Any Stats or percentages are based on specific Scenario in the last 5 years unless stated otherwise. Example – 1st Time Starter / Sprint / Dirt / MSW.
Most definitely could be some typos here as rushed for time with 4 MSW’s today
The Turf Races were Handicapped for TURF and they are on the Tapeta. But will leave as is.
Race 1 – TURF Little short on 100% of the work with this first race, got behind this week on my normal degenerate activities…
1 (B)Spun Oats goes out for a barn that is 26% with first time starters as a whole. But has not ever started a firster going long on the grass. Most have been sprinting at woodbine on synthetic. Works are average at best. Not enough information.
2 (C) Apple Saucy was not in for a tag in debut and just ran around the track. Not a lot of work information other than has been getting beat up on by Daisy Doozy.
3 (A) Geyser Road’s two previous starts got washed off the grass. Irad sticks on this one after running very well on the Tapeta in her last start. Has been working well without Blinkers which she gets here today. NOTE recent workmate Arisaema goes in the 5th today.
4 (A) Sassy But Precious tries the grass and 2 turns for the second time today. She ran well in last, but had no real excuse, She had a perfect trip and finished well. Won the gallop with ease. Tyler Sticks here and should improve off the last effort.
5 (A) Our Flag Flying I thought looked a touch better the 4 in her last until late when she was out finished a touch for 2nd.
6 (C) Constitutionalist stretches out today and gets on the turf which fits the pedigree. Paco likely to send this one so could be dangerous.
7 Principia
8 Kittenen
9 (B) Subtle Senorita has a nice gate work and goes out for a very capable barn. This one outworked Coach Abernathy on Jan 21st who won on debut in a 25MD Claimer on the 29th
10 Verifiable
11 (B) Coco’s debut work gets my attention here. Barn is just 1 for 19 with first time starters as a whole. Nothing negative in workouts.
12 Yamile’s
Top Pick – 5 Our Flag Flying but will be a spread race and nothing other then getting thru leg 1 of the early P5 that often produces big prices.
Race 5 – 1 16th on the Grass is one of the more interesting races of the day. I maybe getting a little to creative in a tough race….
1 (C) Sweet Curalina tries the Turf for the first time. Barn is just 8% with the scenario and when u narrow that to first time turf that drops to 0 for 16. But horses win races not stats. Still is trying something for the first time.
2 (A) Aspen debut she showed nice early speed, finished well in stretch. She took some money in debut and now comes over from Tampa where the water does get a little deeper. OLD WORKOUT NOTES Dec 18 got the best of MY PHILLY TWIRL. Dec 9th worked trio w Princess Theorem and Jamestown.
3 Arisaema in all 5 previous this one just has ran around the track basically but results were not bad in doing so. Getting to a different surface might help this one have a bit more finish that has been lacking in other tries. Lots of old workout info on this one and nothing that stands out. Workmate on Jan 5th – Geyser Road runs in Race 1
4 (C) Golden Belief has some decent races while going through a blinker experiment then taking them back off. Gets Junior to ride today which sure cannot hurt her chances. Current workout report is more of what I have in old notes. Nothing negative or exciting.
5 (C) War Princess 3rd Start for Pletcher / Saez, will take money. Barn is crazy 31% but she has No Excuse in either effort. Gd Trips and just had nothing late.
6 Mesaoria has ran well in all 4 turf tries. Debut in 21′ ran into Skims, then Beside Herself, etc. Can she win here? Of course, but I can’t find a excuse in any of her prior.
7 (B) Kinchen weird name for a horse… debut was something to get excited about enough even Chad put in a stakes her next start. She is slow to respond but always keep churning away, Her last looks better on paper than it was. Trailed and was under a ride early, she cut corner and ran home same pace passing tired horses. She did get better late and galloped out by everyone, the extra 16th will help but may even more ground.
8 (C) For the Flag has a lot of stuff going on here. Moves into Toner Barn , takes Blinkers off and gets Lasix after being turned out for 1 year. Workout report is very positive and compared to the workout info I have from 2021 has picked it up a notch.
9 Reaching Stride is overmatched here. But she is not as bad on paper as appears she will make one run same paced. Was in for a tag 2 back, but her first turf try you can toss. Hate to knock a jock but he never even asked this filly and Castellano gave up on her a bit 2 back. She gets dusted here today look for a drop in class and a price on her down the road.
10 (A) Chiromante , I really liked this filly coming into her last race where she did not have an excuse other than maybe she needed a race. Her 2 races in 22′ she had an issue changing leads which cost her the win at Belmont, I did not see that in her last. Tyler gets off her here and goes to the Chad runner. But i seen too much talent last year to exclude this one.
11 Wardeya we are back to the Pletcher / Irad / Saez whole chasing deal here. Pletcher is just 13 for 146 in this scenario. and 2 for 27 with Irad….
12 (A) Empress At War’s last race you can toss, she had a perf trip up until the stretch where she looked loaded and never got a chance to run. She fits here and would be the one I want out of the Jan 14th race, unfortunately she draws a tough post here.
I will be trying to get by with just my A’s here to build some equity. The Pletcher pair will take money, and they may run 1-2 here, but will pass. Separating my 3- A’s is tough to do as I would like to use them all equally but will settle on TOP PICK – 2 Aspen Alternate – 10 Chiromante I am not a Box bet type players, but I also bet what the races tells me to. Maybe.. a small Ex box 2,10,12
Race 7 going 6F on Dirt – Very tough group to separate, at least it is the start of the late P5. So we can get a look were money goes and will be watching paddock / post parade for any that may show a reason to toss.
1 (B) Every Time made 3 starts as a 2 year old. Now makes first start in Mott barn and tries the Dirt. 1st lasix, Need to include this one just on unknown info.
2 Nikki M P – Barn 15% w this type. Workout report is nothing flashy but not negative either.
3 (B) Hollywoodland is a half to Unified and comes with a big price tag. Barn 14% No other Info
4 (A) Legendary for Pletcher with Irad has the typical Pletcher good work series. Jan 13th Workmate won her debut on the 29th. Saez ends up on the 5?
5 (A) A.P. Lady showed good speed in her last traveled nicely, had no excuse other than she tired in the stretch and was out finished. She get Lasix today and Saez riding. Barn is 3 for 15 and 53% itm with this type. Her works on the 15th and 22nd she was bested by the undefeated and Forward Gal winner Red Carpet Ready
6 (B) Paleta is a 1/2 to AmericanRevolution and barn has been known to win first out with some prices. 8 for 45 w a 2.65 ROI.
7 (A) Ro Town Debut had the look that Lasix will improve her today. She showed early speed and was empty off turn. She took money on debut and that 36 initial work jumped out to be on debut… Barn is just 12% with the type and Irad did opt to the Pletcher runner. Seems to be working well since debut.
8 (B) Town’s a Breeze could be sneaky one. There is no current workout report info or do I have any old. Barn is 1 for 4 in scenario. Much like a horse I liked yesterday, she comes out of a woodbine barn that rarely debuts one on the dirt. She some flashy works we just have no clue how she got the times. Castellano got going yesterday with everyone out of town.
9 (A) Sudoku Terry 20-1 ? 3rd Foal out of an unraced mare. 1 sibling Macallan that is in the Pletcher barn nearly won on debut has been a nice colt and this one is getting some love in the workout report and i like seeing 5F gate works. Barn is 2 for 15 and 47% ITM. Vasquez has been working this one, could be a huge price.
10 (A) Lady Irvine makes her second start after taking a ton of money in the last 5 minutes to post in her debut. She ran well and looked good every step just got run down late. Delgado is 1 for 12 in this scenario with 75% ITM. She has been working good out of the debut and of course was working well prior.
I need ALL of these in multi race tickets. The 2 would be the only one I would consider tossing, but the all but 1 thing I have heard and got bit enough I do not do that. Making a top pick that I could back is impossible for me. Forcing myself into a top pick I will take the price horses that I will be using as an A 9 Sudoku Terry at 20-1
Race 9 going 1 Mile on Dirt
1 Get Your Kicks. Chad is 17% in this scenario, Seems like I repeat this throughout the meet BUT at Gulfstream 1 for 14… Only workout info available is a year ago at OBS sale and of course she looked good they gave 300K so of course she did.
2 (C) Ocean Gateway is another unfortunately no workout info. Clement 18% but if you remove the off the turf races that moves up to 25%( 4 for 16)
3 Forenoon for a Mott barn that is hot as it gets, but this is not typically a good move 4% does get a bit better removing the OffTheTurf Tries but not enough……. Junior not on this one…
4 Far Above
5 (A) Seduction had a nice debut with 3 Next out Winners including the Good Sam who won a listed stakes in her next. Pletcher / Saez No Stat Needed. Solid Works on current workout report. OLDER Notes – 9-9-22 at Belmont she outworked Best Defense who won here at GP in January.
6 Volta d’ Oro debut was bit rough. She hit the gate then tried to run up through traffic early, then made an early move entering turn gaining 3 wide quickly tired and plodded home. Barn is 1 for 12 in this scenario. She was one of the higher price 2yo’s at the June sale. Dam has produced a handful of useful runners. Sale Workout – she is just not my type, she looked like a sprinter then as she did in her debut. I prolly just made her winner going a 1 1/8th….
7 (B) Millennium Park makes her second start after being rated well back in her debut, when asked responded well gaining at rail then had to stop. She rebroke when asked splitting horses once up to 4th in the stretch 1st-3rd place horses were long gone. Jose sticks with her here. Proctor is 2 for 10 and 50% itm. Workout report shows nothing flashy, and her workmate ran a respectable 2nd going 7F in a MSW a couple weeks ago. Curious to see how she runs here.
8 Dot Marie made 5 starts as a 2 year old, never showing much. Current works suggest she has done some growing up.
9 (C) Shade – Pletcher / Irad / 500K price tag she will take money. Current workouts have this one going with mainly unraced barn mates, and searching the word Shade in my old file of workout reports matching everything.. Saez worked her on Feb 4th but opts for the 5.
10 Okay Fine is the only one of these who has dirt route experience. Her 2 Back race she did not show much at anytime during that one. Her last was not best of trips, stumbled at start then got pinched back, stayed out 3/4 path entire race, was empty in stretch. Adds Blinkers today if none of the first timers show up, its possible she runs around track
I only want the 5 Seduction in here not one that I will sale the farm to bet on, but fine singling her and moving on. With these type of runners she may be a fair price. Moderate Win Bet.
