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I will be covering the Early Pick 5 in detail, and quick thoughts on rest of card.
You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
After being off the Turf on Wednesday and rains in the afternoon as well Races will be OFF the TURF Thursday as well
Early Pick 5 – Races 3 4 5 are difficult and the scratch of my top pick and single in Race 1 makes an all A ticket costly but if can get this ticket home should be rewarding.
R1 – 1 2 4
R2 – 1
R3 – 1 2 4 5 6 7
R4 – 1 3 8 B – 2 5 6
R5 – 3 5 6 8 B – 2 4 9
Race 1
LONE A – 5 Saint Chapelle (SCRATCHED) will likely go off favored. This mare took a big step forward taking the blinkers off last out and if can repeat that performance she buries this field.
The scratch of Saint Chapelle opens this race up and have some last minute information on a horse I want to now downgrade.
Revised A LINE
1 Ragtop Girl
2 Mathurine
4 Dream Diamond is the likely pace setter and if Saint Chapelle’s last was a fluke this one be the one I want to pick up the slack.
Downgrade 6 Carnane – Will take my chances leaving off tickets.
6 Carnane will take some money taking a huge class drop while trying a route on the tapeta for the first time. Maybe last time was a starting point off the bench but I am not buying that as Egan was riding this filly for her life early on.
Race 2
LONE A – 1 Oconee Life – If this one breaks clean from the rail then he looks to be completely loose on the lead and similar to my top pick in Race 1 a repeat of the last buries this group as well.
B LINE – 3 4 7
Race 3 is a small field luckily allowing to us to spread with a lack of information on most of these.
ALINE
2 Collective Nation I want on my tickets at a price. In a group lacking workout info at least this runner had a gate work Jan 3rd that was decent for the level.
4 Classy Chatterbox has an experience advantage over most of these but has not done much running in two starts.
5 My Perfect Lady – Zero work info Barn is 31% with ALL 1st timers debuting for a tag the last 5 years.
6 Ruby River – Zero Work info – Barn is 2 for 10 in this spot and 16% with ALL first timers debuting for a tag the last 5 years.
7 Catarina is the other with experience and I though ran just a touch better than the 4.
B LINE
1 Starship Elation I have zero work info for a barn that is 0 for 9 in this situation.
LEFT OUT 3 Valued Dreamer was an AE Wednesday for $12,500 and did not get into the field. Barn is 0 for 35 with ALL 1st timers debuting for a tag the last 5 years.
Race 4 I expect this to be on the tapeta and unfortunately I can make a case for each one of these. I will split hairs by the narrowest of margins.
A LINE Will consist of price horses
1 Hippy Hippy Shake is hard to endorse off two perfect trips with the last being over the tapeta. The issue for me is the last is the best tapeta route of this group.
3 Paddys Gift will be on top for me I liked her last two efforts here at Gulfstream Park. The Dec 19th she was badly outpaced early and made a big run in the middle of the track then galloped out well. Now catches a less that stellar group and should be a decent price.
7 Goodys Girl at 15-1 ? (SCR) It could happen if there no scratches. I have no clue if she will like the tapeta.
Trip Note from debut – 78^- Missed Break Out last, last thru turn, ask mid/late 3W, angled out EXT WIDE!! 8-9 path far back steady gain leveling off a bit late 16th – Finishing best of group and wide
8 Awesome Campaign did not do much running on debut but did draw Irad that day.
B LINE
2 Saratoga Empress has a long string of works at Turfway and was able to watch a couple of them. She worked with some a couple maidens and looked average at best.
4 Cayman Caper will need improve off the last turf effort and could make a case to be on the A line based off not knowing if will take to the tapeta. Kelly Breen numbers in this spot are not good but is from a small sample.
5 Beaches and Pearls I have not seen work over a synthetic surface but prior to debut had some decent works at Churchhill over the dirt. My issue is Walsh is giving up on this one immediately.
6 Camm’s Princess Would move to the A Line if by some miracle they stay on the turf and would have been my top pick. I think this fillies better races have clearly came over the turf.
Race 5 ends the sequence with another tough race that only a couple that would completely surprise.
A LINE I have no top selection here.
3 Denver’s Alley has sprinted over the tapeta on two occasions. The maiden breaker Nov 3rd was fast, but then she followed that up with a mediocre performance Nov. 16th not showing the same early foot she did prior. Toss the last.
5 Princess Blakely broke her maiden on debut in 2022!! 19 starts later she is still trying to get past this N2L condition while running into some nice horses along the way. She has 1 thing most of these lack…. Consistency
6 Zeena Swift is one I did not know what to do with. Everything on the page suggested she is not good enough.. Then the clocker report mentions her early speed she is been showing..
8 Supers Lucky Lady drops to her lowest level to date while trying the tapeta for the first time. She kept good company in the mornings all summer in New York but I have no clue if she can run on the tapeta.
B LINE
2 Bam Bam will face winners for the first time after stalking a slow pace from an outside post. She is one I could never bet off that last race but unfortunately there is no one in here to get excited about.
4 Sweet Mimi has some talent but at some point something has went a miss. She broke her maiden when she tried the turf for the first time and then was an OFF THE TURF SCRATCH on a couple occasions between Jan 2024 and June of 2024. Now suddenly they want to run on the tapeta?
9 Musthavebeenlove I have backed on a few occasions to be disappointed each time. I am divorcing this one which may put her right in the winners circle.
Race 6 – 2 Neoequos looks to be a short price favorite that I do not totally trust but does have races chasing Rated By Merit that lay over this field. But I will use this horse to play a Double into my play in Race 7
DAILY DOUBLE
R6 – 2 Neoequos
R7 – 4 Rotterdam – Small amount into the 3 here as well.
Race 7 – I am going to WIN BET the 4 Rotterdam in a spot that he looks to provide some nice value.
The one horse keeping me from Crusing this bet is 3 Adventurous Spirit who had a monster work over the tapeta for new connections. If he scratches will be heavy on Rotter dam. I likely will have a small backup Exacta with 3 over the 4
