffie. I just have a hard time taking the Saffie/Irad price while trying the tapeta for the first time but on the other hand there are plenty of spot on the grass Saffie could have entered this 6 year old maiden but chose the tapeta.
B LINE I will keep this brief on most runners as nothing hidden here.
3 Irish Wish will try a route on the tapeta for the first time. Irad gave this gelding a rare bad ride last time after this one showed decent speed then Irad rated took hold rating him completely out of the race. Irad moved to the favorite which is not a good sign but regardless not seen enough of this one.
4 Smooth an Easy has been facing tougher and his two tapeta routes since adding the blinkers fit with the rest.
7 Titan is the best of the speed with an outside post.
None of the others would shock me here as well.
Race 2
A LINE Nothing super clever here
3 Down in the Bayou cut back to a sprint where she has found her best efforts while taking a 50% tag drop.
5 Taking It All is interesting if can get back to her races form last spring. I have no excuse for her in the race she was claimed out of in May, but after being claimed she ran twice without Lasix, then routed, then went to the dirt. This will be the first tapeta sprint for this barn with Lasix.
7 Vanishing Wish broke her maiden then moved up in class from a price standpoint versus winners. Now back down to where she should have ran last time with an outside post. In my opinion she is the horse to beat.
Race 3
Lone A – 2 Air Combat absolutely daylighted the field last time out and if he repeats that effort game over. This is versus tougher and if you are a “bounce” believer then maybe this one is not for you. I personally am not if a horse “bounces” I think there are reasons other than just the word bounce.
B – 4 Pay Zone has a post advantage over Air Combat and definitely can wire this group if Air Combat cannot repeat.
Race 4
A LINE
1 Pretty Liza is another Irad piloted favorite trying something the new for the first time. At least with this runner I could watch the work over the tapeta on Jan 12th which was solid the entire way.
3 Meet Me in the Air I will have on tickets sporting the best tapeta races of the group.
B LINE
4 R Wins Aren’t Lucky has been on the work tab for a long while and I am hesitant to leave off with such a great name that may or may not be directed at someone…… Nothing negative in the works I seen but Saffie debuting for a tag has me a bit hesitant.
Others 5 & 7
Race 5 as many could come down to trip with the best of this group drawn outside and my top pick drawn the furthest outside.
Lone A – 12 Breakwater is a dangerous single being drawn so poorly and will be a matter if Dylan can workout a way to save some ground. The Dec 20th effort behind Rotterdam if clearly the best race any of these have produced in a long while.
