By William Humphrey ©
The 1 1/8 miles Florida Derby is one of the highlights of the year at Gulfstream and with 100 Kentucky Derby points offered to the winner, it is a key steppingstone for horses on the Derby trail. In this article, we will analyze some key historical trends to help find this year’s winner. Let’s dive in!
Race History
The race was first run in 1952 and originally held in mid-March, often resulting in horses running once more before the Kentucky Derby however, in 2005 the race was moved in the racing calendar to be run five weeks prior to the ‘Run for the Roses’. Other than that, it is essentially the same race as it was seventy-two years ago. No race has produced more Kentucky Derby winners than the Florida Derby, with twenty-five horses having used the race as a springboard to success at Churchill Downs. Fifteen horses, including names such as Northern Dancer (1964), Spectacular Bid (1979), Unbridled (1990), Barbaro (2006) and Nyquist (2016) all completed the Florida/Kentucky Derby double. Meanwhile, ten other Kentucky Derby winners have turned a Florida Derby defeat into Kentucky Derby success, including last year’s winner Mage, who finished second at Gulfstream.
Key Trends from the past 10 renewals
Market Trends: Despite only 3/10 favorites having won the Florida Derby since 2014, there have not been any huge surprises, highlighted by the fact that 8/10 winners started as one of the top two betting choices and 10/10 started as one of the top four choices. The average winning odds of the past ten winners has been a skinny 2.54/1 however, vertical players will appreciate knowing that the average odds of all thirty horses to have hit the board since 2014 has been a more respectable 9.99/1. 6/10 runnings have seen horses priced 10/1+ hit the frame, including 80/1 shot Shivaree, who ran second to Tiz the Law in 2020. When looking for the winner though, it is worthwhile focusing on the top of the market.
Draw and Running Style: Middle to high draws have been the most successful in recent running of this race, with 9/10 winners since 2014 having started in gates 4-8. Forte was the one exception last year, having overcome post position 11 to get the better of future Kentucky Derby winner Mage. It is worth noting that no horse has won from gates 1-3 since Take Charge Indy’s success in 2012 and no horse has won from the rail draw for over thirty years. Horses who poses good early speed have also dominated the Florida Derby, with 9/10 having been positioned within 3 lengths of the lead after the first half mile. Once again, Forte was the one exception, having rallied from 5 1/4 lengths behind to win. Materiality (2015), Nyquist (2016) and Maximum Security (2019) all went gate to wire and the average position of the winning horses at the second point of call has been 3.6 (1.55 lengths from the lead).
Preparations: One particularly strong statistic is that 10/10 winners of the Florida Derby since 2014 had won their prior start. When we dive deeper into this trend, it is remarkable that Forte was the only winner to have run in the Fountain of Youth Stakes last time out, considering that it is considered as the final prep race for the Florida Derby. In the last ten years, horses coming out of the Fountain of Youth are only 1/30 in the Florida Derby! Eight winners of the Fountain of Youth Stakes have tried and failed to follow up in the Florida Derby, with names such as Mohaymen, Gunnevera and Code of Honor, all proving how tough this is to do. Conversely, horses coming straight out of the Holy Bull Stakes have a decent 3/8 record in the Florida Derby, with Audible (2018), Tiz the Law (2020) and White Abarrio (2022), all having skipped the Fountain of Youth and successfully headed straight into this race. Furthermore, 4/10 Florida Derby winners came into this race off the back of a victory in an allowance race, which is good news for Seminole Chief and Conquest Warrior, however, no horse in the last ten years has come straight out of a maiden victory to follow up in this race, which is a negative for Bail Us Out and Iris’s Dream. It is also worth highlighting the fact that 9/10 winners had already recorded a victory at Gulfstream, with California shipper Nyquist (2016), being the one exception.
Horse profile: Looking for horses who are proven at the distance is essential, clear by the fact that 9/10 winners had already won a race over 8f+. Prior stakes winning form seems less essential, as only 6/10 winners had already tasted stakes race success. In terms of quality, it’s worth noting that 8/10 winners of this race since 2014 had previously recorded an Equibase Speed Figure of 100+, which only Fierceness can claim to have done in this year’s renewal. All ten most recent winners of this race had previously run an ESF of 96+, which in Saturday’s race only Fierceness, Frankie’s Empire, Hades, Le Dom Bro and Seminole Chief have achieved.
Trainers: The records of trainers with runners in this year’s race, who have started horses in the Florida Derby since 2014 are as follows:
- T Pletcher: 6-1-0 from 11 starters (55% win, 64% show)
- S Joseph, Jr: 1-0-0 from 6 starters (17% win, 17% show)
- C McGaughey: 0-0-2 from 2 starters (0% win, 100% show)
- M Yates: 0-0-0 from 1 starter (0% win, 0% show)
Pletcher’s record is incredible in the Florida Derby, especially as Audible (2018) and Forte (2023) were the only two favorites he started. Betting his horses would have returned a +$10.10 ROI, which is a serious boost to both Fierceness and Bail Us Out’s chances.
Jockeys: The records of jockey with rides in this year’s race, who have ridden in the Florida Derby since 2014 are as follows:
- M Vasquez: 0-0-0 from 3 rides (0% win, 0% show)
- P Lopez: 0-0-0 from 2 rides (0% win, 0% show)
- I Ortiz: 2-0-0 from 5 rides (40% win, 40% show)
- E Jamarillo: 0-0-0 from 2 rides (0% win, 0% show)
- J Castellano: 1-1-3 from 7 rides (14% win, 71% show)
- E Gonzalez: 0-0-0 from 2 rides (0% win, 0% show)
- J Leparoux: 0-1-1 from 4 rides (0% win, 50% show)
- J Rosario: 0-0-1 from 4 rides (0% win, 25% show)
- J Velasquez: 3-2-1 from 7 rides (42% win, 86% show)
- J Ortiz: 0-2-2 from 6 rides (0% win, 66% show)
John Velasquez has been the man to side with in the Florida Derby, again strengthening the chances of Fierceness. Irad Ortiz and Javier Castellano’s records also merit respect. On the other hand, Jose Ortiz is in need of a change of luck, because despite the fact that four of his six mounts in this race have hit the frame, he has been beaten on three favorites.
Positives to look for:
- One of the top four betting choices.
- Drawn in gate 4+.
- Likely to be positioned on the lead or close stalking.
- Won last start.
- Ran in the Holy Bull Stakes last time out.
- Already won at Gulfstream.
- Already won over 8f+.
- Previously recorded an ESF of 96+.
- Trained by Pletcher.
- Ridden by John Velasquez, Irad Ortiz or Javier Castellano.
Negatives to be wary of:
- Drawn 1-3.
- Yet to run an ESF of 96.
- Ran in the Fountain of Youth.
- Ridden by Jose Ortiz.
Verdict
A case could be made for Hades, who comfortably saw off Fierceness last time out. The fact that he is a Gulfstream Park winner, has proven form over the trip and is one of only four horses to have run a 96+ ESF makes him of interest. However, based on trends his inside draw could be a cause for concern and it seems unlikely that he will get away with such comfortable fractions on the lead. He had a fitness advantage over Fierceness last time and was also in receipt of 6lbs, neither of which will be the case on Saturday, so I would be surprised if he could uphold the Holy Bull form. Nevertheless, he showed signs of greenness in the Holy Bull, but when Paco Lopez put him to work, he readily responded, and Lopez was only flagging him with the crop late. I can see him taking another step forward on Saturday and being a player once again.
Seminole Chief is another interesting contender who is well drawn, will be close to the speed, is proven at the distance, track, grade and had a nice, confidence boosting win last time, recording a 96 ESF. He fits several trends but can be a little ‘boom or bust’, has not been very professional with his lead changes and I question whether there is much more to come from him.
Conquest Warrior is a live contender who comes into this race from an allowance win and in the last ten years, four horses have won this race off the back of allowance race victories. However, they had previously recorded ESF’s of 98, 100, 110 and 97 respectively, while Conquest Warrior only ran to 85. He was unextended late last time though, and I believe he could certainly have run faster. Behind him in that allowance race was Saffie Joseph, Jr’s Merit, who had finished 5 1/2 lengths third to a fully extended Real Macho previously, so the form of that race is respectable. On the other hand, Jose Ortiz’s record in this race is not strong and whether you want to buy into that trend or not, he is going to try to sit a similar trip to Fierceness and personally, I cannot see him beating the favorite. Nevertheless, he is full of potential, and I can see him hitting the board.
Frankie’s Empire calls for some respect, but the inside draw and lack of early speed are cause for concern. Forte was the only one of thirty horses to have used the Fountain of Youth as a successful prep for the Florida Derby since 2014 and Frankie’s Empire was flattered by his third-place finish in a slow, depleted renewal of that race. I would value the Holy Bull form more than the Fountain of Youth and be willing to leave both him and Le Dom Bro off of my ticket.
There is no denying that Firerceness’ defeat at odds of 1/5 in the Holy Bull Stakes was disappointing and he has a few questions to answer however, he still appears to be the most likely winner based on trends. As we have seen, a wide draw should pose no issue to him and he is likely to be forwardly placed, provided he breaks cleaner than he did last time. He is proven at the distance, is the only horse with a 100+ ESF to his name (remember that 8/10 winners held that accolade) and he comes here straight out of the Holy Bull, which has been used as a prep race for three of the last ten winners. Combine these factors with the extraordinary success of both Pletcher and Velasquez in this race and he looks the horse to be putting on top. He has always been a superb work horse, so I would not be getting too carried away with his recent breezes because he was breezing in a similar style prior to the Holy Bull. However, the fact that he has been kicking his work partners’ backsides in the morning does give me confidence that he was not solely a precocious two-year-old that has not trained on, which one could argue is the case based on his last run. Irrespective of his works, you would imagine that he has tightened up for his last effort and if he is on a going day, everyone else will be fighting for second.
Selections: 10-2-9
Good luck to everyone playing the races on Saturday.
