You can reach me on “X” @hkravets and/or email at hkravetshorse@gmail.com….. Post time is 3:10pm EST. I’ll be a guest analyst on Hawthorne’s LIVE SIMULCAST FEED today with Emily Gullickson. Good luck, and CRUSH YOUR BETS!
Race 1: 4 – 3 – 6
I’ll try to beat the heavy favorite (#3 Miss River Rat) with #4 Wanda Strong (3-1), who has numbers that are equally as good as the “Rat” and is dropping down in class. Jockey Santiago knows the mare well and will most likely sit off the speed this time.
Race 2: 2 – 4 – 6
Early Pick 4 Ticket: 2,4,6 / 1,2,6 / 1,2,4,5,6 / 2,3 ($45)
Lukewarm choice #2 Rocket Hotshot (2-1) is a consistent stalking type who has been coming up just short in most of his recent efforts. On paper, this field looks a bit weaker than he’s been facing and another good trip should be coming. He’s logical, but I wouldn’t take too short a price either.
Race 3: 1 – 2 – 6
The big question mark is #6 Sawyer Fox. While he might win by 4-5 lengths, I’m dubious of the big drop and layoff. If he hooks up with the other well-meant #2 The Ridge, it might set up for my price horse, #1 Crown Royal Kid (9-2). He ran well on debut, then faltered in his next. He’s been rested up since, switches to a solid downstate trainer, and cost $250k at auction. Interesting alternative today.
Race 4: 6 – 5 – 4
While not a huge fan of the July 21st race in which three horses racing today face off again, #6 Machiva (5-1) ran deceptively well. She had to wait on the inside, but once finding room, made a very nice late run in the lane. Favorite #4 Enestina has distance questions to answer and is untrustworthy in this spot.
Race 5: 2 – 3 – 6
#2 One Way Home (5-2) is not a model of consistency, but when the 9yo veteran fires, he’s very tough. With an inside post, I expect jockey Felix to use the gelding’s early speed and be a factor from the get-go. Hoping he sits off the main speed (#4 Can Man Do) and goes by in the lane.
Race 6: 7 – 2 – 3
Late Pick 4 Ticket: All / 1,3,4 / 3,4,5 / 3 ($36)
You’ll know early if top choice #7 Strange Arrange (3-1) has a shot. He’s unproven on the turf, but has run well on synthetic surfaces, and most importantly is VERY quick early. As the speed of the speed, if he can clear from the outside in this short 5f affair, he could be tough to catch. Wide-open race…using seldom-used “all-button” in the Pick 4.
Race 7: 3 – 4 – 1
Bottom-level maiden claimers battle to graduate….soft choice #3 Flathead Finale (5-2) drops in from Prairie Meadows in Iowa for excellent connections. The 3yo Mastery filly should get a good trip from the inside and run down #4 Lost Sunset, but it won’t be easy. It’s important to note the filly’s best effort was over this Stickney oval 4-back…maybe she loves the long stretch.
Race 8: 5 – 4 – 3
Today’s feature highlights talented allowance runners going two turns on the dirt. This is also my PRICE PLAY OF THE DAY! #5 Ricky Bobby (8-1) ships in from Canterbury in Minnesota, where he’s won his last two races. While slower on paper and unproven at Hawthorne, “Bobby” is in great form and his closing style fits the profile of this race….there’s plenty of early speed signed on and the pace could fall apart late. I’m expecting the son of Gun Runner to take back early and make a big run. He’s been involved in moderate to slow-paced races lately, and should love the expected fast pace in front of him today. SHAKE AND BAKE (Talladega Night movie-lovers)!!
Race 9: 3 – 1 – 4
Trainer Chris Block (2nd in the standings) has two horses entered here…a first-time starter on the outside and #3 License to Steal (6-1), a well-bred turf-meant 3yo gelding who’s been unable to race on his preferred surface. By Speightstown out of a Fort Prado mare, he is by far the quickest early according to Timeform and could live up to his name if he takes to the grass as expected. He’ll have to hold off the rail horse late, who is 0-for-8 but a consistent closer who’ll save ground throughout.
