All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
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I will be covering the Early Pick 5 in detail, and quick thoughts on rest of card.
You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
Saturday – If not watched Pivotal Moment Race 5 Saturday – Watch that replay WOW Impressive. BUT ! not as impressive as Forever Young it’s rare a horse gets blown by like he did Saturday then tips out and runs down that same horse. It happens when the horse went by is stopping but not like he did Saturday.
Early Pick 5
R1 – 4 7 B – 8
R2 – 1 2 5 8
R3 – 2 3 8 B – ALL
R4 – 3 7 B – 2 5 6 C – ALL
R5 – 1 8 B – 6
Race 1
A LINE
4 Roar of the Beast is a must use but also a short price I would not dare win bet. Did try Florida Sired Stakes company as a maiden last time but did little running. Saffie/ Edgar with the addition of Lasix is what you would betting on.
5 Sarkis is the horse by all logical thinking should be favored sporting two races that crush this group. He is in for the tag which I consider a negative, but I will put this one on top.
7 Noble Prince rarely starts his dirt horses out in a route. The last 5 years debuting Dirt/Rte/MSW – 2 for 10. Both winners and the majority had Edgar aboard who is on the 4 today. This colt has been consistently on the work tab for a long period of time while most of the time acting as a target for mates. I watched several and nothing negative.
B LINE – 8
Race 2
A LINE
1 Drop the Hammer hung last time over the tapeta and now gets on her preferred surface for Casse who is 16% in this spot.
2 Seber Sings might get a small win wager from me if floats up in price. Sit behind horses on the tapeta last time waiting for running room and the two back race I though Reylu did a great job patiently getting through traffic.
5 Dance to Remember for Walsh who is 14% w 1st/Rte/Turf/MSW. Jan 31st was a touch better than Thursday’s debut winner Temple City Taboo and has continued to work well on the grass since.
8 Uncommon – Wait a Clement first timer made the clocking report? It is one work and not much info but at least I know now Clement’s first timers are not invisible prior to race day.
Lone B – 3 Athaliah is the only I would consider but will check the double pools prior to Race 1. Weaver 13% in this scenario. Irad worked this one a couple times , but I did not particularly like the two turf works I watched nothing over negative but just looked as if might need a race or two.
Race 3 is super competitive and requires some hair splitting.
A LINE
2 Red River Rebel ran a winning race last time tipping out getting to his target 16th then nailed by Doctor Jeff who looms in here again today. Dibona the last 5 years first off the claim tapeta sprinting 6 for 17!
3 Cadamosto I will use as an A , but last time had no excuse last time other than waited briefly for room and when got the room had NOTHING!! after saving every step. The two back race has me keeping him on the A Line as he was WOW that day.
8 Doctor Jeff I could definitely see as a single but the issue of using him alone is the trip. He lacks early speed and has to be ridden basically gate to wire but just keeps churning away. I do not think we are getting 9/2 here, but I would bet him at 5/2 with some backup Exacta’s using him in second.
B LINE – Everyone else but hard to use several in an 8 horse field of this type.
Race 4 – Is it too late to move this to Race 1 ? Then I would just skip it.. as these races have been an issue for me and everyone else who did not hit the ALL button. I will continue to separate these low level maiden claimers using logic but frustration is an understatement sometimes.
A LINE
3 Volatile Storm is going to take a ton of money here for Pletcher cutting the claiming price in half and tries the tapeta for the first time.
7 Signal Caller 12-1? I will take a stab with a token wager here at a price. Made an early wide move on debut to the lead and was caught late. Last out broke sharp but was in tight 2 back before Rajiv grabbed him rated back near last then made a 5 Wide move leveling out at the 8th pole.
B LINE
2 He’s a Daredevil tires the tapeta for the first time.
5 Yemrehanakristos has showed some ability and improved last time, but is extremely difficult to hand early on. Maybe Reyes can keep this one’s head on straight
6 Winning Fortune is one I likely should use as an A having arguably the best turf route race of the group on his resume. Drops in class and tries Tapeta.
OTHERS – $12,500 MD Claimer = ALL
Race 5 is an open 10K claimer and the majority have not won a race since clearing their 3 win condition.
A LINE
1 Neophyte was much the best last time getting to the rail, saving ground, tip out 3 wide running down the leader. He starts on the rail today with Zayas back aboard. Can make a case to single.
3 Dropkick Murphy only makes the A Line because of lack of true pace here. No Match for the 2 horses to beat in this race in his last 2 starts, but it is likely he clears to the rail which makes him dangerous.
8 Ready for a Fight was better than the nose win suggests last time after waiting behind horses not getting room really till near the 8th poll. Junior will need to get the jump on Neophyte and with an outside draw it could happen.
With the scratch of the 3 – I will move 6 Bella Future up to a B due to lack of pace in here.
Race 6 is interesting and should we trust the favorite?
A LINE
2 Smokin Jack Flash has been working extremely well this winter but yet to get his picture taken. I think is the safer selection of the A’s.
6 Not Guilty will be value coming out of a slightly lower class level that came back slow on time due to the pace. Not Guilty closed into that slow pace finishing well, so would give him another shot today.
8 Night of Magic for a trainer that has ship a handful over to Gulfstream and the 2 on tapeta ran well at big prices. Debut came 2 years ago over this tapeta course and lays over this field. Came back 2 years later for a different barn running a big race over the Tampa Dirt. Does it translate ?
B – 5 Reverend Moon is one that likely should be on my A Line for Obvious reasons.
Other – If got overly spready here I would include the 4 due to lack of information.
Race 7 does have several trying something new or have never ran over this Gulfstream turf course that could surprise. The 11 not getting in makes it more of a spread for me.
A LINE
4 Vindicate Cha Cha I have on top as she should clear this group and will be a matter of saving some in a race that looks to have several closers.
5 Beauty of the Nile I want on my tickets at a price. Was entered Feb 23rd but scratched when the race was taken off the turf so they are not looking to run on the tapeta. Her turf races at Belterra (Yes I know Belterra) but they are fast and if you toss the Hawthorne over Yielding turf. She is 3 for 3 on the grass.
6 Miss Bodacious is a must use until I see otherwise.
B LINE – 2 7
C Line – Prices that will be completely dismissed
7 Dial Home faces winner for the first time and has 2 turf tries that were less than stellar, but training very well.
9 Proud Mary will be outpaced early but has never been over this turf course. She has a couple races over that got my attention.
Race 8 is a recommend spread if possible.
A LINE
8 Souper Success on top for me but not an overwhelming favorite by any means. Consistently runs his race and will stalk from the outside was facing much tougher here at Gulfstream a year ago.
9 Banneker has never faced horses of this class while just two back winning a 8K N3L, but fast is fast! Nov 16th and Dec 26 races were very fast and has enough speed to clear from the outside.
B LINE – 3 4 5 6
Race 9 I am on the obvious two with a underneath play.
A LINE
7 Rookie Card’s 3 races in New York crush this group and will be the first time facing state breds. Post scratches help his chances taking out some that would be sending for the lead.
8 Cut the Dust I want to use although using both does not make a ton of sense. July layoff and barn has yet to get a win this meet but I like the works.
Race 10 does not have but a couple that I would be completely surprised if they won.
A LINE
1 Ciao Chuck I have bet a couple times and is a must use and I could see going off favored.
6 Inherent Promise comes off an August layoff but arguably his best race came off a layoff last March here at Gulfstream. Can stalk or send.
7 Bourbon Thirty might get a small win bet from me if the price is right. I like the 2 races here last year and I was going to bet this horse last time before the race came off the turf based off some works in Dec. Saez not riding back is a bit of a negative but the price should be right.
B LINE – 2 3 4 5 10 So basically ALL but one as I don’t need the 8.
