By William Humphrey ©
One of the highlights of the year at Oaklawn Park, the 1 1/8 miles Arkansas Derby carries a purse of $1,500,000, as well as offering 100 Kentucky Derby points to the winner. In this article, we will analyze some key historical trends from the last ten renewals, to help uncover this year’s winner. Note that there were two runnings of the race in 2020, so trends are formed from 2015. Let’s dive in!
Race History
The Arkansas Derby was first run in 1936 as the Arkansas Centennial Derby, celebrating 100 years of independent statehood in Arkansas and was won by Holl Image, who would race a total of 155 times in his career! Having earned Grade 1 status in 1981, two years later the race produced its first Kentucky Derby winner, when Sunny’s Halo used his success in Arkansas as a springboard to victory at Churchill Downs. The race was downgraded back to a Grade 2 event in 1989 but in 2004, to commemorate 100 years of racing at Oaklawn, a $5,000,000 bonus was offered to any horse who could win the Rebel Stakes, Arkansas Derby, and Kentucky Derby. Amazingly, Smarty Jones managed to complete the treble and because of the publicity Smarty Jones generated, participation in the Arkansas Derby increased and by 2010, the race was re-established as a Grade 1 race.
The Arkansas Derby has had a significant impact on the Kentucky Derby and has produced some of the sport’s most decorated champions. As well as Sunny’s Halo and Smarty Jones, American Pharoah (2015) used the Arkansas Derby as his final prep for success in the Kentucky Derby, whilst Lil E. Tee (1992), Grindstone (1996), Super Saver (2010) and Country House (2019) went on to win the Kentucky Derby having hit the board at Oaklawn. Other notable recent winners of the race include Hall of Famer Curlin (2004), multiple Grade 1 winners Omaha Beach (2019) and Cyberknife (2022) and Kentucky Derby third place finisher Angel of Empire (2023).
Key Trends from the past 10 renewals
Market Trends: The bettors have been successful in finding the winner of the Arkansas Derby since 2015, highlighted by the fact that 9/10 started as one of the top four betting choices and 6/10 favorites have justified their place in the market. The average winning odds of the last ten winners is only 4.01/1 with six winners having started at under 2/1. However, the average odds of all thirty horses to have hit the board since 2015 is a more respectable 9.52/1, with horses such as 58/1 shot King Russell (2023), managing to fill the places – good news for vertical player.
Draw and Running Style: Inside/middle has been the place to be in terms of post position, as 9/10 winners were drawn in gates 1-6. Cyberknife was the one expecting in 2022, having broken from post position 8. Front runners and stalkers have also dominated the Arkansas Derby in recent years, with 8/10 winners having been positioned within three lengths of the lead after the first half mile. This includes Magnum Moon (2018), Omaha Beach (2019) and Charlatan (2020), who all led gate to wire. 2017 winner Classic Empire was positioned in 7th after the first half mile, but he was only 2 1/2 lengths from the lead. The average beaten lengths of the last ten winners at the second point of call has been 2.87, so you want to look for horses who poses enough early speed to be close top the pace.
Preparations: In the last ten renewals, 9/10 winners of the Arkansas Derby had posted a top three finish in their most recent start and 7/10 had won last time out. The exception was 12/1 winner Super Stock in 2021, who had finished fourth in the Rebel Stakes most recently. Talking about the Rebel, 6/10 winners of the Arkansas Derby had finished in the top four in that race on their last start, and it has been by far the most profitable prep race. 15/30 horses to have hit the board in the Arkansas Derby since 2015, had most recently run in the Rebel Stakes and so it is worthwhile focusing on that form. The last two winners of the Arkansas Derby (Cyberknife in 2022 and Angel of Empire in 2023), made their prior starts at the Fair Grounds however, horses who made their previous starts outside of Oaklawn or Fair Grounds are only 2/27 in the last ten renewals, which could be seen as a negative for Muth this year. Baffert has won the Rebel three times since 2015 but only Charlatan (2020) came in from Santa Anita, as both American Pharoah (2015) and Nadal (winner of the second division of the Arkansas Derby in 2020) had prepped for this race with a success in the Rebel Stakes. Like Muth, both Storm the Court and Doppleganger had run in the San Vicente prior to the Arkansas Derby but both neither hit the board at Oaklawn.
Horse profile: Looking for horses who are already proven at both the distance and grade is key. 9/10 winners since 2015 had already won a race over 8f+ and 7/10 winners had already won a stakes race. Timberlake, Liberal Arts, Muth and Mystik Dan are the only horses in this year’s race who fit both trends. It is also worth noting that 8/10 winners since 2015 had already recorded a 100+ Equibase Speed Figure, which only applies to Timberlake, Time for Truth, Muth and Mystik Dan this year.
Trainers: Steve Asmussen, Brad Cox and Bob Baffert have incredibly won seven of the last ten renewals of the Arkansas Derby between them. The records of trainers with runners in this year’s race, who have started horses in the Arkansas Derby since 2015 are as follows:
- Baffert: 3-1-2 from 8 starters (38% win, 75% show)
- Asmussen: 2-1-1 from 20 starters (10% win, 20% show)
- Cox: 2-1-0 from 5 starters (40% win, 60% show)
- Moquett: 0-2-1 from 4 starters (0% win, 75% show)
- Lukas: 0-0-2 from 4 starters (0% win, 50% show)
- McPeek: 0-0-0 from 3 starters (0% win, 0% show)
- Desormeaux: 0-0-0 from 2 starters (0% win, 0% show)
By breaking it down in this way, we can see that Asmussen’s two-win record is not actually as strong as it appears, especially when you consider that he typically hits at a rate of 18% win and 46% show. Baffert’s record certainly merits respect and any horse he runs in Oaklawn should be feared. However, five of his eight runners in the Arkansas Derby since 2015 started as the favorite and betting his horses in this race would have returned a -$3.60 ROI. On the other hand, betting all five of Brad Cox’s horses would have returned a healthy +$7.50 ROI, with Cyberknife and Angel of Empire having started as the third and fourth betting choices, respectively. It is also worth highlighting Ron Moquett’s 0-2-1 record from his four starters, as they have consistently run to, or better than market expectations, highlighted by his 58/1 second place finish from King Russell, last year.
Positives to look for:
- One of the top four betting choices.
- Drawn in gates 1-6.
- Likely to be positioned on the lead or closely stalking the pace.
- Finished in the top three last time out.
- Ran in the Rebel Stakes.
- Already won over 8f+.
- Previously won a stakes race.
- Trained by Brad Cox or Bob Baffert.
Verdict
Only three horses in this year’s race (Timberlake, Muth and Mystik Dan) fit the trends of having won over 8f+, already having won a stakes race and recorded an ESF of 100+. However, with 6/10 winners since 2015 having previously run in the Rebel Stakes, added to the fact that Timberlake is drawn low (9/10 winners started in gates 1-6), will be forwardly placed, is 9/5 on the morning line and is trained by Brad Cox, he looks the most likely winner, based on trends. Time For Truth is a horse that really interests me as well. He overcame post position ten to win last time out – his first time going two turns, and the form of that allowance race is respectable. Behind him in second was Willy D’s, who had previously finished only 3 1/4 lengths behind Woodcourt, who went on to finish fourth to Timberlake in the Rebel on his next start. Further back in fourth was Brad Cox’s Awesome Road, who had finished fourth in the Southwest Stakes on his prior start. Time For Truth was also giving 9lbs to Willy D’s last time which only makes the performance more impressive. He is one of only four horses to have run a 100+ ESF, is well drawn in gate four, won last time out and will be close to the pace. Furthermore, Moquett’s horses have tended to run huge races in the Arkansas Derby and if he comes forward from his first two turn race, he could be a live contender at a decent price. Muth is obviously a formidable contender and has already beaten Timberlake in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. However, he’s going to have to prove himself outside of California on Saturday and based on the fact that Baffert has had two odds-on favorites beaten in this race in the last eight years, coupled with the fact that the two horses to run in this race having prepped in the San Vicente failed to hit the board at Oaklawn, I’m willing to take him on for win purposes.
Selections: 2-4-7
Good luck to everyone playing the races on Saturday.
