If you read any of my stuff then you already know I do not sugar coat anything so will not start here. TOUGH SEQUENCE which it is expected being a scheduled mandatory payout.
The last 2 weeks I have had 2 different carryover misses due to leaving 2 horses out of legs where I spread then nailing the rest of sequences which resulted in a 33K bankroll swing left sitting on the table. I have yet to get this out of my head so hoping to get lucky today and erase that from my memory.
One thing I despise on twitter is people throwing out picks with NO explanation but there may be a bit of that in today’s blog because I did not plan to look at this sequence or writing it up so will be a bit brief in spots.
Once scratches come out, I will do my best to proof read and update. (SCRATCHES DID NOT CHANGE ANYTHING)
Race 6 has a good chance to be the start and end of my ticket.
A – 9 Just a Photo will likely go off favored here. He came back in early March as a new gelding to win convincingly on the tapeta and last time Helen Keller could see this trip. He sit off the pace on the rail moved up in hand and never had a lane to run in the entire stretch. He looked loaded but never really asked at any point, I do have a slight hesitation of how much horse Paco had under him that day.
B – 1 Nate the Great is tactical and will get an inside trip but will need to improve 2nd off the bench.
B – 8 Otago is 1 for 1 with Lasix when he won a State bred stakes at Tampa last year waiting behind horses getting room late beating a nice group of 3 year old’s.
Race 7 I will have at least 1 ticket with by lone B horse as a single but will press Fly the W more times.
A – 6 Fly the W will be a popular single today and should be. I have said it before I love this horse! He is what the claiming game is all about. He comes in on a bit of a losing streak but gets a softer group today.
B – 2 Tiz Romantic has routed on the tapeta only 4 times versus some tough company and will be sent to the lead here. He nearly hung on back on Dec 9th with Fly the W got up late.
Race 8 I will be using my 4 A’s equally.
A – 1 He’spuregold comes in off an extended break as he is done in the past. Classy NJ bred gets some class relief in his return and Lasix back today.
A – 3 Burnin Turf could trip out here saving ground and getting first run on what could be a hot pace.
A – 6 J P Hellish is super consistent and tactical. Looks to be a must use today.
A – 11 Stat drew wide today which is a real bummer, if had a better post I might look to try to nail this sequence with him for a large increment. Zayas will have to be on the throttle early to clear this group which drastically hurts his chance.
Others if spreading
8 Determindly comes back a new gelding for Casse and has not ran on the turf since 2022.
7 Like the King is a horse I like but will not be using with Landeros in the irons who is now 0 for 49 while getting some good mounts, eventually his luck will change but I will keep avoiding him.
Race 9 on paper looks to be full of pace which in my opinion makes it a bit volatile.
A – 1 Libban for Saffie/Zayas drops out of stakes company and gets lasix back today. She is 3 for 4 with lasix with the lone loss being the debut although draws the rail in a race full of speed is a big negative.
A – 2 Beth’s Dream is 5 for 6 going 8 furlongs and loves the track here at Gulfstream. She ran big race coming off an extended layoff last time but had an outside post in a small field and this spot looks like a tougher task.
Race 10 is an absolute knife fight that will come down to trip.
A – 3 Yes I am Free took a rare trip out state last trying the Shakertown and he saw Arzak for a split second when he went by him. Now back to reality with an inside draw which will be the key, if he breaks on top good luck to the competition.
A – 8 Smithwick’s Spice is quietly 4 for 4 going 5 furlongs on the turf and hard to ignore the Feb. race at Tampa when he surprised me.
A – 10 Kanthari likely will be post compromised in this spot but is capable.
A – 11 XY Speed was the key horse in a huge tri we hit back on March 1st and continued on the improve to get a win last out. Although was an absolute perfect trip when you could have drove a semi truck through the opening on the rail.
A – 12 Souper Quest is another that post will likely compromise his chances but makes his first start of the year for Casse. All 5 previous start were solid but apparently Casse did not feel he was doing well enough to ship to Keeneland……
Others
1 Mamba on Three will be looking to trip out on the rail which if some crazy reason Yes I am Free falters he would be in the cat bird seat.
8 Smithwick’s Spice is quietly 4 for 4 going 5 furlongs on the turf.
Race 11 will close it out with the toughest race on the card! Full of troubled trips, lightly raced horses, and horses trying new things.
A – 2 Hangin in There’s two races here at Gulfstream were solid while being drawn outside, not gets to save some ground and we will see if he is good enough.
A – 3 Pet Mat will not be 12-1 today. Jan. 20th was a failed blinkers experiment where he was extremely rank and difficult to ride. Feb 10th Blinkers came back off moved up easily at the rail waited waited waited, tried to get outside of horses lost lane and it got worse from that point on…..
A – 5 It’s Bourbon Thirty went off at 50-1 on debut showed good speed and had some traffic issues waited in the stretch shifting off the rail late just missed 2nd while never getting a chance to run until the last strides.
A – 9 Typhoon Fury is yet another trip horse. Jan 13th stuck wide / boxed in waited/ finished well. Feb 24th chased gate to wire winner SET. March 30th is similar to those above waited in traffic , Checked , waited, jock wrapped up cruised home.
Next Group for me would be 4, 6, 10
Then Everyone else………..
