Any Stats or percentages are based on specific Scenario in the last 5 years unless stated otherwise. Example – 1st Time Starter / Sprint / Dirt / MSW. TYPO Disclaimer I keep finding my self using abbreviations that I use in my Formulator Trips notes out of habit and some I fail to fix on proof reading.
It might be even worse today with so much racing this weekend, tick tick tick. I will strive to do better starting next week on grammar and typos.
Another odd week with no MSW’s until today and loaded with 3 deep races.
Race 4 – 3 Year Olds Going 1 1/6th TURF
1 (B) Ghost Coast gets to the turf here after debut was moved to the Tapeta. Took no money that day although ran fairly well got in some traffic late and never got a clear lane to run in. Walsh is only 7% Winners 2ndSt/Turf/Rte/MSW. But this one overperformed in debut and will be a huge price here.
2 (C) One Fast Dream makes his 3rd start here, Casse has good numbers with this scenario at 18%. Has speed, gets back to the grass and could trip out. Old work notes have this one as a poor work horse.
3 (C) Jeby has not ran since Dec 10th although was entered on Jan 21st but vet scratched? Dec 10th race, ran well 3/4W most of the way and finished well shortening a bit late. Gets Lasix for the 1st time today. Reasons to move forward. Barn is 3 for 12 with this move in last 5 years and 50% in the money.
4 Operation Torch I would need to see something big in workout report to use a first timer for this barn.
5 Exude debuts for Mott does get main jock on board here. But I will wait for next time as the barn is 9% with many opportunities in the last 5 years.
6 Covet – SEE #5 Exude
7 Equal Protection for Chad has not showed much on the dirt in two tries and now will be trying the turf for the first time. Chad is 30% 3rdSt/Turf/Rte/MSW add in first time turf and 2 for 6 over last 5 years. Would not shock me but more than likely will take my chances of getting beat by this one.
8 (A) Mutaawid I really liked going into the last, then the race was moved the Tapeta and it become a toss up. The Jan. 7th Race he was slow away and had to be encouraged early to keep pace, was well back off the turn and came rolling shifting lanes only to lose his path late which I believe cost him the win that day. Then on the tapeta again was slow to start and under ride early just unable to reproduce the same late run on the tapeta. Getting back to the turf I expect this one to be running late again. Unfortunately this race looks to be a tougher spot than his last two. Saez goes to the other Pletcher horse but gets Jose in his place. I will not leave this one off my ticket but fear could be trip compromised.
9 (B) Scramble will make his 2nd start off bit of a break. Has ran well in all 4 starts running and twice being beat by next out stakes winner in General Jim and Ari Gold. All 4 races have I have seen the same thing late same pace grinding away in stretch and gallops out well. I have been beaten by this type several times but I am a slow learner sometimes. May have on some tickets pending ticket structure. But I have no problem letting him beat me. If on the lead or pressing at the 1/4 pole, I might be in trouble.
10 Carlin Clan could be on the lead here with a soft pace, but nothing previously gives me the feeling he can finish the job.
11 (A) Expect More for Pletcher was Disqualified in the Dec 31st race over the dirt when favored and then failed as the favorite in his last. OLDWORKOUT NOTES – Every workout I have notes for is B / B+ stuff working heads up with Tapit Trice and other nice barn mates. Irad has worked him several times and rode him in all 3 starts, but opts for the Brown runner here. Must use with the talent this one has showed and now trying something new.
12 (A) Ganado I assume will be the deserving favorite here for Brown, Irad takes the mount and had a nice debut with traffic issues once got clear was splitting horses and gaining quickly but the winner dug in and finished well. Went right by in the gallop.
AE 13 Lyte Crude steps back into MSW company here and adds blinkers. If gets in adds some definite pace to the race.
AE 14 (B) Cumberland if this one draws in I will have some coverage. Ran well in the debut sprint race just getting a bit of an education, then galloped out strong pulling Rosario along for the ride.
Nothing to creative here, I do believe this race has a a lot of depth to it, so I will be conservative with my money here and just look to get by in multi race tickets.
Top Pick – 12 Ganado The post is not ideal and do not think will see 6-1. Alternate – 8 Mutaawid
Race 6 – Fillies 4 and UP going 5F on Turf
1 (A) Queen of Light is interesting shipping over from Tampa and brings Centeno with her. Ran well in debut unhurried 3W, let out mid turn responded well, off turn 3/4 wide big stride slow steady gain entire stretch up in time for 3rd, She was no match for 1-2 finishers. But should move up with the experience and the barn shipped over here to chase big purse money. Only concern is post she will need to get through some stopping traffic and out finish Feline.
2 Gamblers Orb makes her second start off off big layoff. Technically she has ran on the turf before, but that was KY DOWNS… Some workout report info would be of a big help here.
3 Plaisante makes her third start for Clement who is 27% with 3rdSt/Turf/Spt/MSW in last 5 years. Nice debut when ran out of gas late after setting a hot pace at Tampa. Myself and everyone else expected her to move forward off the debut when she was heavily bet, got a bit softer lead and had nothing in the tank when asked. If she beats me I am good with that TOSS
4 (A) Feline’s was a score in her last when I had her keyed under Little Jewel at a price. She had some camouflage on form with all those MOC showing on her page when she actually had not been in for a tag since her debut. She was 3 wide nearly the entire race, finished strong and clear 2nd behind Little Jewel. She can sit off these and hopefully get a clean trip.
5 She’s Stormy for Jerkins adds blinkers today and maybe that will make her finish a bit better. Her return race in Jan she ran well then was expected to run better in her last but once headed she pretty much stopped. If she can repeat the two back race she is a player but several will be fighting for the top spot early on here.
6 (C) Cindylouwho makes her second start off the bench after running well here over the dirt last year and then put in a good effort at KY Downs. She has some speed but do not think she can get the lead but if returns to form could pick up the pieces.
7 (B) Mrs Whistler’s two Turf Sprints were her best two efforts. Paco rides back after sitting off the pace in her last when she came running late behind Feline while lugging in and slow on lead change. I have to believe the barn worked on that in the last few weeks, if that issue is corrected could be right with Feline late.
8 (B) Run for the Hills has not been seen in a year. Now will try the turf for the first time today, she has speed and gets outside post. REALLY OLD WORKOUT NOTE — 8-8-2021 – Outworked Cool Laoban and was referred to a promising and talented. Gets outside post and barn goes to Tyler.
Nearly all Turf Sprints look like they are loaded with Speed but this one has several that appear to have plenty of speed and need the lead. Can justify hitting the all button , but I will try to narrow depending on ticket construction.
Top Pick – 4 – Feline Alternate 1 – Queen of Light
Race 9 – Fillies 4 and UP – 1 3/16th on Tapeta – Tricky Distance
1 Sinfiltre will try to get a mile and 3/16th which looks to be a tough task for her. Her best race was two back on the Tapeta, went to her knees out of the gate then stalked the pace putting a nose in front at one point staying on same pace to wire. Average gallop out. Jose stays aboard but hard for me to back this one.
2 (C) Friendship Road is a half to Olympiad that has yet to live up to expectations. Will try the tapeta for the first time today in hopes to move forward from previous. Does show a big work on the Tapeta on Feb 6th but of course without seeing that work we have no clue how she did it….
3 (A) Red Hot and Blue has burned a whole lot money in 10 starts. Running well in many previous going long on the grass, but I cannot find a single excuse in any of those efforts. She would have been a complete toss if was not for her last race that was moved to the tapeta. I think the new surface she moved forward, she stayed on well entire stretch with good energy and there is a lot of question marks with this group.
4 (C) Never Been Wrong was claimed out her debut for 20K where she ran very well 3 to 4 Wide entire race while making steady progress the entire stretch run. Gallop out was only average. New Barn steps her back into special weight company. Claiming a horse out of a debut always has me puzzled. I have picked out several we have claimed over the years, and I cannot wrap my brain around claiming one out of a debut. So assuming she works well in the morning and had a little backside chatter..
5 (B) Cappy has plenty of experience and will now run for a new barn after they took for 20K in her last. Blinkers come off and Irad sticks around. She has proved the distance is no problem and now will try the Tapeta here at GP, she ran well at Woodbine but no two surfaces are the same.
6 Ballroom Eyes scratched out of race this past Wed going 5 on the Tapeta to go here versus tougher.
7 Arroblue will try the Tapeta for the first time today while adding blinkers. She ran well at KD in Sept. which led to her taking money at Keeneland but had no excuse that day making an early move and was completely flat in the stretch. Changed barns and ran here in Jan. Unhurried early and in stretch just ran home the same pace with room to move forward showing nothing. Tapeta would need to move this one up a whole lot to contend.
8 Mystical Journey has showed nothing in 3 starts while taking money in each. Would have to see something tremendous in a workout report to consider this one.
Dangerous race to have a lone A with so many trying something new or in new barns… But….
Top Pick – 3 – Red Hot and Blue Alternate – 5 – Cappy
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