Any Stats or percentages are based on specific Scenario in the last 5 years unless stated otherwise. Example – 1st Time Starter / Sprint / Dirt / MSW. TYPO Disclaimer I keep finding my self using abbreviations that I use in my Formulator Trip notes out of habit and some I fail to fix on proof reading.
Another big Saturday in racing at other tracks which leads to lots of jocks from the colony not riding today at Gulfstream. Jose and Javier have both had big days this meet with others out of town. After a week off from racing either today’s card is not very good or my glasses are a bit dirty. Did not find a play in the entire card to have any confidence in without some scratch help. Neither of the MSW’s had anything interesting from a wager standpoint.
Race 5 – 5.5 on the Dirt
1 (B) Startonahighnote for Saffie who is 16% here. Working well and looked good in the XBTV Works that can be viewed. Not Zayas here to ride and draws the rail so on the fence about this one.
2 (A) Case for Thomas has carried a bit of hype since went into training, Debut looked very well running step for step with Shesterkin until late. Tried going 1 Mile and proved to be bit too far when tiring late but ran well early I was on him that day. Concern is that the 5.5 maybe too sharp and the barn was experimenting a bit by giving him a turf work where he looked very good but decided on the dirt once more.
3 (A) Etnico is another that was working really well coming into his debut back in December held his on with Lightning Larry and has still been sharp in the mornings. Showed plenty of speed to be effective at 5.5 and Javier stays here. Well narrowly make this one my top selection.
5 Bad Boy Frank
6 Bernardo’s Legacy
8 (A) Last Shift did not take any money on debut but ran much better than the paper suggests. Hit the gate and was bumped hard out of the gate and was 4/5 Lengths back off the troubled start. Moved out 4/5 Wide and quickly caught back up moving in hand, was 4 wide through the turn to be even for lead late/off turn, then stayed on same pace drifting about loosing ground. Could be price.
Looking just to get through in multi race wagers here. Top Selection 3 Etnico but also will be paying attention to the price on 8 Last shift. Pending Probable Payouts Exacta – 3 over 2 / 8 and reverse that 2/8 over 3…..
Race 11 – Going 1 1/16th on the Tapeta – This is a bit aggravating as the Tapeta has turned into more than an off track scenario. Now we have a situation where the horses with the best races under their belt were on the turf which leads to a difficult spread race in my opinion. I will try to narrow them down a bit but to be honest it is hard to have any confidence other than the ALL button.
1 Lanigan ran two decent races at Woodbine and gets Lasix today, Experience and Lasix alone in this group is enough reason to consider.
2 (B) My Favorite Topic has ran for a tag in all 3 previous starts hitting the board in each. Now runs first off a claim for a barn that has success with this move in a limited number of opportunities. Now tries the Tapeta while showing a sharp work on paper over the surface, maybe the clocker report will shed some light on how that time was gained.
3 Vincenzino goes out for a barn with 2 runners in the field. Old Workout info from Jan has this one no match for recent beaten MSW favorite Spun Oats. Has solid line of works and 2 routes at Tapeta with no excuses has me leaning toward the barn mate.
4 Full Coverage makes his 3rd start for a barn that is 16% in this scenario if you count grass and syn/tap races. Blinkers / LX / and Jose aboard. What I do not like is the works. OLD WORKOUT INFO – Back in July / Aug of last year barn had worked him on the dirt and turf at Saratoga not looking good on either. Maybe the Tapeta is the key, BUT had been working poorly at the beginning at GP meet, they worked once with Blinkers in Feb. Then without Blinkers March 11th. To my eyes he looked better without the blinkers on. But will run with them today. Seems maybe the barn is searching for the keys to this one.
5 (A) Bel Ami keeps Leparoux about after running well in last closing from off the pace and hanging on left lead a bit in stretch. Barn is 23% in this scenario the last 5 years if you count Turf & Syn surfaces. Will be cutting back a bit in distance but this is where things get aggravating using the Tapeta as more than a back up. Can this one repeat his prior performances but now on the Tapeta?
6 (A) Nate the Great had average works prior to debut for Saffie where he ran well, Then almost hung on for the win in the last over the Tapeta going a bit shorter. Barn surprisingly is only 7% with 3rd/Start/MSW/TURF/Syn Routes.
7 (B) Stanley House tries the Tapeta here at GP again after having no excuse in the Feb 16th effort. I did like both Sprints at Woodbine last year and has worked well the entire time he has been at GP. Definitely one to include but the last dulled the excitement.
8 (A) 20-1 Simcoe is the price horse I want. Debut on the dirt and just ran around the track and now will get Blinkers / Lasix. OLD WORKOUT Note – Jan was outworking recent beaten MSW Fav Spun Oats and appears to be the better of the barn mates entered here.
9 Nanga Parbat has the most experience of the group and a decent race ran at Chelmsford in August. Tries the GP Tapeta for the first time in a group with no standouts.
10 Silent Mode went off at 108-1 in debut where he ran into a tough group. Barn is 0 for 4 here but once again soft looking bunch.
11 Rigel is a bit interesting after nearly taking them gate to wire on debut at 47-1 vs MD Claimers. Now steps up to a weak group of MSW and Paco will be sending.
No strong play here with confidence so multi-race is where my focus will be. But forcing my hand I will make TOP Pick from a betting standpoint 8 Simcoe at a HUGE PRICE Maybe small win wage….