By Will Humphrey ©
Three horses to consider using in your Sunday wagers. Good luck!
· Ellis Park, Race 8: #2 SHE’S LOOKIN LUCKY (20/1 ML)
$250,000 is up for grabs in race eight at Ellis Park on Sunday, the KY Downs Preview Ladies Turf Mile Stakes. A competitive field of fourteen have been entered for the event, with the morning line headed at odds of 3/1 by #11 WALKATHON, who comes into this race off of a dominant gate to wire score in Churchill Downs’ Anchorage Overnight Stakes last time. Ian Wilkes’ trainee has the best form in the race and looks a logical choice, but if bettors want to spice up their tickets a little, it’s worth taking a look at SHE’S LOOKIN LUCKY.
Owned and bred by Richard Dunn, SHE’S LOOKIN LUCKY is by LOOKIN AT LUCKY, out the un-raced mare, WORLDLY HEIRESS, who herself is out of two-time stake winning turf router and $370,000 earner, CHANGING WORLD. WORLDLY HEIRESS’ siblings also made over $130,000 routing on the turf.
Despite the turf influence in her pedigree, SHE’S LOOKIN LUCKY established herself as a high level dirt router last year, with the highlights of her 3yo season being a 7 length victory in a NX1 allowance here at Ellis Park, a 9 1/4 lengths 4th behind WET PAINT in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), and a 2nd place finish in the Seneca Overnight Stakes at Churchill Downs, in which, she split XIGERA and TAXED.
In her 2024 debut, SHE’S LOOKIN LUCKY tired late on following a 219-day break and was beaten as the 6/5 favorite in an off-turf allowance at Churchill Downs. However, with that race fitness underneath her, plus a switch to the turf for the first time, she simply blew a strong group of established turf routers over today’s C&D, 28-days ago.
Breaking alertly from the outside post, SHE’S LOOKIN LUCKY crossed over to the rail and travelled very sweetly in behind a runaway leader down the back stretch, before reeling that rival in and tipping into the two-path rounding the home bend. Still racing well in hand turning for home, she effortlessly opened up on the field when asked to put the race to bed by Sunday’s rider, Axel Concepcion, and held off MAKE THE BOY’S WINK to cross the wire 2 1/4 lengths in front.
It was a very eye-catching performance from Shirer’s trainee, who despite having not recorded a workout on the grass, looked a complete natural on the surface. Physically, she looked like turf horse, with that slim, athletic build, and I loved the way that she was a complete professional in how she exerted her energy in a different way compared to dirt racing, saving her energy for a big burst of speed late on.
She’s going to have to raise her game in order to win here, however, her 82 Beyer does give her a shot at hitting the board and with some turf experience under her belt, she could well step forward as she now makes her third start of the form cycle.
Since her turf debut, Shirer has given his trainee a couple of nice maintenance works over the Churchill Downs dirt track, so she appears to be coming into this race fresh and ready to roll. From gate two, Concepcion will presumably be aggressive from the gate and use her early speed to sit in a forward, rail stalking position behind what looks set to be a swift early tempo. That should see her to good effect, as the Ellis Park turf course has been relatively speed favoring lately and it will also reduce the risk of meeting traffic trouble, which with so many runners, could hinder the closers.
To my eye, SHE’S LOOKIN LUCKY not only looks as if she has stepped forward physically from ages three to four, but also that the turf will be the surface that see’s her reach her peak. She’s already proven her ability at stakes level and at 20/1, I think that she is definitely worth using on your tickets.
· Saratoga, Race 7: #4 LOVE TEMPO (3/1 ML)
An oversubscribed field has been entered for race seven at Saratoga on Sunday, a 1 1/16 miles MSW for 2yo fillies on the Inner Turf Course. Chad Brown’s well-bred $320,000 first time starter, #9 BALLERINA D’ORO (5/2 ML), heads the morning line in this spot, however, she will have to turn away a horse who I’ve been itching to see run back.
Trained by Brendan Walsh, LOVE TEMPO is sired by the former Aidan O’Brien trained champion 2yo CHURCHILL, who won four G1 turf events in Europe, including both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas. On the dam’s side of the pedigree, LOVE TEMPO is out of the Japanese bred, French G3 turf route winner AQUAMARINE, making her a half-sister to French stakes winner and MGSP performer, ALL RUMOURS.
Brendan Walsh debuted his trainee 29-days ago over one mile at Ellis Park. Breaking a beat slowly from the inside post, LOVE TEMPO found herself positioned 9 1/2 lengths second to last early and appeared to be struggling to keep tabs on a quick pace being set up front. Patiently ridden by Declan Cannon, the daughter of CHURCHILL gradually found her stride and tagged onto the body of the field exiting the back stretch, before being forced six wide into the stretch. Upon straightening, LOVE TEMPO efficiently changed her leads and lengthened her stride powerfully, making up 5 1/4 lengths on the leaders to just miss the place spot, eventually crossing the wire 1 3/4 lengths behind two runners who had both experience and race fitness on their side.
Her defeat was simply a case for having too much to do following a poor break and a wide trip into the stretch, but with a wider draw, she could well have been able to get herself more forwardly positioned earlier in the race and have hit the wire in front.
It’s a tough task for horse to make their first start around two turns, especially two-year-olds, so after the race, I looked back at Brendan Walsh’s record with 2yo first time starters who debuted around two turns on the turf and over the past five years, his record stands at 8 wins from 63 starts (13%). What struck me though, was that four of his eight winners went onto win stakes races, including FIRST WORLD WAR, AUSTERE and NEW YEAR’S EVE, as well as MRS CLAUS, who finished 3rd in a stake on her third and final start. If you take the same opinion as me, that with a better draw and different race set-up, LOVE TEMPO could have won her debut, that’s good company to be keeping.
Now making her second career start, LOVE TEMPO will likely be meeting a tougher field than she did at Ellis, however, her experience will count for a lot here and it’s encouraging to see that over the last five years, Walsh has hit at 23% with second time starting 2yo’s who debuted in route races (12/53, $2.60 ROI).
Tyler Gaffalione now gets aboard for the first time and following two recent works over the Saratoga turf, I would be shocked if LOVE TEMPO didn’t take a huge step forward from her debut to once again go very close.
There may well be an un-raced superstar lurking among the pack, but following her run at Ellis, I think that LOVE TEMPO has all the ingredients required to develop into a very smart filly. With both a fitness and an experience edge over her rivals, 3/1 looks fair value.
· Woodbine, Race 9: #6 TOUR THE CITY (4/1 ML)
Away from the bright lights of Saratoga, Ellis Park, and Del Mar, there’s another ultra competitive card in store at Woodbine for us to get stuck into on Sunday. Nine runners plus one MTO have been entered for race nine, an OC 50k/C allowance going 7f on the turf course and Mark Casse will be launching a three-pronged attack on this race, spearheaded by his extremely well-bred trainee, #4 WAR STRATEGY (5/2 ML). Looking at the way this race could play out though, I think it’s worth siding with his apparent second-string runner, TOUR THE CITY.
Owned and bred by Gary Barber, TOUR THE CITY has an interesting cross Atlantic pedigree, as he is out of GB bred, Woodbine G3 winning router UNCHENNA, while his second dam is the German bred 12f G2 winner URIAH, who took the 2002 Long Island Handicap at Aqueduct.
With plenty of talent and stamina in his pedigree, it was unsurprising to see TOUR THE CITY start his career in competitive two turns MSW races at Gulfstream, where he ran well enough against horses such as DOMINGO and JHIRSH, however, he looked to have his stamina stretched at the distances.
Cut back to 7f for his Woodbine debut on May 12, he was settled 3 lengths off the pace by Patrick Husbands, before making a bold move at the 3/8 which he continued into the stretch, drawing away to score by 1 1/4 lengths under minimal urging. He earned a career best 83 Beyer for that effort (an 18 point jump up from his last start) and could almost certainly have run faster if asked. He looked a bonafide closing sprinter.
On the face of it, one could be forgiven for thinking that TOUR THE CITY is now trending in a backwards direction, as he has been turned over in both of his subsequent two starts and regressed on the Beyer scale both times. However, two back, when returned to the turf for a 6 1/2f in an OC 50k/N2L, he had a brutal stretch run and was unlucky not to have gotten the better of GAS ME UP, who had a clear path to close into down the center. Then, last time out when he finished behind #4 WAR STRATEGY and #9 WESTERN WHIRL, TOUR THE CITY hopped at the break before getting stuck behind a slow pace which simply wasn’t strong enough for him to close into over 6 1/2f on the synthetic track. He finished with faster closing sectionals than both of his re-opposing rivals, but the race just didn’t set up for him.
Sunday’s race, however, looks absolutely ideal. Stretched back out to 7f, with the green stuff under his hooves, and plenty of speed signed on for him to close into. He comes into this race with the second fastest Beyer and the joint top TUS speed figure, so certainly fits here and from his middle draw, Husbands should be presented with plenty of options to ensure that once a head of steam has built up, TOUR THE CITY’s momentum isn’t stopped.
I don’t think that TOUR THE CITY’s maiden score was a fluke, nor that he has lost form since that win, but I simply think that for differing reasons, his subsequent two starts have not seen him to best effect. I’m hoping that Sunday will be different and with only one turf sprint to his name, he remains more unexposed as a turf sprinter than his market rivals. Provided that he doesn’t dip much below 4/1, he looks a good bet.
Good luck to everyone having a wager on Sunday and remember to subscribe to ITM Plus for more!
