All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
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I will be covering the Early Pick 5 in detail, and quick thoughts on rest of card.
You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
Saturday continued my ice cold streak of multi’s at Gulfstream Park. After adding the winner of Race 7 on my ticket due to pools of course I was out the next leg knowing who the winner was at the 1/4 pole….. For the first time in 6 years at this meet my ROI for P5/P6 are in the red and Win /Exacta / DD’s are carrying the load.
No one wants to hear bad beat stories we all have them and not sure this qualifies but to top the day off!! The only horse I wanted to win bet on the card outside of action plays was in the last 6 Back In The Saddle and I also played in verticals around 1 2 7 11 … He had trouble trip but got 3rd and had profit coming with a saver tri until the DQ of the 7 from second… WHAAAAA Oh well
My day ended with Tornado warnings and wake up to snow on the ground back to freezing cold INSANE !
Early Pick 5
R1 – 1 3 6
R2 – 7 B – 9
R3 – 3 8
R4 – 2 4 5 B – 1 3
R5 – 2 3 4 5 7
Still might check back once more with Mother Nature and life having me behind I still have work to do on this card.
Race 1
A LINE
1 Giftedbydesign will try the turf for the first time after a less that ideal trip last out but not one I would refer to as troubled. He was in tight early so did not get any position early and responded nicely when asked making up some ground then ran on trying to wire.
3 Chill the J should go off favored and I could make a case to single expecting improvement off a solid debut for the level. As you would expect Saffie has great numbers in this spot.
6 El Chispazo had no excuse last time but gets blinkers and lasix today. I expect Edgar to be looking for forward position on the lead or first run. Barn has great numbers when they go to Edgar so I expect this one to be live.
Pending Probable Payouts I will play around with some Exacta’s using the three A’s.
I do not see myself using any horses past those three but….
B – 2 10
C – 4 8
Race 2 has a lot to digest for an 8N2L and I have the obvious horses but definitely lots of question marks.
Lone A – 7 St. Olaf Rose is first off the claim for Saffie with Irad and working better than anything in the field. BUT ! Claimed for 20K nearly a year ago and comes back here for 8K after feed, vet, training, etc. If she wins and gets claimed Ramsey might come out on this deal.
B Line
1 – Siljim tries the dirt for the first time and travels over it just fine in the mornings. 29% barn and she gets a weight break.
9 Rocky Seas who is nothing special but has the most consistent resent races of the group so maybe you use as an A as well.
OTHER
5 – Starship Voyager is a unicorn and not the good kind. I am fairly certain I have never seen an 8 year old brought out of the pasture 4 years removed from active racing to run for a non two tag, but here we are. Vet scratch at Tampa Dec 6th before making it into the starting gate Dec 21st…… That went well. Is training with interest in the mornings and she ran fast during the first Trump administration.
Race 3 I am with the obvious horses.
A LINE
3 Leo Fong’s lack of pace is a big issue so he will need the right trip. Making up a ton of ground last time just missing second and had a similar trip two back with some early trouble makes this one a must use for me.
8 Big Amadeus looks to get a similar stalking trip once again when he just held second at the wire from Leo Fong.
B – 6 Seeking to Collect will be on the lead once again and I would consider using just in case the other 2 contenders get into trouble, but has struggled to get 5 furlongs so the extra half is not going to help.
Underneath
2 Bernardo’s Legacy broke his maiden on try number 24 only to get disqualified. He is tactical with an inside post but is more one I am looking to use in verticals.
5 Prince David is another I am looking at in the 3rd spot.
Race 4 will be a popular single that I have no Issue with but I would not totally invest in.
A LINE
2 Victory Avenue’s race a year ago makes him the favorite when running second to Speak Easy. I think the 97 beyer is too high and over a year layoff … Short price NO Thanks
4 It’s My Life interestingly enough was Victory Avenue’s work mate last winter Jan 19th 2024 Gate work was them together. Ran well on debut versus Beeline and Mr Skylight then changed barns etc.
5 Lean Music Machine obviously the dirt is no concern or Lynch would not have him in this spot. Use the horse and try to beat the heavy favorite.
B LINE
1 Term had three starts last year that can’t be knocked as all were versus deep fields. Lots of changes but nothing on clocker report and no videos to watch since the barn change.
3 Tapakena as well but I did have him a touch below
Race 5 is a bummer with the scratch of Center Stage who was a play for me today.
A LINE
2 Atmidnight gets some much needed class relief and cuts back in distance after running well going 9 furlongs last time at Tampa. Dec 19th race she was dead last off turn cutting the corner behind a wall of horses and made up ground the entire stretch while shifting lanes most of the way and once she was clear the race was over. I would have her on top but the Vet scratch Feb 1st does leave me with hesitation.
3 Confer had no chance last time sitting last when then running started and two back she ran her best race to date. April of 24 win over the turf she was much best going away under a hand ride. In short her turf races are better than they appear.
4 Domer Allure I think needs to improve from her best efforts but she has never ran over this Gulfstream turf course which could be to her liking.
5 Strand of Gold is a touch dirty on paper but the issue is Irad is up so 5-1 is not happening. Dec 19th ran huge besting several in this group and was claimed that day. Last time for new connections Irad took care of this mare a bit after being to far back making an early move extremely wide he did not ask for her best in the stretch as he knew the race was over.
Splitting hairs here and is likely an A USE
B – 7 Avatal Hero got a perf trip last time but was no match for Goodbetterbest or Center Stage the last 16th of a mile. Neither are in here today and likely will set the same trip again she just hard to bet off a no excuse effort.
1 Impanema Princess will be loose from the rail but when she is asked the question just has nothing…
6 Galley Head is a bit of an unknown but use them all and favorite wins….
Late Card I had nothing I am overly eager to bet.
Race 10 however I do have a price horse that will get looked over.
3 Vaya Jeffe took no money on debut but ran respectable even though the race came off the grass. George Arnold over the last 5 years with second time starters turf sprinting in MSW’s is 6 for 17 while being 65% in the money. 4 of those 17 came here at Gulfstream with one winner and all 4 ran well.
Small Win also will check the place and show pools.
