All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
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I will be covering the Early Pick 5 in detail, and quick thoughts on rest of card.
You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
Friday’s early Pick 5 I actually liked a bit even with the 3 maiden claimers in the sequence, built some tickets that I felt good about and then……… Race 1 52-1 punches me right in the mouth…. so ran it back with the pick 4 to profit a whole nine bucks.
Early Pick 5 today does not makes sense in the Math department without cutting horses so unless I get that last minute WTH feeling I likely will sit out. One option is to look at the early doubles that may or may not provide some help in Race 2, but that is not the type of race that we normally look to the pools for so I reluctantly picked them apart.
R1 – 5 9 10
R2 – A- 4 8 B – 2 C – 3 6
R3 – 3 6 7 9 12
R4 – 3 8 9
R5 – 1 5
PICK 6 SCROLL DOWN Will be up by Noon CST
Race 1
A LINE I am using these three equally with no clear separator.
5 Line Astray has ran well in all three efforts routing over this tapeta course with one win. Last time got a great trip and had the jump on Blaze of Color just holding that one off late for second.
9 Blaze of Color has had consistent efforts with a bit of trip on the Nov 16th effort. He is a one pace grinder type but not confident he can overcome Paco flopping around like a fish out of water the entire race.
10 Guildenstern only has the one maintenance work Feb 6th since being claimed out his comeback race last time. The Sept 29th race was solid and was a couple lengths better than finished that day with some traffic trouble.
Others – 6 and 8 both have efforts early last year that fit in this spot but both are coming off races they never ran a step in.
Race 2 I thought was the most difficult race of the sequence and will spare you the details as I had nothing clever while spending way to much time on this race only to have the same answer.
A LINE – 2 3 4 6 8 If you made me pick one! I would take the veteran of the group 4 Heals the Soul who is consistent no matter what barn he goes out for.
Ultimately I split hairs here to make a playable Pick 5 ticket which is something I do not recommend as there are plenty of spots to attack without cutting horses.
Race 3 has some AE’s that would completely change things and will update accordingly post scratches.
A LINE I have the obvious with nothing clever.
3 My Anticipation is one of two Clement runners in here and both are making their second start. Clement is 29% in this spot over the last 5 years while being 4 for 8 at Gulfstream with second time starters turf sprinting in MSW’s.
6 Elite Heat ran very well at Fairgrounds on debut being caught late in the long stretch. My Racehorse owned so will be a short price no matter expectations.
7 Miso Spicy bled on debut at Keeneland after showing solid speed and not asked until they turned for home. The classic speed and fade, but now gets Lasix which I expect to solve that issue. Solid string of turf works since getting to South Florida and appears ready to fire.
9 American Surfer is the second of the Clement entries and I think will be the shorter price of the pair. Irad rode on debut when she was a bit rank down inside backing out then ran on well inside of horses once Irad regrouped. Add all that together and deserves to be the favorite but to be honest for someone that does not like blaming jockeys I have had enough of Rosario.
12 Dancing On Our Own has not been overly flashy in the mornings but nothing negative. Weaver is 24% debuting in Turf Sprint MSW over the last 5 years.
B LINE if spreading would be including several
1 4 5 8
5 I Never Lie at a big price is a interesting. Like my top pick also showed signs of needing lasix breaking sharp then fading quickly but the main reason to mention is a work from Jan 29th. This filly was running away from her mate and jockey grabbed her slamming on the brakes trying to wait on mate, then ran away from mate in hand. 46.4 work it shows was much faster…. this may be the one I include in the A line hoping for a big upset.
Race 4
A LINE is the obvious contenders for me.
3 Pitkin I had mentioned this one on debut and he did not disappoint with a monster effort going seven furlongs. When debut runners for Wilkes run like that expect big things and he has a handful of nice 3 year old’s this year. The last 5 years with second time starts dirt routing in MSW’s 0 for 26!!!! but as long Pitkin does not find out it will be fine.
8 A.P. Kid for Pletcher who is 19% the last 5 years in this spot and that jumps to 24% when at Gulfstream. Works are solid and looks to be the typical Honor A.P. big long smooth stride… If you visit Lane’s End make sure you get a look at him He could be the picture in the dictionary under Race Horse…
9 Gosger I am borderline moving to B Line after running well on debut behind a nice horse was entered on Jan 11th only to be a vet scratch. Nothing negative on clocker report and Walsh is 25% in this spot the last 5 years.
Others
4 Capital Hill and 6 Summit Ridge there is ZERO workout info on either runner. Clocker Report / Videos / found nothing…..
Race 5 I am only using two but I thought the field was evenly matched and could simply come down to trip.
A LINE
1 David’s Rose has been solid as they come over the last few years here at Gulfstream and she gets to go what I believe is her best distance today with an inside post.
5 Heir to the Roar like David’s Rose has plenty of experience and will not have to deal with Mywifeknowsitall today.
Race 6 – A LINE – 5 7 11
MANDATORY PAYOUT I like my strategy but I do think several tickets will be similar unfortunately as it is too obvious. I am throwing a couple hundred at this one.
R7 – 2 8 9 11 B – 1 5 6 7
R8 – 1 3 4 8 9 10
R9 – 4
R10 – 1 2 3 4 8 10 11
R11 – 8
R12 – 1 2 6 7 11 B – 3
Race 7 – I am all over the place here with 2 Kosher Capone as my top pick.
A – 2 8 9 11
B – 1 5 6 7
Race 8 does not get much easier
A LINE
1 War Beat ran a huge race last time versus N3L’s and could trip out in this spot.
8 Swan Lake where have you gone? If I could get the Swan Lake from this fall then I would take a swing now I could make a case to toss him.
9 Speight’spercomete has improved since moving to the Breen barn consistent runner.
10 Nevers of Steel’s last race buries this group and this group is nothing close to those.
B LINE – 3 4
Race 9 – A – Knightsbridge has showed plenty of talent in his three starts but obviously has some issues with some large gaps between starts. I will single here due to difficulty of other races in the sequence but not nearly as confident as I am in Race 11.
B – 6 Uno Mas Bourbon is getting some big class relief for a hot barn and would be my next in line to use.
Race 10
A LINE
1 Gilded Edge faces winner for the first time but has showed plenty of talent.
2 Princess Bettina is a bit dirtied up on paper. Last time had a perfect trip until they turned for home but then never got much room at the rail and Dec 20th got hung wide never having a chance jock just sit up.
3 Starship Agenda has faced tons of class nearly every time she has loaded in the gate.
4 Candy Gray has reasons to improve off her last effort.
8 Nineteenamendment’s Nov 30th race was a big effort finishing full of run through the wire and is a must use for myself.
10 Bedazzle ‘Em has yet to translate her mornings to the afternoon races. She was working last year with Waskesiu and has been keeping strong company this winter as well.
11 Eastern Empress nothing hidden but not leaving off my ticket.
Race 11 – A – 8 Grand Job is one of many that have popped up in my stable alerts today. This filly was super impressive in both U.S. starts while widening and geared down on both occasions. Without going into details the way my figures are made it is rare that I have a dirt figure nearly 10 points above the beyer but that is the case on Dec 1st Race.
Race 12
A LINE – 1 2 6 7 11 I am just using A’s on my ticket and will have a WIN BET here as well on 6 Back in the Saddle.
B – 3
