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Race 1: 6 – 2 – 1
To begin the day, the heavy favorite will be the #6 Unified Weekend (4-5), who looks to
have a pretty decent pace advantage in this race. Albeit not creative, he looks to be
very tough to beat if he gets the lead. #2 Chicks for Free and #1 Rocket Hotshot look
like the best of the rest but are going to need someone to press if they want to beat the
heavy favorite. We’ll start off the day with the chalk here.
Pick 4 Ticket: 2,5 / 2 / 1,2,3,4,6 / 1,2,5,6,7 – $25
Race 2: 5 – 2 – 3
Despite the looming presence of the heavy favorite, #2, Strange Arrange, I am going a
different direction with the #5 Lucky Shot (4-1). Coming off a half-a-year layoff last out,
ran 33⁄4 lengths behind Strange Arrange. However I feel like he will get back to the front
where he likes to be and triumph sitting just off the lead. While there are two main
speeds, the best of the rest would be the #3 Autopilot, I don’t think there’s enough
speed for him to win, but good enough to round out exotics.
Race 3: 2 – 3 – 5
Race 3 is a $50k optional claimer going six furlongs. The decent favorite will be #2 Bali
Dreamin (8-5), who will be my top pick. Again, while not creative, this looks like another
that will have a very favorable pace scenario. She’s 3/3 ITM at Hawthorne, and many
things are pointing to this one. #3 Kaely’s Sister at 9-5 ML has the numbers but has run
her best races with pace in front of her, which I am not sure she will get in this affair.
Race 4: 4 – 6 – 2
I have opted for the #4 Path to Success (7-2), who I hope lives up to his name today.
With the three horses to his inside wanting to go for the lead, Path to Success should sit
a great trip to be able to have first run on the leaders. The #6 McMoney also makes a
lot of sense in this spot coming over from Gulfstream Park but might just leave a little
too much to do late. The #2 Itwasthisbig also could be an interesting one for Arnett,
however, needs the benefit of less pace in the race to be able to fight for the win.
Race 5: 1 – 6 – 7
Pick4: 1,2,5,6,7 / 2 / 1,3,6,7 / 5,7,8,9 – $40
The favorite here is on the outside in the #7 Breaking News for Hugo Rodriguez, who
has distance concerns in my view as does the #6 Winging Ways who I have 3rd and 2nd
respectively. I am going to look to the inside with the #1 Irish Valor (7-2) for John
Arnett. He’s coming off a layoff, but won last year at Hawthorne and is now 2/2 ITM over
the strip. Dropping to the lowest competition in years for Irish Valor will be the key in the
race where I think others have some question marks.
Race 6: 2 – 3 – 6
There are many different ways you can go in this race run around 2 turns. With speed
signed on, I think the best horse to go with in this race will be the #2 Gianno (3-1). For
those that are familiar with Midwest/Chicago racing in recent times, you know the name
Larry Rivelli sticks out and for good reason. Winning almost 40% of races so far this
meet in 28 starts, his horses are always worth a look, especially when there is a decent
price involved. This fact, coupled with the prospective trip and Rivelli placing his horses
where they can win, makes this horse extremely interesting and my top pick in this
contest.
Race 7: 1 – 6 – 7
In the penultimate race at Hawthorne on Saturday, there are many different ways you
can go although there is a decently heavy favorite. #1 Overdue Honor (8-5) for Louie
Roussel and Julio Felix is my top choice. A turf horse who has run good races on the
dirt previously, he has figs that make a lot of sense. In these cheaper claimers, I always
tend to side with speed especially when there is a lack of pace in the field due to a lot of
runners not willing to pass others. This bodes well for Overdue Honor, who looks to take them all the way with a perfect post. It also does not hurt that Felix has been hot to start the meet, coming off last weekend’s Illinois Derby Victory.
Race 8: 7 – 8 – 5
The final race on Saturday consists of nine runners in a $12,500 beaten claimer going
six furlongs, and there is one horse who seems to have a decent pace advantage in this
race. That is the #8 Short Straw. However, he will be facing a little tougher today, as he
is facing winners of multiple races for the first time. I do believe he is live given the pace
scenario and the ML odds of 10-1, but my eyes went elsewhere to the #7 Dessert First
(7-2) for Elias Lopez. Elias tried her twice at the optional claiming level at Fair Grounds
and Hawthorne, and it just did not work out in her favor, so she returns to where I think
she can be very competitive, especially on numbers. Sitting a nice trip behind the lone
speed might be exactly what she needs to get back in the winner’s circle over a track
she has relished in the past, running in the money 3 of 4 attempts.
