By William Humphrey ©
Race History: Run over one and one eighth miles on the synthetic track and offering a purse of $700,000, as well as 100 Kentucky Derby points to the winner, the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Stakes is the highlight of the year at Turfway Park. The race was first run in 1972 as the Latonia Spiral Stakes over a flat mile. The naming was a result of Latonia Racetrack (now Turfway Park) General Manager John Battaglia, creating a race for horses “spiralling” towards the Kentucky Derby. Such was the race’s early popularity, two divisions were run in 1973, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978 and 1980. In 1982, the distance was increased to one mile and one sixteenth and by 1984, the race had earned Grade 3 status, before being upgraded to a Grade 2 in 1988 – the same year that the race distance was increased again to its current length. The race has held multiple different names in its fifty-two-year history, becoming known as the Jeff Ruby Stakes in 2018, following sponsorship by Jeff Ruby Culinary Entertainment, owner of Jeff Ruby’s Steakhouses. Despite being downgraded to a Grade 3 in 2011, the race became a Kentucky Derby points race in 2013 and continued to attract high profile runners who went on to have an impact under the Twin Spires, thus resulting in the race becoming part of the “Road to the Kentucky Derby Championship Season” in 2021. The first Kentucky Derby winner to use the Jeff Ruby Stakes as a springboard to success in the ‘Run for the Roses’, was Lil E. Tee, in 1992, with Graham Motion’s, Animal Kingdom, replicating the feat in 2011. Most recently, Rich Strike finished 3rd at Turfway before shocking the racing world, with an 80/1 upset at Churchill Downs. Other notable horses to have run in the Jeff Ruby Stakes include G1 Preakness Stakes winner Hansel (1991), Hall of Fame filly Serena’s Song (1995), and G1 winners: Perfect Drift (2002), Hard Spun (2007) and Two Phil’s (2023) – all of whom hit the board in the Kentucky Derby.
Everyone knows that finding winners at Turfway Park is difficult and so here, we can look at some trends from the last ten renewals of the Jeff Ruby Stakes, to help us cash a ticket.
Key Trends Since 2014
Draw and Running Style: The first trend to highlight is how well wide drawn horses have done in this race. Since 2014, 7/10 winners were drawn in gate 7 or wider, including We Miss Artie (2014), Dubai Sky (2015) and Field Pass (2020), who all came out of gate 11. Forwardly placed horses have also fared best in this race recently, with 7/10 winner being positioned within 3 lengths of the lead after the first half mile. Somelikeithotbrown (2018) managed to go gate to wire but typically, stalking types have had the advantage. The last two winners (Tiz the Bomb in 2022 and Two Phil’s last year) were both sitting in sixth position at the second point of call however, they were only 2 3/4 lengths and 2 1/4 lengths off of the lead, respectively.
Market Trends: Turfway is renowned for large fields throwing up big priced winners and to an extent, the Jeff Ruby Stakes is no exception. Only 2/10 favorites have won this race since 2014 and in fact, only 4/10 even hit the board. However, 8/10 winners had gone off as one of the top four betting choices and so it pays to look at the top of the market. The average winning odds of the last ten winners has been a respectable 8.1/1 and the average odds of all thirty horses to hit the board since 2014 has been 13.2/1. In 2017, the first three finishers started at odds of 24/1, 35/1 and 11/1 and so it’s okay to get a little creative.
Preparations: A significant trend is that 9/10 winners of the Jeff Ruby Stakes since 2014, had finished in the top 3 in a stake race on their prior start. We Miss Artie (2014) was the one exception, having run 8th in the Holy Bull Stakes on his most recent start. This can be seen as a negative for Freedom Principle, Dancing Groom, Noted, Woodcourt, Ottello, Baytown Chatterbox (ran in an allowance) and Triple Espresso. It’s also interesting to see that 8/10 winners were coming into this race having run on either the turf or synthetic in their previous start. In fact, Dubai Sky (2015), Oscar Nominated (2016), Somelikeithotbrown (2019), Field Pass (2020) and Like the King (2021) had all only run on turf or synthetic before winning the Jeff Ruby Stakes. Two Phil’s was an exception last year, having finished 3rd in the LeComte Stakes before his Turfway success however, based on the fact that he won the race by 5 1/4 lengths and went on to finish second in the Kentucky Derby before winning the Ohio Derby by 5 3/4 lengths, one could argue that he was an outlier based on how superior he was to his competition in the Jeff Ruby Stakes. In this year’s race, ten of the fourteen entered horses ran at either Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs or Oaklawn Park in their most recent runs. When looking back at how horses coming in from these tracks have done, Gulfstream has been the most successful. Since 2014, 24 horses to have come from Gulfstream to have run in the Jeff Ruby Stakes and they hold a respectable 4-2-1 record. On the other hand, horses who last ran at Tampa or Oaklawn most recently are 0/19 in the last ten years and only three of them even managed to hit the board. Horses to come from Oaklawn are 0-1-1 from 8 starters since 2014 and horses to come out of a race at Tampa are 0-0-1 from 11 starters. Of the last ten winners, two came from Fair Grounds, four came from Gulfstream, one came from Golden Gate and three came out of races at Turfway.
Horse Profiles: Looking for experienced horses who are proven at the grade is also essential, as 8/10 winners had already recorded a stakes win. Blended Secret (2018) and Like the King (2021) had not won a stake before their victories in this race however, both were stakes placed in their most recent starts. Furthermore, 9/10 winners had made either five, six or seven prior starts to winning at Turfway Park. Dubai Sky (2015) had only run in four races prior to winning the Jeff Ruby Stakes but no winner had made less than four previous starts, or more than seven. When considering the level required to win this race, it’s worthwhile noting that 9/10 winners since 2014 had recorded an Equibase Speed Figure of 96 or higher in one of their three most recent starts. This is a trend that only applies to Lucky Jeremy, Agate Road, Northern Flame and Endlessly, this year.
Trainers: Of the trainers with runners in this year’s race, only Todd Pletcher and Kenny McPeek have recorded a victory in this race before. Pletcher won the Jeff Ruby Stakes with Alto Star (2001), Flower Alley (2005) and We Miss Artie (2014), whilst McPeek was successful with Tiz the Bomb in 2022. However, it’s worthwhile looking at the overall performances of their runners since 2014. Pletcher’s holds a 1-4-0 record from nine starters (11% win, 55% show) however, his two favorites (Hazit in 2018 and Major Dude in 2023) were both turned over. Meanwhile, Tiz the Bomb was the only one of McPeek’s seven runners since 2014 to have even hit the board.
Takeaways
- Pay attention to horses drawn in gate 7 or wider, who will likely be close to the pace.
- Concentrate on the top of the betting market when looking for the winner but be wary of the favorite. Don’t be afraid of bigger prices for vertical wagering purposes.
- Focus on horses who posted a top 3 finish in a turf or synthetic stake race on their most recent start.
- Be wary of any horses coming in from races at either Oaklawn Park or Tampa Bay Downs.
- Remember that 9/10 winners had made either five, six or seven prior starts to winning at Turfway Park. No winner had made less than four previous starts, or more than seven.
- Look towards siding with horses who have run an Equibase Speed Figure of at least 96 in one of their three most recent starts.
- Consider Pletcher and McPeek’s records in this race.
Verdict: #10 Endlessly
Blended Citizen used the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate as a springboard to Jeff Ruby Stakes success in 2014 and Endlessly can repeat that feat this year. His last three ESF’s have been 97, 103 and 101, making him one of only four horses in this year’s race to fit that trend. As we have seen, the wide draw should pose no issue and the fact that has made five prior starts, all of which were on the turf or synthetic which is are more positives for him. Admittedly, he is listed as the 5/2 morning line favorite, which historically doesn’t bode well for his chances, however, he still fits more trends than any of his competitors and he looks set for another stakes victory here.
