Forecast has occasional showers today, so could put the turf in jeopardy, but a few things I have learned…
I am an excellent handicapper, Average bettor and poor meteorologist.
I am late on work today, Will update if comes off the turf or if find a hidden jewel in late races….
Race 1
A – 1 St Pats Day last out she had nothing for Shasta Star late, but still ran well. The 2 previous were eye catching performances for the level. She is 3 for 5 since moving in Cazares barn, without a great deal of confidence she is a lone A for me here.
B – 7 Magic Moonstar last race was a bit baffling although she dropped in class and was favorited she still produced a race far better than her previous 2 tapeta efforts. She does not get the benefit of the inside post today but depending on what the 2 does here she could still find herself loose.
B – 8 Nikee Kan was scratched out of the 10K claimer yesterday for this spot and would be a defensive use here at best. She does run consistent and gets Irad which at Gulfstream has became a better take out reducer than Baby Yoda.
C – 2 Bunty Windermere is the wildcard here. She showed last out she can run on anything under the right circumstances and now will try the tapeta.
Race 2 going 1 Mile and 3/8th TURF ONLY.
A – 2 Settling Storm will be a much shorter price here than she should be. Clement with Irad, she nearly hung on going 1 1/4 at Belmont and then had a toss race in July. Has not been seen since.
A – 7 I’m a Sure Thing is the Clement runner I prefer of the two. She is fit and showed up in all of her starts always finishing well just not having enough late. Pedigree and her gallops out says the distance will be no problem here.
B – 5 War Princess will be another at a shorter price than she should be. Maybe she gets loose here and lasts, but when this mare is asked to run she just shows nothing.
Race 3
A – 6 Holiday Fantasy added blinkers 2 races back and by my numbers ran his best tapeta route race to date although beaten by 9L! Then came back to the dirt for the first time since his debut and got the win.
B – 5 Major King is popular in the claim box which is a good sign. Has won dirt routing gate to wire, has ran at this 6250 level awhile and some of those races were N3L or Time restricted which is bit tougher.
C – 2 Tepeu is one I really just want to toss, I won on this horse when broke its maiden and followed him for a bit had some talent. Barn claimed him for 50K out of race he stopped in, followed that up with 2 bad races, Vet scratch Dec 8th now dumping him for 6250, RUN
C – 3 Exult drops to lowest level of career and now tries the dirt for the first time. No question he can go the distance if handles the dirt and he is not fast enough not to take kick back. Just an unknown
Race 4
A – 5 Overly Dramatic for Pletcher with Irad, we all know is a potent combination. She is working well, although in my opinion I did not think she was nearly as good going out as the clocker report sounds but she only has to 3/4’s of a mile today.
A – 9 Very Practical 2nd start for McGaughey. I made a nice score yesterday with Conquest Warrior which is not the reason I like her here. The 1 work I watched rider never moved she broke sharp went out bit time. On debut the only thing that went right was loading in the gate. Form says “Off Slw” TRIP NOTE ^^ Showed some talent – Nothing went right Entire race Stood in gate Very slw 10B ran up rail qkly in hand to ent turn 3B gaining, Got inside of leader ,CK/CLIP drop 3/4B Jock sit up at this point
B – Roswell for Mott with Junior is a combination I always respect and I have absolutely nothing on this runner. No old workout info or current, nothing on clocker report.
Other – 2 Neat Trick has been improving but has not showed anything close to what the 5 and 9 have in the mornings.
Race 5 TURF ONLY
A – 4 Sweet Dani Girl looks to be an overwhelming favorite for Clement. She is tactical, she won this race a year ago, she is 2 for 2 when facing state bred both in stakes company. The only negative to found is she has only raced once since August and that was at Keeneland in October.
A – 7 Time Passage is 6 for 13 lifetime, but only made 1 start on the turf and that was vs 3 year olds. She has only faced older on 4 occasions. The big positive is since moving from the dirt she shows up every time no matter the surface of the distance.
B – 3 Baby Steps is probably a reach here but she has been improving and has always had talent. Enough that in 2021 she was pre-entered in the BC JuvTurfSpint and the BCJuvFillyTurf but got in neither. She has only tried a route of ground on 2 occasions faltering in both. I expect way better than 6-1 odds
Championship Meet ROI – Amount Wagered – BEHIND ON BOOK KEEPING
Stats for Just the Early Pick 5 Races on Blog
Not all races had a top Pick – Top Pick Winner 34 for 96
A Selection Winner – 82 of 115
Races I completely WIFFED 21 of 115
