Keeneland $3 Min All Turf Pick Three Analysis – October 16th, 2021 – By Michael Domabyl

It’s another challenging sequence at Keeneland for their #TurfPick3. Today it will be partially run on the dirt. As if a juvenile maiden race with a ton of first time starters wasn’t tough enough now we add in the fact they are running on a different surface than originally intended. Add a super competitive Grade 1 wasn’t enough, we’ve thrown into the mix a full field of turf sprinters in what looks to be a wickedly fast pace. It’s a tough sequence, but one that if connected upon, it should pay well.

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  • Leg 1 (R6): 11-3-9-4
  • Leg 2 (R8): 2-9-4-5
  • Leg 3 (R10): 3-5-1-4

Leg 1: Keeneland Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight 84k Purse

Back to the drawing board in this race after the race was taken off the turf this morning. While he was my pick on turf, now I think it might be worth fading Curbstone (#4) a bit since he’ll be bet off those turf figures and is really more bred for that surface. On dirt, I think Tonkawa Springs (#3) is now worth a look after getting a useful debut sprinting at Ellis. This is more of a route pedigree and some experience might give him the edge over his unraced rivals. Wicked Genius (#11) was only mildly interesting on turf, but he has the best dirt form of anyone and is going to be tough in this field of turf-meant runners. On turf I thought an interesting horse in this race who will be a bit of a price was Camp David (#9) for Rodolphe Brisset who reaches out for Jose Ortiz’s services. He has dirt experience and while it hasn’t been too successful, he’s worth a use in a race where it’s tough to latch on to anyone. As the first leg of the sequence, it’s going to be worth noting if any of these first time starters take money a couple of which I’ve placed as backups in this ticket

Leg 2: Keeneland Race 8 – G1-Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes 500k

You can probably make a case for just about every filly in the featured race on Saturday with runners coming into this from all different directions. Both halves of the Chad Brown pair will be formidable, but I prefer Technical Analysis (Ire) (#2) off her dual graded stakes victories at Saratoga this summer. In the Lake George, Jose Ortiz got her good early position but it wasn’t without some visible trouble entering the clubhouse turn. That proved to be no matter as she powered home in the stretch and backed it up with a dominant performance against an over-matched field in the Lake Placid where she showed she could be put on the front if need be and also handle some cut in the ground. That versatility will suit her on Saturday as she might need to take up a stalking trip with some other pace players signed on. What do you do with Empress Josephine (Ire) (#4)? She returns after running here last week in the First Lady behind wire-to-wire winner Blowout. Maybe it was the plan all along, but I find it strange they add blinkers after not using them last time, however, her last race was just too good to ignore her completely. I think both of her continent-mates could be interesting. Cloudy Dawn (#9) still has a ton of upside and just buried a horse who came back to win a Group 3. I’m worried the distance will be too sharp for Nicest (Ire) (#5), but it does appear she comes over here looking for firmer ground and Aidan has been beaten by his sons in big races in the past. Shantisara (Ire) (#3) had the run of the race last time at Belmont, but she could just be improving for Chad and when he’s paired up with Flavien Prat this year the duo has been deadly. 

Leg 3: Keeneland Race 10 – AllowanceN2X 88k Purse

Let’s close out this Saturday card and all the pick sequences with a wild turf sprint, why don’t we? Chili Petin (#4) is the horse to beat and Wesley Ward has been on fire with his turf sprinters this meet, but there sure is a lot of speed signed on that could make the journey a bit more cumbersome for her. I’ve made Ghosting Kim (#3) my top choice and I think anything nearing her 8-1 morning line represents value. Her last race came apart a bit, but it also showed she was still capable of running near her best form and there’s no guarantee this race won’t be falling apart at the end. For a proof point, look no further than to her last win which came over this course, this distance, with this same type of projected setup. If I like Ghosting Kim, I have to like Southern Mama (#5) a bit as well. She was actually half the price of Ghosting Kim in their common race back at Kentucky Downs and Southern Mama was close to that pace that fell apart. She showed in her most recent win that she can sit off the pace a bit which she might have to do here as she’s not fast enough to go with the other speeds. John Ennis points to these Keeneland meets and she’s going to be a huge number. Social Chatter (#1) is also super logical in this spot for connections that like to win at Keeneland and she too would benefit from a pace meltdown. Since I’ve structured the ticket in a way where I’m really skinny early on the “A” line I’d spread pretty wide here playing to this meltdown scenario.

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