All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
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I will be covering the Early Pick 5, plus any strong plays, stakes, MSW late on cards. You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
There is a mandatory payout today of the ____ pick 6… Sorry I get a bit nauseated when I hear the word J—–T…
As a whole there are several horses that will take money today I have reasons to be against so swinging in the multi’s knowing there is a chance I completely whiff!!!
CAUTION!! if it will crush your world losing do not play these tickets…. VOLATILE!!! but I am swinging today
Early P5 I am going to play a larger ticket than normal as I do like the sequence and against some Irad horses while leaving out some horses I think can win… Definitely volatile sequence with lower level maidens.
.50 play $144 During races 2 and 3 put on your lucky socks on, find a clover, borrow Matt Millers horse shoe he has hidden somewhere but will not tell any of us where!! Joking aside there is no luck involved BETTOR WAY OF THINKING !!
R1 – 1 3 6 11
R2 – 3 5
R3 – 4 5
R4 – 2 4 5
R5 – 1 4 5 6 8 11 (13 AE is not scratched yet but assuming it will be)
PICK 6
I do not chase these mandatories as we all once did, so many times they payout very little compared to expectations. My approach today is spend a little and cross fingers to make a lot.
.20 My Main Ticket = $230.40 If looking to play a more budget friendly ticket I would look to Race 9.. Using the A – 6 7 Then 4 5… Leaving off the 1 2
R5 – 1 4 5 6 8 11 (assuming AE13 scratches)
R6 – 3
R7 – 3 5 9 10
R8 – 1 2 5 7
R9 – 1 2 4 5 6 7
R10 – 2 (6 SCR) UPDATE A bit bummed the 6 is out in here which was my top pick… 5 also scratched late… Trusting African Water alone is tough. I would likely add the 9 or 8… I luckily put my ticket in already so I am going to take another approach ,, Another Matt Miller Credit… Unless the rules are different for this pick 6… Leaving the 6 on my ticket would default me to the favorite..
TROPICAL TURF PICK 3!! I spent $120 yesterday getting back $480… Not that good of a return THE KICKER is I could have play an ICE COLD with my tops and hit.. AHHHH!!
R5 – 1 4 5 6 8 11
R8 – 1 2 5 7
R10 – 2 6
Race 1 is $12,500 maidens so I am looking for some coverage.
A LINE
1 Migratory is the deserving favorite in my opinion although draws the rail and Irad went to the 3? Had a good trip last time and maybe had more to give. I hate to question the best jockey in the colony but I though Irad could have ridden this one a bit harder last time.
3 Irish Wish is a must use but will likely go off favored based on a total guess. No way I could bet this horse to win.
4 Knockanara (SCR) is another trying sprinting on the tapeta for the first time. What makes this horse less likely to win on paper than the 3? Yes I know Casse/Irad but take those two out of the equation and answer again.
6 Tapping out a Tune has dropped to this level in his last two attempts running well while coming up short late. I will use but last time when beaten by an 0 for 23 maiden is tough to endorse.
11 Frosty Shop has enough speed to be close and Reylu may just send! Ran well two back over the tapeta and should be plenty fit after routing on the grass.
OTHER – 10 Scallywag is the only B I had down trying the tapeta for the first time.
Race 2 Daily Double – I likely will play a SMALL!! not crush DD R2 – 3,5 into R3 – 4 Should be good value but on low level horses ….
A LINE
3 Love My Job fits in this group and has faced a touch tougher company in most of her starts. If she can repeat her last she looks to be the most likely winner.
5 Andie One dropped back down to a straight 8K N3L last time and tried blinkers for the first time. I thought she ran respectable for the level, but connections must thought blinkers took her back a step so those will be removed and trying again. Very consistent but has not found the winner circle in long time.
B LINE which I will likely use both.
1 Diamonds for Lilly I considered leaving out all together as I do not agree with the morning line, curious to see if takes money but her resume says no thanks.
4 Darling Darley I could see her winning if both A’s have an issue…
Race 3 Another Maiden $12.500 claimer…… proceed with caution ..
A LINE
4 Primal Song is my top selection here. This comes down to watching works as this gelding is the only one I seen that showed signs of life… If goes off at 5-1 better I will make a small action bet but I do not bet $12,500 maiden often for a reason.
5 Mighty Murphy I will use based on I expect to have the lead, but I have nothing other than that to be positive about.
B LINE – 2 , 3 , 7
Race 4
A LINE
2 Dios Will’s two sprint races have been respectable on the front end, dug in last time just simply out finished late.
3 Hollywood Mayhen (SCR) will be over bet with Irad moving up to winners for the first time. Last time was much best and never asked for everything while slow to change leads against the rail. I am just not certain this one has another gear.
4 Grand Joker will need to improve off the maiden win where he was much best but had an easy lead.
5 Venezuela Gold stumbled out of the gate last time and was last away, then got a hell of ride by Edgar to finish well. I have this one on top… Did Edgar opt for the 8? or get the shaft once again… SMH
OTHER The above brings me to 8 Lazio who one might include as a B dropping in for a tag for the first time and gets Edgar to ride. But has done nothing on the race track to make me back him.
Race 5 is the first of two MSW’s today and the one I think we can look back on later to point out there was some nice fillies in that one.
A LINE
1 Sol d’Oro I have nothing…. No workout videos, nothing from clocker report, NOTHING NOTHING NOTHING … We need to fix our betting product. I wish I had any negative to toss this one, but unfortunately I do not.
4 Tellus Mater for Motion has a couple positive turf works on the clocker report but none I could watch with my own eyes. Motion in the last 5 years is only 8 for 100! in this spot BUT what is a bit interesting is 5 of those 8 winner came 2024 ( 5 for 21).
5 Table Flirt makes her third start for Mott who is 10% is this spot but move that up to 16% with Junior aboard. Ran around AQ last time bit one paced.
6 Goal for Casse is 17% in this spot. Has a couple B works on the clocker report but no video. OLD WORK NOTE – July 14th at Saratoga this filly was best every step of the way, hard held with stakes placed Charlotte’s Heart.
8 Crystalaire makes her stateside debut for a hot Weaver barn. Nothing negative in the morning but no videos to see. Well beaten in 3 starts in Europe but just at a glance… Ides of March, Magnum Force, etc Good company
11 Close UP for DeVaux who is 17% in this spot does not run many here at Gulfstream though. I have no workout information on this runner total guess.
13 Julia if draw in becomes a must use for Delgado. She wide on debut but took off from the gate and nearly got the job done taking money on debut as well.
Will mention some others that look interesting but read the comments does not mean I am using.
2 Cocktail Kisses trying turf for the first time for Casse would not shock me, I will likely leave off tickets.
3 Just Silvia Pletcher/Zayas… I almost got Candytown home at 11-1 in the opener yesterday who I liked, but this one I will let beat me as I did not like the works.
10 We Sea You I could definitely see after being well bet in 3 starts. I did not like the works coming into the US Debut and ran accordingly. The positive is taking the blinkers off … Worked with G3 Winner Ocean Club on Dec. 6th without the blinkers and did improve although expectedly still second best but hung with classy mate.
Race 6 will be the shortest price horse of the day and everyone’s single. I see no way around him…
LONE A – 3 Be Like Clint is the class of the field with the best jockey and the best tapeta races on his page.
Other – 7 Tiz Romantic is the only horse I have that has ever run close to figures the favorite has over the tapeta. With Rosario up, I have no clue how this horse will be ridden but if was mine… Would be the Ricky Bobby approach! If you ain’t first your last! SEND
Race 7
A LINE 3 5 9 10
B LINE 1 7
Race 8 going 12 furlongs which admittedly is a spot I struggle with sometimes …. ITM Plus subscribers check your email for more on this one as there is a Pod with myself and Mike Pribozie covering this race in the Coast to Coast..
A LINE – 1 2 5 7
B – 3
Race 9
A LINE – 4 5 6 7
B LINE – 1 2
Race 10 is another we covered on the Coast 2 Coast show on ITM plus side… But will give more information here as I found this race to be difficult yet interesting.
When you get to these MSW’s for 4 year old and ups only…. Usually leads to a ton of questions.
A LINE –
2 African Water is no superstar and has no excuse in any prior race. Having this one on the A Line sums up what I think of this field.
6 Starship Boeing I have on top… UH yea not super confident here… 6 year old 0 for 7!! This mare is always kept wide and making early moved but stays on well, which is more than I can say for this group… What I field to mention on the Coast 2 Coast Pod, This horse was going to win last time at 19-1 until Anybody But You ran by her like she was tied. Anybody But You I think is a stakes caliber filly.
12 Speranzosa has a horrible post with Rosario ( Good? Bad? UGH)… Like earlier here is a top barn in a MSW race with absolute NO INFO!! NO workout videos nothing on clocker report… Which the bright side is nothing negative.
B LINE 5 and 9
WHY I AM AGAINST
3 El Zain I need to see one! This filly was in Pletcher’s barn 2023 and the summer of 2024… Entered at Monmouth June 30th only be a vet scratch.
4 Cat Eyes should improve off what was a not so stellar debut. Rank / Climbing down the back side then faded. Walsh ran this horse at Tampa because he did not think she was good enough to compete at Gulfstream.
8 Just So Pretty I will put on the P6 Ticket but not on the Turf P3 or C2C and if beats me… No Worries…. Katie rode this horse great at AQ putting her on the lead then slowing races down to come up short…. Maybe takes to the GP turf and runs off the screen for a red hot barn… But she is not for me…
11 Fundamentally … I cannot use this horse… SUPER IRAD or not… absolutely tripped out last time with no Excuse and will be on 95% of tickets…
