By Will Humphrey
If you needed a day to catch your breath after a hectic Saturday of wagering, you’re out of luck. We have seventeen North American stakes races to get our teeth stuck into on Sunday, five of which are graded events including the Miss Grillo Stakes (G2) at BAQ, which forms part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series. Add in the vast amount of competitive undercard races and we’re in for another day of racing to savor. So, without further ado, here are a few horses to consider using in your Sunday wagers. Good luck!
Churchill Downs Race 9 – OC 80k/N2X Allowance (One Mile): #6 SNEAD
- Trainer: Brendan Walsh
- Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
- Morning line odds: 4/1
A high quality one turn mile allowance kicks off the late DD at Churchill on Sunday, where a few notable names are set to line up including Brendan Walsh’s, SNEAD, who I’ve been itching to see make his return to the track.
A $325,000 son of NYQUIST and a grandson of G1 winner, CARA RAFAELA, this gray/roan colt really stepped forward and went straight into my stable mail when moved to the dirt in career start number three last year, breaking his maiden over today’s C&D before following up in a competitive allowance at the Fair Grounds with an 88 Beyer. Walsh then asked SNEAD to show him quite how good he was by throwing him into the Gun Runner Stakes at the Fair Grounds, and he answered the question by massively outrunning his odds to finish just over a length behind TRACK PHANTOM in second (87 Beyer), clear of horses such as RISK IT, NASH and NEAT. Following such a bold showing, connections presumably would have liked to have seen how far this colt could have gone down the ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’ but unfortunately, he suffered a setback and has gone unseen since.
This looks a great spot for him to make his reappearance in on Sunday and quite simply, he could just be better than his rivals here. Even though his speed figures were earned as a 2yo, he brings some of fastest numbers into this race and fits perfectly with this group, yet he also remains open to more improvement than most. The 281-day layoff is obviously a concern, but he has plenty of consistently spaced works behind him and huge reassurance can be taken from the fact that Walsh is 10-for-26 (38%, 62% ITM, $3.06 ROI) with horses making their first starts back from 180+ day layoffs in dirt routes. It’s also encouraging to see that Tyler Gaffalione is getting back aboard, as he is one-for-one on the colt and over the last year, has struck at a 20% clip (7-for-28, $3.18 ROI) with Walsh in dirt routes at Churchill. He should also get a suitably strong pace to close into.
I wouldn’t want him to shorten much lower than his morning line odds for win bet purposes, but I do think that he has the ability to be more than just an allowance horse and for exotic wagering purposes, he’ll certainly be on my tickets.
BAQ Race 9 – OC 50k/N1X Allowance (1 3/16 Miles, Turf): #9 L’ANTHARIS
- Trainer: Bill Mott
- Jockey: Jose Ortiz
- Morning line odds: 4/1
On paper, this full field two turn turf route looks a wide-open affair and there are a number of runners who a case can be made for. One of those is L’ANTHARIS, who, if able to step forward from his American debut at Saratoga, looks to hold every chance.
A French bred son of four time G1 winner, SOLDIER HOLLOW, who interestingly hails from the same family as four time G1 winner/1991 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) champion, ARAZI, and G1 winner, NEVERE, this Team Valor International, LLC owned five year old gelding spent the first four years of his life racing in the France, before he shipped across the Atlantic and was transferred (while remaining under the same ownership), to Bill Mott’s barn.
Having spent 396-days off the track following his last start in France, Mott’s trainee returned to action with a promising runner-up effort at Saratoga that really caught my eye. He was fresh off the layoff that day, pulled too hard early on, was giving away race fitness/American racing experience, and he was also bumped around in the stretch, yet he still managed to pick up in eye-catching fashion when set down for the drive. He briefly hit the front late on but couldn’t quite hold off the late surge of BETTER BET, and eventually had to settle for a half-length defeat in second with an 87 Beyer – the fastest last out fig on offer in Sunday’s race. In behind him that day, finished the re-opposing: BE LIKE CLINT, HARRY HOOD and HAMILTON’S WAY.
For a first run back off such a lengthy layoff, in a country and under conditions that he had never run in before, it was a promising effort from L’ANTHARIS, who looked as if he relished the firm footing which he never had the chance to run on in France. The nice thing was that he also left room for improvement and with that run now underneath him, I see no reason why he can’t step forward to score here. He’s been given ample time by Mott to get over that race, so I wouldn’t be concerned about any ‘bounce’ effect, and I’m loving the fact that Mott is 3-for-12 (25%, 58% ITM, $3.10 ROI) with turf runners making their second starts back from 300+ day layoffs. Not only should he strip fitter in this race, but I also expect that, over this slightly shorter trip, he’s going to be less fresh and not waste unnecessary energy by pulling so hard in the early stages of the race – less rusty, if you will.
He’s already got one of the fastest speed figs on show and arguably has the most scope for improvement. With Jose Ortiz (13-for-64; 20% with Mott in turf routes) climbing aboard for the first time, I’m willing to take a chance on him to move past this group and hope that we can round the card out on a high.
Churchill Downs Race 10 – 2yo MSW (6f): #7 SOUK PLAZA
- Trainer: Brad Cox
- Jockey: Florent Geroux
- Morning line odds: 2/1
I don’t know about you, but I love diving into two-year-old MSW races and get pretty pumped when regally bred debutants such as SOUK PLAZA hit the track for the first time. In other words, I’m excited to see what this filly has in store on Sunday.
Owned and bred by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum’s powerful Godolphin operation, SP is by two-time G1 winning stallion, STEET BOSS, out of a winning BERNARDINI mare named GLITTERING JEWEL. She herself, is a half to stakes winner ELUSIVE SPARKLE, as well as three-time G1 winning champion, STREET SENSE, who famously took the Kentucky Derby (G1) in 2007. If that’s not enough for you, GLITTERING JEWEL’s first foal (SP’s half-brother), is ENCINO, who won this year’s John Battaglia Memorial Stakes and Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3), briefly making him a legitimate Kentucky Derby hopeful himself, before a setback ruled him out of the race. You’ll struggle to find such a strong pedigree elsewhere on Sunday.
Regarding SP’s chances of breaking her maiden in this spot, she looks to have a winning chance on paper, as only four of her rivals having made a racecourse appearance and none of them look to be superstars. Brad Cox has been hitting at 24% with first-out 2yo’s in 2024 ($2.22 ROI) and unsurprisingly, appears to have his filly cranked for a big debut effort, having gotten fourteen perfectly spaced breezes into her, including a recent 46.40 bullet gate drill, September 22. There really isn’t anything to dislike about the work-tab, pedigree or connections, and there isn’t much to dislike about the post position in gate seven either, from where, Florent Geroux (26% with Brad Cox 2yo’s) should be able to maneuver her into a favorable position.
Obviously, it’s always a risk backing first time starting two-year-olds, but from what we have to work off of at the moment, SOUK PLAZA looks to have every chance.
Santa Anita Race 10 – OC 80k/N1X Allowance (One Mile, Turf): #8 WATCHTOWER
- Trainer: Richard Baltas
- Jockey: Diego Herrera
- Morning line odds: 6/1
Having scored by almost two lengths in the Solana Beach Stakes last time, it’s understandable as to why MOMENT’S PLEASURE has been listed as the short priced 8/5 favorite for this competitive allowance race, as her 88 Beyer is a clear standout amongst this group. However, that fig looks a little suspicious, and as she now returns to open company, I’m skeptical as to whether she’ll be able to back it up. I’m willing to oppose her and instead, think that WATCHTOWER makes the sense at the prices.
The well bred daughter of DEMARCHELIER didn’t quite cut the Chad Brown mustard in her first four career starts but she did do plenty of likable things; gradually improving her speed figure in each of her starts, she broke her maiden convincingly at Tampa in January before dead-heating in a Gulfstream allowance next out, when she hit the wire in lockstep with DE REGRESO, who came straight back to win two consecutive stakes races.
Following that solid, 84 Beyer earning effort, she passed through the sales ring at the Keeneland April Horses of Racing Age sale for a hefty $310k and joined Richard Baltas’ barn, for whom, she made her Californian debut in an OC 80k/N1X at Del Mar, September 02.
Although she regressed on Beyer scale to a 74 in that spot, I thought that she ran a super race. She was drawn way out in gate eleven and was settled eight lengths off the lead down the back stretch, before she made eye-catching progress around horses turning for home and threw down a 22.90 second final quarter mile to rally into second behind the gate to wire winner, who had gotten away with an uncontested lead on the front end and saved every inch of ground throughout. In defeat, she beat four horses who will take her on again on Sunday, and a strong argument could be made that she shaped best of all in that race.
Considering her last start came off a 149-day layoff, it wouldn’t be a surprise if this filly took a natural step forward on Sunday, especially as she improved with racing previously, and Baltas hits at 21% with horses making their second start off a 60-180-day layoff in turf routes. If she does in fact step forward, there’s no reason as to why she can’t score here, as this field is no tougher than the group she met last time (TUS race rating is lower than her last start) and it looks as if she will get an aptly strong pace to close into. She already has some of the best form and fastest figures on offer and having recently been purchased for such a large amount of dollar, one would imagine that connections see her as more than just an allowance horse – we’re probably yet to see the best of her in California. She’s already won this condition but has been granted another shot at it (as she earned only $19.8k when dead heating in April; the allowance cutoff for this race is $21k) and this looks an ideal opportunity for her to score again. At around 6/1, she looks to be providing value and to my eye, she looks a must use.
Good luck to everyone having a wager on Sunday and remember to subscribe to ITM Plus for more!
