Any Stats or percentages are based on specific Scenario in the last 5 years unless stated otherwise. Example – 1st Time Starter / Sprint / Dirt / MSW. TYPO Disclaimer I keep finding my self using abbreviations that I use in my Formulator Trip notes out of habit and some I fail to fix on proof reading.
Another Saturday where a lot of the jockey colony is over at Tampa so we lose a bit of signal.
Race 5 – 3 Year old 1 1/16th on Dirt
1 (B) Monegasque is a bet interesting debut stayed on rail and stayed on same pace getting a education. Was working well before his debut and looks to have improved March 4th worked with Blinkers galloped out thru turn on loose rein showing good fitness. Delgado is 4 for 9 in the last 5 years 2ndSt/Dirt/Rte/MSW. Has nothing for the favorite today but definitely one to include underneath.
2 (B) Bourbon Resolve will be clear second choice after running very well on Pegasus day behind Mage. Has always been a decent work horse for a barn who does not push on one early. Would need major improvement to beat the favorite. I believe most likely to run second here.
3 Weyhill Road has all the paper positives. He is a 1/2 to Midnight Bourbon , Girvin, Pirates Punch. Had been working very well before the Jan 14th race keeping good company. But he had no excuse in a slow race.
4 Infinite Series had a solid debut going 3/4’s staying on same pace in the stretch and galloped out well. He gets Lasix today, Saffie is 33% in this scenario. Negative just not coming back after debuting in Dec. and the March 3rd Work with Prairie Hawk was poor effort. He was urged to finished the work then under the whip to gallop out falling back of Prairie Hawk.
5 Cyber Ninja With no workout information on either of the Mott runners other than watching the tote for a signal, I have nothing other than stats which are not good. Mott is 4% here….
6 Empirestrikesfast See Above
7 (A) Dreamlike will be a heavy favorite here and deservingly so. Debut he stalked a fast pace fell back 3L off turn, figured it out late being 1B at wire, Galloped out nicely. Since Debut 2-25-23 worked with Tapit Trice he had to work a bit to stay with him, but galloped out past wire thru the turn and down backside nicely with TT, then again on 3-4 he worked with Tapit Trice and looked a touch better.
Top Pick – 7 Dreamlike who will be a very short price here. Will be looking a probable exacta payouts here and will be considering a weighted Exacta 7 over 1 and 2.
Race 7 – 3 Year Old Fillies going 7 1/2 on Turf – Spread Race with many first time starters and several AE’s. I did not go to in depth on the AE’s as a bit rushed this morning to finish this up.
1 (C) Violet Gibson has some decent Turf works for a barn that 8% the last 5 years with 1stStart/Turf/Rte/MSW
2 (C) California Way is one of two first time starters for Pletcher here. California Way(Jose) worked with Amalfi Spritz(Irad) hard to separate them, but with Irad over at Tampa Jose opts to the 12 Amalfi Spirit that is enough for me to give the edge to the 12 although she will be in a wide post here. Pletcher is 9% in this spot.
3 (A) Typey had everything her way on Jan 8th and almost got the job done when I thought she was finished at the 1/8 pole. Feb 5th effort she was helped when race was moved to the Tapeta. I do not particularly love this filly but she has surprised me late in her races and lands in a suspect group. Will be a A play but more defensively in multi-race tickets.
4 (C) Just On Time I would like to have on tickets. First start of Jerkens , 1st Time on Turf , 1st Route , 1st Lasix….. I really liked the Jan 20th work on the grass when she was under a hold most of the way and tugging along a bit on the gallop out then the Feb 9th work looked to take a step backwards.
5 Rosy Tomorrows for a barn who is 10% in this spot, filly worked at Keeneland then shipped to New York now she is in Florida and just not making her debut. Might include based on unknown but I am ok tossing this one out.
6 (B) Le Beau had an uneventful debut just running around track on the rail in a race that came off the turf. Clement is 14% here and she got a little attention in her debut. Unfortunately I have no workout information to go on.
7 Why Waste Words
8 Volta d’Oro showed nothing in 2 Dirt Starts and will give the Turf a try for a barn who is 0 for 23 in this spot. Workout report shows nothing to get anyone excited, although I thought the Dec 4th work before debut did look much better then she ran in 2 tries.
9 (C) Kake’s Tap Dancer made 3 starts as a 2 year old none of which were that impressive, but she does have an experience edge. Her best race coming on a course listed as soft at Delaware has decent works if she breaks well could be in the mix.
10 (A) La Goulu I liked going into her last before it was moved to the Tapeta. Nice Debut last year at AQ and was outworking some nice older horses coming into her last. Looks to still be training well.
11 (B) Charleston Way for Saffie who is only 8% in this spot is interesting. Solid work tab worked average at best. Really wish we could see the March 3rd Turf work. WORK on Feb 18th I did watch and most definitely looked like she belonged on the grass.
12 (B) Amalfi Spritz is one of two first time starters for Pletcher here. California Way(Jose) worked with Amalfi Spritz(Irad) hard to separate them, but with Irad over at Tampa Jose opts here. Pletcher is 9% in this spot.
13 Lakeside Getaway (C)
14 (C) Party Time showed little on debut for a barn that is 17% in this spot. If she draws in will be a in a tough spot.
15 (A) Milieu will need a lot of help to get into this one, but if she does pay attention to jockey changes. If gets in should be the favorite but in a tough post. Will have an experience edge and ran behind a talented runner in her last.
16 (C) Fancy
Top Pick 10 La Goulu in a Tough Race that I recommend having as much coverage as possible but if you need to narrow hopefully something above or scratches might help you do so.