Horse by Horse Analysis – Juvenile Races – John Pinder

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint 

 

One great thing about 2 year-old Championship Races is that there is not a lot that separates them from a statistical standpoint. One bad thing about 2 year-old Championship Races is that there is not a lot that separates them from a statistical standpoint.

#1 Mighty Gurkha *

IRE Shipper.   Tries hard.  Has only run on soft going and, as is the case with most young sprinters that come from overseas, has never gone around a turn.

#2 Windy City Red

Florida-bred colt trained by Johnathan Wong will be running for the third time in his career.  His two prior starts were competitive but needs to continue his improvement to have a shot in this race.  Inclined to include because of the trainer but I don’t like him being down on the inside in such a large field.

#3 Lipizzaner *

Trained by Aidan O’Brien Lipizzaner is an Uncle Mo colt.  His better races are run over soft ground.

#4 County Final

This well-bred youngster is out of Oxbow from a Tapit mare. Speed figures are slightly less than par for this Steve Asmussen trained colt and he has missed the board in his last two attempts. He is cutting back in distance which could help him propel to the next level.  If his last race would have been at 5.5F he may have held on for 2nd.  Potential.

#5 Cowan

Asmussen trained colt out of Kantharos is preparing to make his 5th lifetime start.  Ran a big race last time out against a solid pace and received a good speed figure from it.  Ran on from the back of the pack and got a good rail trip without any trouble and kicked home hard. All things the same Cowan will be very lucky to close unimpeded in this full field.  Pass.

#6 Ubettabelieveit *

IRE Shipper. Trained by Nigel Tinkler.  Best races to date suggest that he prefers to come from off the pace.

#7 Momos

Well-bred youngster, trained by Christophe Clement is a Distorted Humor colt out of a Speightstown mare.  Attempted the turf for the first time in his most recent outing. Ran a great race but got edged out in the final strides.  That was a 6F contest and the slight cut back in distance should do him very well.

#8 Amanzi Yimpilo

Hello boys – This two-year-old filly is very well-bred out of No Nay Never (Scat Daddy) and Irish mare Honourably (Galileo) is trained by Wesley Ward.  She put the young boys on notice when she ran a heck of a race, winning the Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita back in September. If she can run as well as that race and or improve just slightly, she could be a value play. Contender

#9 After Five

Another Wesley Ward runner, this one a colt who was sired by The Factor, ran a very fast and evenly paced race in his last time out during the G3 Futurity S.  Came on late to score second place but will need to get an advantageous trip in order for that to happen in this one.  Pass.

#10 Bodenheimer

Lund Valorie saddles this young colt, son of Atta Boy Roy for his fifth career start.  His last race was his best by far as he set blazing fractions and was able to hold on late for the victory.  He will be a part of the pace for certain, but can he put away this talented group? 

#11 Into the Sunrise

Wesley Ward sends out this extremely well-bred colt out of Into Mischief.  This youngster has attempted 3 different distances on the turf and one 5F sprint on the dirt.  In all of his races, he does extremely well out of the gate and goes to the front with good pace, a definite positive.  Why try him at so many different distances in his young career?  – Just a slight hesitation from me in this race, but hey I’m not going to question Mr. Ward.  Pass for me.

#12 Dirty Dangle

Mark Casse sends out this gelded son of Not This Time in his first run for the Casse barn.  He won a thriller of a race up at Woodbine getting a ground-saving trip on the inside then smoothly transitioning to the outside to go by just as they all approached the wire.  There was a small pack of runners on the front end of the race throughout, which from a “Who did you beat?” perspective leaves you waning.  Pass

#13 Second of July

Phillip Gleaves is the trainer of this progressive gelding who was the winner of the G3 Futurity Stakes with his late run to take the victory at 6F.  It’s not that the horses from that race weren’t good runners it’s just difficult to see that scenario playing out again at a shorter distance. Mix that in with the presence of several other runners who have run faster early fractions. Pass

#14 Golden Pal

If you had to guess who trains this morning-line favorite, well-bred colt sired by Uncle Mo out of Lady Shipman; you might assume that it couldn’t possibly be Mr. Wesley Ward.  I mean how could one guy have 4 runners in one race? Right? Wrong. (BTW: Ward also trains all 3 of the Also Eligibles) Drawn to the extreme outside this Florida-bred won’t have any traffic as he attempts to accelerate to the front. His last race was more like a workout than an actual competition.   Can he be just as effective on the front end with a little company?  Contender and potential winner but I will be looking for value elsewhere. 

#15 Blame the Booze (AE)

#16 Gypsy King (AE)

#17 Trade Deal (AE)

* Runner overview is taken from the premium package content articles by experts (Nick Luck and Steven Bonnick) on International runners. – Please reference those articles for full context.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf 

 

Lots of Shippers in this race – Please reference premium package content articles by experts, Nick Luck and Steven Bonnick, on International Runners

#1 Sealiway*

FR. Bred Shipper. Trained by Frederic Rossi. Won impressively in his last outing and received high rating figures. The victory came on soft ground at a right-hand track.

#2 New Mandate*

IRE Bred Shipper. Trained by Ralph Beckett.  Winner of his last three starts.

#3 Abarta

Well-bred colt is making his third start for trainer Brad Cox.  In both prior outings, he has progressed from a speed figure perspective and shows his ability to rate well.  Last time out he was chasing a fast pace and was unable to start his run until the middle of the stretch, but then blasted on from there.  The mile might be a little short for him to be able to get into a long powerful stride. Underneath potential and depending on pace, a possible WIN. 

#4 Public Sector

Chad Brown trains this Great-Britain bred colt of Kingman who closed well in his last start.  All signs point to progression do the replays where one will notice the horse beginning to cultivate that late turn-of-foot running style.

#5 Cadillac *

IRE. Shipper. Colt trained by Jessica Harrington. 4 – 2 Lifetime. One win at the distance.  Anticipated to like the American ground.

#6 Mutasaabeq

Todd Pletcher trains this Into Mischief colt that closed into a hot pace last time and ran down his competition in the lane.  Textbook ride and set up for what a turf route should look like. My only concern is if Mutasaabeq will look as good as he did in the G2 Bourbon if the pace isn’t quick?

#7 Fire At Will

Mike Maker trains this colt that was sired by Declaration of War out of a Kitten’s Joy dam named Flirt.  This will be his third outing but at this point it’s hard to declare a running style for this one.  He has won two of his last three with two distinctly different running styles.  In his last race, he won on the front end and went from last to first the one before that. Versatility can be dangerous. Consideration

#8 Outadore

Outadore is a Kentucky-bred colt trained by Wesley Ward.  Preparing for his third start, he will be stretching out in distance from 6 ½F to 8F.  Looking back at his two victories they have come from a position right off the lead before powering home. His closing times are somewhat lacking but he was also not being asked by jockey Jose Ortiz.

#9 Battleground *

GB Shipper. Kentucky-Bred Colt out of War Front; Dam is Found, who won BC Turf at this track. Trained by Aidan O’Brien – Please read Mr. Steven Bonnick’s write-up for detailed insights on all European runners. Good information on Battleground.

#10 Ebeko

Trained by Peter Miller this IRE-Bred son of Awtaad will be making his sixth lifetime start.  Based on the two U.S. running lines, Ebeko likes to come from off the pace and close late.  Although he did finish 1st in the last and 2nd in the other, the speed figures that came back for both races are less than desirable. Pass.

#11 Gretzky the Great

Mark Casse trains this Ontario-bred son of Nyquist and prepares him for his US debut; All of his previous starts were at Woodbine.  Broke his maiden on an off-track going 6F then moved over to the turf for a 6 ½F contest that he won and most recently won the G1 Summer in September.  Won’t be far off the lead and has shown the ability to say during his brief career.  Contender.

#12 Go Athletico *

FR. Shipper. Trained by P. Decouz P.

#13 Devilwala *

IRE Shipper.  Trained by Ralph Beckett. 

#14 The Lir Jet *

IRE Shipper. Trained by Michael Bell.

#15 Barrister Tom (AE)

#16 Harlan Estate (AE)

* Runner overview is taken from the premium package content articles by experts, Nick Luck and Steven Bonnick, on International runners. – Please reference those articles for full context.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

                     

Race Summary:

You could potentially make a case for every runner in this field.  All have put up good to great numbers against less-talented competition. This race will push them to be best.  Let’s go find some value.

#1 Simply Ravishing

A New York-bred filly out of Laoban and trained by Kenny McPeek.  Unbeaten in her career she is a perfect 3 for 3 with one of those victories happening at Keeneland.  She is seemingly focused on the task at hand and runs like she is an older, professional horse.  I also like the fact that she has won on essentially 3 different surfaces: turf, an off track and a fast track.  Breaking from the #1 post position she will need to use that speed a little more than I would like but she could still get it done, but she heats up the pace and she is the target. Pass.

#2 Vequist

Trainer Robert Reid sends out this Kentucky-bred filly out of (you guessed it!), Nyquist.  Evenly-paced in all her starts, Vequist has not shown great a flash. Now, she has not been bad by any estimation. I’m just saying that there have been no outstanding signs of greatness either. Of course, she could progress and run a really big number. She could even WIN the race!  I just haven’t seen any precursory signs.  Pass for win. Underneath.

#3 Dayoutoftheoffice

Trained by Timothy Hamm, this Kentucky-bred out of Into Mischief filly is also undefeated in her 3 lifetime starts.  Looking at the races she has run and how she ran, I believe that she will be prompting the pace right off the flank of Simply Ravishing.  Going an additional 16th against several horses leads me to exclude her from the top spot. Pass.

#4 Thoughtfully

Kentucky bred filly trained by Steve Asmussen is out of Tapit.  Thoughtfully numbers are lower across the scale for the most part.  The most concerning one was her last here at Keeneland. She was attending the pace and attempting to make a move and then nothing.  In that race, she was beaten by two of her fellow competitors that are in today’s race. Pass

#5 Girl Daddy

Trained by Dale Romans, this Kentucky-bred is out of Uncle Mo.  Girl Daddy is a perfect 2 for 2 in her career so far.  She got the advantageous jump on Crazy Beautiful in her last time out in the G3 Pocahontas Stakes and was able to finish the deal. She ran a good race but I think this race is going to be set up for someone coming from off the pace.  Pass.

#6 Crazy Beautiful

Trained by Kenny McPeak this Kentucky-bred filly is out of Liam’s Map.  Okay here’s my longshot, fingers crossed, the play of the race.  Crazy Beautiful possesses the running style that I believe will set her up well in this race.  As displayed in her second and third starts, she has the ability to stay close and then accelerate off the turn.   In her last race, she attempted to run with and press Simply Ravishing, which proved to be a mistake.  A couple of things have to happen for this to come to fruition, but I think the value odds could be in our favor.  I think Crazy Beautiful has the opportunity for the win, but I also will be keying her in the top three spots.  Fingers crossed in hopes of getting anywhere near the Morning Line odds. 

#7 Princess Noor

Bob Baffert trains this regally bred filly out of Not This Time. This filly was purchased at the OBS Spring sale for 1.35 Million. Wow!  In all her three starts she has won impressively and pulled away from the field easily.  Based on running style and projections of the other runners, this race should set up perfectly for Princess Noor.  A contender for sure! As mentioned in the race summary, I want to help us find value.   If Princess Noor is a heavy favorite at or near post time, I will look in a different direction.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf 

 

#1 Oodnadatta*

Trained by Mrs. Harrington, this IRE-bred filly is showing signs of improving still and could be more to come.

#2 Miss Amulet *

IRE-bred filly is trained by Ken J Condon is showing a consistent and progressive pattern.

#3 Alda

A Kentucky-bred filly trained by Graham Motion who has shown the ability to close well.  In her last race, she was unable to get to the front going a mile at Woodbine, chasing honest fractions.  Pass.

#4 Plum Ali

Undefeated in her first 3 starts this Christophe Clement trained filly looked great in her last race.  Her middle move into a fast pace was the difference.  Jockey Joel Rosario’s riding style should fit her like a glove.  Consider.

#5 Aunt Pearl

Brad Cox saddles this undefeated IRE-bred filly for her third career start.  She has run back to back solid races both on the front end.  Opening quarter and final times in those races suggest that Aunt Pearl will look to go the front and attempt to stay there.  Contender.

#6 Nazuna*

IRE-bred filly trained by Roger Varian.

#7 Tetragonal

Richard Baltas trained IRE-bred filly who is looking forward to the additional 16th of a mile in this race.  Last time out she was beaten by Madone, also entered in this race, by only a neck.  Will have to do too much to win this race. Underneath possibilities.

#8 Mother Earth*

IRE-bred filly trained by Aidan O’Brrien to be ridden by Ryan Moore.

#9 Madone

Kentucky-bred filly trained by Simon Callaghan is unbeaten in 3 starts.  Certified closer that could be dangerous if things heat up. Probable.

#10 Campanelle

IRE-bred filly trained by Westly Ward is unbeaten in 3 starts. Broke her maiden at Gulfstream Park in May, then proceeded to win overseas.  Her last time out was in G1 company in France where she won going 6F on the Turf.  Dettori retains the mount.

#11 Royal Approval

Very solid numbers for this Wesley Ward trained Kentucky-bred filly out of Tiznow.  Will be stretching out for the first time but based on her pedigree that should not be a problem. 

#12 Spanish Loveaffair

Kentucky-bred filly trained by Mark Casse, should be on or near the lead in this one.  Her numbers are slightly below the favorites, but she has proven her aptitude for the mile on three occasions.  Contender.   

#13 Union Gables

Tood Pletcher trained filly out of Speightstown, whose numbers do not appear up to par with her fellow runners. Pass.

#14 Editor At Large

Chad Brown sends out this IRE-bred filly that has not put in all together yet.  In her last race, she was in a perfect position in a fast race and could not run down the leader.  Pass.

#15 Invincible Gal (AE)

#16 Snowfall (AE)

* Runner overview is taken from the premium package content articles by experts (Nick Luck and Steven Bonnick) on International runners. – Please reference those articles for full context.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

 

This is what Future Stars Friday is all about.  Who will climb the leaderboard of potential Triple Crown hopefuls?  Let’s attempt to pick him before the race is run. 😊

#1  Camp Hope

Kentucky-bred colt of out Summer Front is trained by Kenny McPeek.  Can’t start off any better than 1 for 1, right? Broke his Maiden at the 85K level, same distance as this race, closing into a slow pace.   The pace will not be slow in this race.

#2 King Fury

Kentucky-bred colt of out Curlin is also trained by Kenny McPeek.  2 out of his 3 prior races are not bad at all.  The one lackluster effort has when he faced several of the competitors in this race.

#3 Reinvestment Risk

Chad Brown saddles this Upstart colt that was bred in Kentucky.  Reinvestment Risk has been a model of consistency and his numbers are some of the very best, unfortunately, he has been beat handily by Jackie’s Warrior.  If the favorite doesn’t run his best or is compromised somehow Reinvestment Risk could turn the tables.

#4 Likeable

Kentucky-bred colt of out Frosted is trained by Todd Pletcher.  After one unsuccessful attempt, Likable was then able to break his maiden, going a mile in distance, in front running fashion.  Need to see more.

#5 Essential Quality

Kentucky-bred colt of out Tapit is trained by Brad Cox.  This is one of the runners that I am very interested in to be a formidable challenger to our projected race favorite.  2 starts, 2 wins very good times, and pace figures.  Won’t be a huge price on the Tote, even so giving this runner major consideration.

#6 Keepmeinmind

Is a Laoban colt trained by Robertino Diodoro bred in Kentucky.  Mr. Diodoro trains two horses in this race, both were sired by Laoban.  I don’t think that brothers will fare well in this spot.

#7 Jackie’s Warrior

Steve Asmussen trains this Kentucky-bred colt of out Maclean’s Music.  Your undisputed Morning Line Odds Favorite opens at 7/5 and could be lower by post time.  4 first place victories all have come on the front end all have been won by open lengths.  If that was not impressive enough, let’s go ahead and mention the fact that each victory was at a different length.  He started at 5F when he broke his maiden and has added a furlong of distance in each race achieving the same end result.  Of course, a horse of this caliber has to be respected and considered but let’s if any of the other runners have a shot.

#8 Classier

Kentucky-bred colt out of Empire maker is trained by Bob Baffert.  In his only start he broke his maiden impressively, he ran the 6.5F furlongs in good time.  It’s hard to find any statistical reason why to play this colt versus the race favorite, I can only think of four words.  Elegant-Silver Haired Trainer.

#9 Sittin On Go

Dale Romans trains this Kentucky bred colt of out Brody’s Cause.  Sittin on Go has a running style that could be dangerous in this spot; in a race that seems to full of speed if Sittin can Sit and then pounce we could have value play.

#10 Dreamer’s Disease

Is a Laoban colt trained by Robertino Diodoro bred in Kentucky.  Has not shown consistency or the statistical ability to be able to compete on this level. Pass.

#11 Next

Is a Kentucky-bred colt out Not This Time, trained by Wesley Ward.  A pace contributor for sure, but there is not a pattern of consistency that would lead me to project Next as a winner of this race. Pass

#12 Hot Rod Charlie

Kentucky-bred colt trained by Doug O’Neil.  Broke his maiden last time out at the Mdn 55k level after four attempts.  Pass.

#13 Rombauer

Kentucky-bred colt trained by Michael McCarthy.  Evenly paced runner that is not at this level at this time.  Pass.

#14 Calibrate

Steve Asmussen trains this Kentucky-bred colt of out Distorted Humor.  Won his Maiden race with good numbers and then stepped up to the G1 Breeders Futurity and was no factor at all.  Pass.

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