By William Humphrey ©
With a purse of US$12 million, the ten-furlong Dubai World Cup is one of the world’s richest races. Run annually on the last Saturday in March at Meydan Racecourse, the race is open for horses four-years-old and up from the Northern Hemisphere and for three-year-olds and up in the Southern Hemisphere. In this article, we will analyze some key historical trends to help find this year’s winner. Because Meydan has only been using a dirt track since 2015, we will look at the past eight renewals of the race. Prior to 2015, the race was run on a tapeta surface, attracting a different type of horse to those which we will see on Saturday. The race was not run in 2020 either, because of the Covid 19 pandemic, so eight it is – let’s dive in!
Race History: The race was created by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, who also owns Godolphin – one of the most powerful racing operations in the world. The G1 event was first run at Nad Al Sheba racecourse before Meydan was built and the race was transferred there in 2010. It was run on a tapeta surface from 2010 to 2014, prior to the installation of the dirt track at Meydan, which increased the participation of American and more recently, Japanese based runners. The race has become one of the most sought-after prizes in thoroughbred racing and continues to attract some of the world’s best athletes.
Notable horses to have won the Dubai World Cup include Breeders’ Cup Classic winners Cigar (1996), Curlin (2008) and Arrogate (2017), as well as Kentucky Derby winners Animal Kingdom (2013) and California Chrome (2016).
Key Trends from the past 10 renewals
Market Trends: As a result of the international nature of the Dubai World Cup, horses and form lines often become difficult to compare. 3/8 favorites have managed to justify their place in the market since 2015 but two of those were California Chrome (2016) and Arrogate (2017), who were undoubtedly the best horses in their respective renewals. Only 5/8 winners started as one of the top three betting choices and the average odds of the last eight winners has been a respectable 5.89/1. A quick glance at the international markets for this year’s race shows five horses currently trading at 10/1 or under (Ushba Tesoro, Derma Sotogake, Kabirkhan, Senor Buscador and Newgate). Prince Bishop (14/1 winner in 2015) was the only horse to have started at odds of over 10/1, so when looking for the winner, it is worthwhile focusing on these top five contenders.
Draw and Running Style: Wide draws have done better than could have been expected in the Dubai World Cup, with 5/8 winners having been drawn in gate eight or wider, including three winners who started in double digits. Prince Bishop managed to win from the rail draw in 2015 but he was the only winner to have been drawn lower than post position four. Middle to wide draws seem to be the place to be.
When $12m is on the table, a fast pace is usually set however, there has not been any particularly dominant running style. Thunder Snow made all when winning the first of his two Dubai World Cups in 2018, whilst three horses came from well off the pace, including Arrogate who was badly hampered at the start and had to pass all his rivals to win in 2017.
Preparations: It’s interesting to note that since 2015, all eight winners of the Dubai World Cup had finished first or second in their most recent start. Of the market leaders, this could be seen as a significant negative for Derma Sotogake, who only finished fifth in the Saudi Cup last time.
In regards the level needed to win the Dubai World Cup, all eight winners had recorded a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of at least 116 in one of their three most recent starts and 5/8 had recorded an RPR of 120+. Clapton, Military Law, Kabirkhan and Crupi have all failed to run to 116, which is a negative for their chances.
Horse profile: Looking at the wider profile of the last eight winners, 8/8 had won a Graded Stake and 7/8 had already won a Grade/Group 1 race. This is a negative for Clapton, Military Law, Crupi, Wilson Tesoro and Laurel River. Furthermore, 6/8 winners had won a Graded Stake over 10f+ and 8/8 had won a Graded Stake over 9f+.
Four- and five-year-olds hold the strongest record in the Dubai World Cup, having won six of the past eight renewals between them. In fact, of the twenty-four horses to have hit the board since 2015, sixteen of them (66%) were aged four or five. Eight-year-old Prince Bishop (2015) and six-year-old Ushba Tesoro (2023), were the two exceptions.
Connections: Out of the trainers with runners in Saturday’s race, only Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher have started more than four horses in this race since 2015. Their records are as follows:
- Baffert: 2-1-2 from 7 starters (29% win, 71% show)
- Pletcher: 0-0-1 from 5 starters (0% win, 20% show)
It is relevant to mention that three of Baffert’s horses started as the favorite, however Country Grammer (2022) won at odds of 15/2 and Baffert also finished third at odds of 28/1 with Mubtaahij, in 2018. His record is by far the strongest of the trainers represented this year.
If we look at things from an international perspective, American trained horses have been the most successful. 4/8 winners since 2015 were trained in America and 13/24 (54%) of horses to have finished in the first three were USA based. On the other hand, horses trained in the Middle East or outside of Europe, America or Japan are 0/26 since 2015. Only 3/24 (13%) of them managed to hit the board.
Positives to look for:
- One of the top five betting choices (under 10/1).
- Drawn middle to high.
- Finished first or second last time out.
- Previously won a Grade 1.
- Previously won a Graded Stake over 10f.
- Recorded a RPR of 116+ in one of last three starts.
- Aged four or five.
- Trained in America.
Verdict
Last year’s winner Ushba Tesoro ticks several boxes for this race and is quite rightly at the top of the market as he tries to make it back-to-back Dubai World Cup wins. He was nailed on the wire in Riyadh, thirty-five days ago by Senor Buscador in the Saudi Cup, and there is little to split them. My concern with the form of the Saudi Cup is the strength of the pace that both horses were able to close into, with Saudi Crown setting fractions of 46.01, 1:11.34 and 1:36.34. Not only was it a lung busting race, but I am unsure that they will receive the same set up in this race. Neither can be ruled out though.
Derma Sotogake blew away his competition in the UAE Derby at this meeting last year and his one length defeat in the Breeders’ Cup Classic showed that he is a quality animal. He was only three lengths off the pace in the Saudi Cup, compared to Ushba Tesoro and Senor Buscador who were both ten or more lengths from the pace, so it was a huge effort from Derma Sotogake to finish only two- and three-quarter lengths, fifth. However, he has not been able to get his head in front since he stepped out of three-year-old restricted races and considering that all eight past winners of this race had placed first or second in their prior start, I would be more inclined to use him underneath.
The Russian wonder horse, Kabirkhan, has done little wrong in Dubai so far but this is by far his sternest test and I am unconvinced that he is up to this challenge. Post position two puts me off as well and I am happy to leave him off my ticket completely.
The horse I am most interested in, fits the most trends and who I will be putting on top is Bob Baffert’s, Newgate. Drawn nicely in gate six, Newgate fits the trends of being one of the top five betting choices and being drawn middle to high. Furthermore, he won a Grade 1 over ten furlongs on his last start (his first try at the distance) and he recorded a RPR of 119 in that victory, proving his capability at the distance and class level. He circled the field in the Santa Anita Handicap last time out and hit the line strongest of all to get up on the line, looking as if he relished the distance. He has been a model of consistency in California, with seven top-two finishes in his nine career starts and consistently runs faster speed figures. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet. What’s more, Bob Baffert holds a strong record in this race and teamed up with Frankie Dettori to win this race two years ago with Country Grammer. Dettori should be able to use Newgate’s speed to put him in a comfortable stalking position (likely behind Laurel River) and I can see this improving son of Into Mischief sweeping past his rivals in the stretch.
Selections: 9-4-11
Good luck to everyone playing the races on Saturday.
