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Race 1: 5 – 10 – 6
We start the day with a wide-open sprint for conditioned claimer….the kind of race I don’t want to take a favorite. #5 Gettin’ Paid (12-1) sure has the name that fits this handicapper, but more importantly, is a horse with plenty of tactical speed, a race under his belt this year, and a troubled trip. If he can break clean and be towards the front, he’s got a big shot here at a price. He’s faced much tougher before and the slight drop in distance can only help him.
Race 2: 6 – 3 – 4
Early Pick 4 Ticket: 1,2,3,4,6 / 2,3,5,6,7,8 / 5,8 / 2 ($30)
In a very tepid selection, #6 Timeless Glory (5-2) should be able to show more speed stretching out to two turns and faces a field with a lack of early gas. Despite the low win percentages for the jockey and trainer, the fact he has a prep race leading into this fair should do the 6yo mare a lot of good. If she runs back to previous races last year, she’ll have a major say. I wouldn’t doubt anyone for going in a different direction however. As you can see in my Pick 4 ticket, I’m spreading in this leg.
Race 3: 8 – 7 – 5
While the condition of the race reads, “N1X”, the competitors say it’s a weak race for the level. Horses are coming in off of restricted races (conditioned claimers / state-breds, etc….) on their page, so I’m not afraid to take a “cheaper horse” in this spot. #8 Royal Laughter (8-1) has been wide and troubled in two of his last three, and although they’ve been in claiming races, the Oaklawn circuit was VERY tough as usual this winter and spring. If jockey Felix can find a way to save ground and stay in the clear, I believe the 4yo Cairo Prince filly can go by them in the stretch.
Race 4: 5 – 8 – 2
It goes against my natural instinct to pick a horse who’s 3/37 overall and 1/22 at Hawthorne. But look at the competition #5 Christmas Present (7-2) faces today. And even though he got beat by today’s rail horse, he was wide and made a middle move only to flatten out late in a race he needed. Maybe the deft touch of jockey Chris Emigh can get him home today and give the connections that Christmas present they desire. I almost picked the 8 on top….he’s the class of the field but off a layoff with uninspiring workouts in the morning.
Race 5: 2 – 9 – 1
Late Pick 4 ticket: 1,2,9 / 3,8,10 / 2,4,9,10 / 2,10 ($36)
#2 Schmoozin (7-2) will hope that the rail horse Snoozer will set a fast early pace or be pushed by the outside runner. Schmoozin is a nice closer who won going 5f last time and now gets an extra ⅛ of a mile. If he simply replicates his last or runs back to many of his 2023 efforts, he’s a winner. I’d love to hear track announcer call a Schmoozin v. Snoozer throwdown in the stretch, that would be a lot of fun!
Race 6: 8 – 10 – 3
Trained by leading conditioner Larry Rivelli, #8 Whole Lotta Lute (3-1) was acting up a bit before they sprung the latch but still ran a credible yet distant 2nd to talented Block runner Good Apple, who came back and won again last weekend. Whole Lotta Lute was bet down, so he’s well meant, although is already a 4yo, which is a bit of a negative for me. But if he breaks, I think he’ll be tough to run down based on his competition. His 3-1 ML might feel like stealing money after this race is run, we’ll see.
Race 7: 4 – 2 – 9
I’m hoping #4 Madelyn Belle (9-2), another Rivelli runner, can either outbreak or kindly sit in behind her main speed rival, Lily’s Woofy, to her outside. Madelyn won last time off the layoff, and although she has to stretch out a bit, she was able to do that just fine last year. The Illinois-bred is up against open company in this optional allowance affair, but I don’t think it’s too much to ask. I love the guts and heart this 4yo filly showed in her last.
Race 8: 10 – 2 – 3
Trainer Louis Roussel has two horses in the finale, a two-turn open company Mdn Sp Wt. I like his horse that breaks further outside the most, #10 Cascade Cruiser (7-2), ridden today by talented young rider Alexis Centeno. He’s raced credibly against very tough company at the Fairgrounds, puts blinkers on, and has a nice work over the local Cicero surface. I’d like to Centeno use a little speed out of the gate to gain position going into the first turn, then pass them all late. I think there’s talent here and today might be the day the Catalina Cruiser 3yo gelding shows it.
