You can reach me on “X” @hkravets and/or email at hkravetshorse@gmail.com….. Post time is 3:10pm EST. Analysis based on grass races staying on the sod. Good luck, and CRUSH YOUR BETS!
Race 1: 2 – 8 – 1
A nice turf sprint leads off the day, and on paper there’s not a whole lot of speed signed on, contrary to most turf sprints. With that in mind, I think the favorite #2 Arthurian (9-5) will be tough to beat in here, however there are a couple that I like underneath. The #8 AP Blazing Green has been coming into form recently off a 0/15 start to win last time and seems to have found a home on the grass. Could come running late at a decent price, but given the pace scenario, would need a big run to vie for the win.
Race 2: 5 – 2 – 3
Pick4: 2,3,5 / 3,4 / 2,3,5 / 1,3,5,7,9 – $30
Race 2 features many whom ran against each other last time out. I’m not too interested in the others outside of that race. For me, #5 Rocket Hotshot (7-2) was a little farther back than regular rider Emmanuel Giles likes to have him, so a return to midpack should see him to the top here against his familiar foes. The only one outside the four that have run together that I gave a look was the #2 Itwasthisbig for high-percentage trainer Jon Arnett. Definitely one to include, but a little too inconsistent and at 2/24 lifetime, not someone I am willing to have on top at a low price.
Race 3: 3 – 4 – 5
There is a heavy favorite here, and he should have a pretty good pace scenario. #4 Joe the Tailor though is a horse who has tended to “give up” and with him going an extra half-furlong, I’m not willing to trust him on the win end at a possible even-money price. I am going with a horse who has been running against open company and is now coming to restricted state-breds. The #3 Andthethunderrolls (5-1), while inconsistent at times, should get exactly what he needs here with the extra distance from 6F where he’s ran at Hawthorne before, a stalking trip, and the competition level.
Race 4: 2 – 3 – 5
#2 Category Ten (8-5), although not a creative pick, looks to have a very favorable setup and competition which makes him look very formidable in this spot. The jockey Olaf Hernandez looks to have his choosing here whether he wants to go straight to the lead in a race with minimal early gas or sit right off and go by late.
Race 5: 1 – 6 – 7
As the bets shake out, Race 5 is a very important race for those bettors dabbling in horizontals, as this race closes out the early Pick4, and starts the late bet of the late Pick 5 if they choose to play. Not to mention, this race is also a very tricky one. With some speed in the mix, I elected to go with #1 Cadet Corps (5-1), for Cheryl Winebaugh who has been an underrated trainer in Illinois and Florida. Cadet Corps has always looked better on grass, and with him coming into form late winter of this year at Gulfstream to now shipping in from Indiana, looks to ride a rail stalking trip and should get first jump on the other favorites in here.
Race 6: 8 – 4 – 2
Pick4: 2,4,8 / 2,5,6,9 / 2 / 2,4,5,7,10 – $30
The sixth is also a pretty challenging puzzle to solve, but with a lot of speed signed on for this contest, my eyes gravitated towards horses that are going to be flying late. A horse really coming into form right now is #8 Izeondec (6-1), and while this will be the first time he’s facing more than two-time winners, this looks to be a very favorable spot. Between the fast pace in front, leading rider David Cohen back in the irons, and the big favorite that looks like he “needs the lead”, it’s “go-time” at a decent price.
Race 7: 6 – 5 – 2
Interesting turf maiden for Race 7. Heavy favorite #2 Pilkington is trained by Catalano, but he looks to need a lot of pace to win from “the clouds”, and it doesn’t look like he will get it here, but could with the right setup. I landed on #6 Spinning Heart (9-2). While not the most formidable running line, his best number came in his last at Hawthorne after shipping over from Tampa and Fair Grounds. Also, with less speed signed on than in his previous, he should be able to sit a good trip at a decent price.
Race 8: 2 – 6 – 3
The penultimate at Hawthorne looks to have a very big favorite, and for those that are familiar, this one has been owned by Crown’s Way Racing since her beginnings, #2 Peggy’s Way (8-5). I won’t sugarcoat anything, she has not been good in her previous races giving up leads late, however she looks to lay over this field both tactics and numbers-wise. It would be very disappointing if she doesn’t break her maiden here, barring any insanity that takes place with the break.
Race 9: 2 – 5 – 4
The last at Hawthorne is a great betting race with ten horses entered. The 2-1 ML-fave for Chris Block looks like she is in a tough spot with a lot of speed in the entries. I landed on the other Block horse in this race, #2 Roar of Silence (6-1) with Julio Felix back aboard. This will be her first time facing winners but will be at the same level at where she broke her maiden. If you watch that race, she had to deal with a lot of traffic as she flew from the back and just got up in time after tipping out, which was pretty impressive for a second time starter. She’s back in a race where she should get a very similar setup and at a good price, it is worth a shot to back her again.
