Keeneland $3 Min Turf Pick Three Analysis – October 15th, 2022 – By Michael Domabyl

Another precious Saturday card for the Keeneland fall meet is on tap and that means another offering of the unique Turf Pick 3 wager. Good luck to those handicappers that are playing in the Keeneland live money contest today in an effort to qualify for the BCBC and NHC.

  • Follow me on Twitter: @mdomhokie


  • Leg 1 (R5): 7-3-2-4
  • Leg 2 (R7): 9-7-4-8
  • Leg 3 (R9): 6-7-2-1

Leg 1 (3:08pm): Keeneland Race 5 – Allowance N4X 140k Purse

The all-turf pick 3 kicks off with a bunch of veteran turf routers squaring off. My first thought when handicapping this race is that either Megacity (#1) or Winfromwithin (#8) would be dangerous if left alone on the front end, but ultimately decided that they will hamper each other’s chances especially due to the way they drew. However, if it turns out one of the two decide not to play, the other’s chances increase precipitously. The logical contenders that would benefit from a pace duel are Moullage (Fr) (#2), Kentucky Ghost (#3) and In Love (Brz) (#4), but each is coming off a subpar effort and will all take money based on their prior form. Of the three, I prefer Kentucky Ghost as I have some trip notes on him from the past, but his last race prevented me from putting him on top. While In Love is the Paulo Lobo entrant that will take the most money, I landed on his stablemate as my top pick. Greyes Creek (#7) looked like he could be any kind when he was initially switched to turf early in his career. Obviously a lot of time has passed since then and a barn switch from Chad Brown to Lobo has occurred, but his most recent effort proved that he still possesses some of that talent when he can work out a reasonable trip.

Leg 2 (4:12pm): Keeneland Race 7 – Maiden Special Wt 100k Purse

Just like Friday, the middle leg of the sequence is a juvenile maiden special weight going long on the turf, just this time it’s for the colts. My main opinion in this race is I’m against the morning line favorite Ashcroft (#11). While this colt has plenty of pedigree for the grass with Munnings as a solid turf influence and a strong Augustin female family, the Ward barn struggles mightily with juveniles on turf when they go a route of ground. I’m not against either of the other short prices on the morning line as I’m willing to forgive Six Missions (#7) race over a Kentucky Downs course he didn’t need to love and the debut effort from Worthington (#4) was encouraging. However, I landed on a horse who I think will appreciate a switch over to turf. Team Leader (#9) has plenty of pedigree to handle the surface switch as Street Boss is a positive influence on the top and his dam is a half to G2W Tizaqueena. The Walsh barn has struggled at the meet thus far, but this particular colt must have some talent as he was bet down to favoritism in both of his first two starts, so it might just be a case of having been running over the wrong surface. There are quite a few interesting alternatives to use as backups, but I’ll go with two more who I think will appreciate a switch to grass in Hardy Choice (#2) and Daryl’s Bolt (#8). I’ll also throw in Safe Trip Home (#1) who drew well for a barn that can be dangerous with firsters.  

Leg 3 (5:16pm): Keeneland Race 9 – G1-Sycamore Stakes 300k Purse

It’s a Grade 1 to close out the sequence with the race honoring the late Queen Elizabeth II. Whereas the first two races of the sequence lend themselves to possible upsets, I think the favorite will be tough to handle in the feature. McKulick (GB) (#6) whas run well in every one of her starts this year and has proven to be the leader of this three-year-old filly division on the grass. While she’s got plenty pf races that demonstrate her superiority to her domestic rivals, there is one wildcard in the race I’m willing to toss in on a backup line. Paris Peacock (Ire) (#7) will have her first try in the states for an owner in Glen Hill Farm that has had plenty of success on this side of the pond. She’s been racing in the lower circuit of Ireland, but has put together back to back victories improving her TimeForm figure each time. In a race, I think the public choice will be tough, I’d rather backup with a horse that has unexposed form. 

Ticket Construction

Share this

Leave a Reply

Further reading