All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
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I will be covering the Early Pick 5 in detail, and quick thoughts on rest of card.
You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
After some twitter messages that are appreciated, I decided to try something a bit different today. Less Details covering more races but will still try to get as much information to you as I can on some of the maiden races.
Post scratch update might be late as I am attending my daughters archery shoot this morning hopefully back home before first post.
Important to watch for Jockey changes Saturday with a handful of the colony not named on horses as they were scheduled to ride at Oaklawn on the Southwest card. BUT that card got moved till Sunday so it’s possible there will be several jockey changes today.
Early Pick 5
R1 – 1 8 B – 2 4 9 C – ALL
R2 – 4 5 7 8
R3 – 6 B – 8 C – 3 5
R4 – 5 8 9
R5 – 9 B – 1 2 6 10
Race 1 is a maiden $12,500 on the dirt and I find myself in a familiar spot wanting to pick 1 or use them all. Not getting into great detail here with nothing clever.
A Line
1 Smooth an Easy should be plenty fit and who doesn’t want a 0 for 17 maiden on their tickets.
8 Head Lad is the obvious horse in here after adding blinkers last time ran his best race to date.
B – 2 4 9
C – Everyone else
Race 2 will have a heavy favorite that is hard to knock but I think there are some sneaky horses in here.
A LINE
4 Cat Eyes will take a ton of money in here and deservingly after being much best last time. Had a near perf trip but was visually impressive winning while going away full of run.
5 Swoonatra 15-1 for me on top coming out of races filled with much tougher company. Has plenty of speed and gets a slight cut back in distance.
7 Tutta La Vita ran a big race on Dec. 28th which is the race declared no contest.
8 Lady Cha Cha is a must use after making a nice effort for Saffie last time waiting inside and making a big run splitting horses late. I am assuming that race shows up on everyone’s PP’s.
NEW – Pick 5 starts here in Race 3 and if I heard correctly will be retail only!!!
Race 3 I am likely getting to bullish on this runner making her a lone A by a narrow Margin.
LONE A – 6 Jokes Up will need to work out a trip lacking early speed but she has faced tougher than most of these. She is popular in the claim box which coming from a claiming racing background is always a positive to me. Just missed second last time going 5 furlongs and two back had a troubled trip when she went off favored.
B – 8 Fotuna Belle would be the next in line for me. Looked a bit short last time coming off the long layoff and has handled the 5.5 furlongs in the past no problem.
C LINE
3 Gunesh is recent class dropped but will need to run much better than her last.
5 Demar’s Legacy ran well last time versus lessor. Will need more today.
Race 4 has some trips, big layoffs and several trying something for the first time.
A LINE
4 Let It Ride has faced plenty of classy horses but comes with question marks. Trying the tapeta for the first time while making his first start since falling in July at Saratoga and now drops in class. What got my attention is Castellano got off the 8 Moon Landing to ride this one.
5 Jolly Boss makes his second start in Saffie’s care after showing natural speed last time running on one paced finishing well. Is a must use for me although did miss some time after the last.
8 Moon Landing stumbled badly last time which put him far back last. Made a big run in the center of the track just missed being second at the wire.
9 La Belleza Negra comes out of the same race as Moon Landing and also had a trip. Turned for home behind a wall of horses and was making up ground while hand ridden shifting lanes, once clear changed gears finishing well.
Others have reasons to win.
1 Protege tries the tapeta for the first time and has plenty of nice dirt races on his resume.
2 Rolling On has plenty of tapeta races that beat this field but off form as of late.
3 Jam Session will need to improve off the barn change.
6 Banded Rockett tries the tapeta for the first time and Kathleen O’Connell knows her stock so tapeta will be no issue.
7 King Julien is quick but has struggled getting the extra 1/2 furlong.
Race 5 I am on the most likely winner with reasons to be against several that appear interesting.
LONE A – 9 Pivotal Moment had some nice gate works this past summer prior to debut then got away awkwardly, rushed up the rail only to get boxed in and once clear finished well. Clement is 29% with 2ndSt/Turf/SPT/MSW’s. If cut that down to only Gulfstream 45%
B LINE
1 American Direction made his debut sprinting here at Gulfstream getting out of the gate last, angled to the rail then angled out 5 wide but was lugging in on his left lead while still closing the gap. If tipped out and changed leads he wins on debut at 86-1!
2 Proudly Hailed is the other to make an A based off unknown. No work information anywhere. Cox 26% in this spot
6 War Legend ran decent on debut at Woodbine but has not been seen since. Casse is 20% in this spot but shockingly in the last 5 years with second time starters / turf / sprinting / MSW @ GULFSTREAM o for 17 !
10 Commendatore has an outside post and speed while trying the turf for the first time. 700K price tag and is the first foal out of an 0 for 3 mare? Sale work must have been something…
C LINE
3 Ripton’s Music would need to take a big step forward getting on the turf. I don’t see it but worth mentioning as he has plenty of speed.
4 Math Tutor is a bit interesting trying the turf for the first time. This colt showed lots of talent in the summer at Saratoga but is now 0 for 6 and connections are looking for an answer. In the end he is likely to be outpaced and not quick enough as he does not look like a turf sprinter.
Race 6 I am a chalk eating weasel.
A – 4 Amazin Queen will make her first start on tapeta while in D’Angelo’s barn and drops to her lowest class level since breaking the maiden. Routing over the tapeta at Gulfstream she is 3 for 8 with not a bad outing in the lot and a repeat of her race 1 year ago crushes this field.
Race 7
A LINE – 6 7
4 Nakatomi makes his 6 year old debut and there is no doubt the class of the field. BUT!! has never ran over the Gulfstream dirt which we seen a couple heavy favorites get beat last weekend over this dirt course. Is the horse to beat.
6 Concrete Glory only has one question that needs to be answered. Is Lasix needed ? The past 2 years I have wondered why this gelding has not tried stakes company. 10 for 16 at Gulfstream Park and 7 for 17 going 3/4’s.
7 Comedy Town should sit outside trip and get first run on Concrete Glory if the lasix off is indeed an issue while getting the jump on Nakatomi.
B – 2 Gordian Knot swaps to Pletcher so is a bit unknown and one to consider including.
Also wanted to mention 5 Super Chow who has plenty of races on his resume that fit, but his last couple races have lacked any late finish and has worked a few times on the grass while being entered also at Tampa Saturday in a turf sprint.
Race 8 fits the 5 furlong sprint profile with plenty of speed. I will use a few here while giving a slight edge to 5 Test Factor who can press the leaders but does not necessarily have to be on the lead.
A – 2 5
B – 3 9
Race 9 is for maidens 3 year old going 9 furlongs which we don’t see often. I will look to use any I think can get the distance in decent fashion but if you forced me to pick that just 1! 3 Majorca comes out of a fast race at Tampa when nailed at wire by Statesman who has been touted all summer long.
A – 2 3 9
B – 6 8
Race 10 I want to use several in Multi’s but a horse I almost feel obligated to bet in here at a massive price is the 4 Starship Boeing. I liked her the first week of the year when she a scratch here at Gulfstream but did turn around and catch her at Tampa last time at 6-1. She may get run off her feet in here but at a huge number I will take a shot.
A – 2 3 4 8 10
B – 1 6
Race 11 – No strong opinion here as several will be doing something for the first time, but my top pick 7 Frosted Over is the only horse in the race that has went 9 furlongs on a synthetic surface and 2 for 3 doing so.
A – 1 7
B – 2 3 4 8
Race 12 Could have some pre-race movement that would greatly effect my opinion. Walsh has two entered and the AE 11 Dublin’s Knight is my top selection, also Zayas is named on both the 10 and 11. So does Walsh scratch the 2 Timayyy and if that happens does Zayas move to the 11.
Big change with the scratch of Dublin’s Knight, Walsh could have scratched the 2 to get the 11 in but chose not to….. 2 Moves way up even though I did not particular like the works I saw.
A – 2 6
B – 1 4 10
