Keeneland $3 Min Turf Pick Three Analysis – October 28th, 2022 – By Michael Domabyl

Only two more opportunities to take down the Turf Pick 3 at this Keeneland Fall Meet. The first of which comes on a Friday card that features graded stakes action in the form of the G3-Valley View Stakes which goes as the middle leg of this sequence.

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  • Leg 1 (R5): 5-13-12-4-9
  • Leg 2 (R8): 6-1-5-8
  • Leg 3 (R10): 5-12-9-7

Leg 1 (3:08pm): Keeneland Race 5 – Allowance N1X 110k Purse

The all-turf pick 3 kicks off with a rare allowance race for two-year-olds as often times maiden winners head straight to stakes races in their juvenile season. I’ve always felt watching the replays for juvenile debut efforts is much more important that looking at the running lines and there was one replay I watched for this race that jumped out at me. Heavenly Sunday (#5) debuted at Horseshoe Indy late last month and put on a show. She was able to rate just outside the leader early and then put forth a lethal turn of foot in the lane. That ability to shut off early will suit her well as there’s more speed in this race than her debut. While I’m normally hesitant to lean heavily in races like this, I think this filly has a bright future and now is the time to cash in. That opinion is bolstered by the fact I think her main rival is mired on the also eligible list. Freydis the Red (#13) has undoubtedly faced the toughest fields of anyone in this race. In her debut she caught Be Your Best and second time out ran into Free Look with both those fillies targeting the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. In her last turf start, she had a tough time finding a seam in the lane and it allowed Free Look to blow by her on the outside. There are about five other capable fillies that could win this if my top pick stubs her toe and the other filly I mentioned fails to draw in, but I’ll relegate all of those to a distant backup ticket.

Leg 2 (4:44pm): Keeneland Race 8 – G3-Valley View Stakes 300k Purse

The middle leg of the sequence is a graded stakes event for older fillies and mares routing on the grass. Dolce Zel (GB) (#5) is certainly going to be a tough customer from the potent Chad Brown operation. She’s already notched two victories at this Grade 3 level this year and is coming into this race off a respectable effort behind two talented fillies. The trip didn’t work out for her last time in the G2-Lake Placid as her stablemate Haughty was able to wire on the front end. There looks to be more pace in this full field and while she’s surely going to be running on late, I think there are two potential upsetters in this field. The first of which is California Angel (#1) who is cozily drawn on the inside and returns in under two weeks from a try at the G1 level. The fillies that defeated her in the G1-QEII are arguably all of higher quality that what she faces today and she’ll likely have more of a pace in front of her. My top pick though is Majestic Glory (GB) (#6) coming out of the red hot barn of Todd Pletcher. This filly displayed plenty of ability in her overseas efforts when knocking heads with the Grade 1 winner Wild Beauty for much of last year. She ran well when third to that filly in a Group 3 at Newmarket that kicked off her three-year-old campaign and her stateside debut was nothing to scoff at. That day she broke slowly and was rank heading into the turn which was made worse by the fact this race was eventually wired on the front end with a slower than average pace. The form of that Pebbles Stakes has held up well as second place finisher Gina Romantica took down the G1-QEII a couple weeks ago. I’m enticed by the rider switch from Dylan Davis to Luis Saez and hope he can get this filly’s early position in front of her shorter priced rivals.

Leg 3 (5:48pm): Keeneland Race 10 – Allowance N4X 140k Purse

It’s a full field of turf sprinters to close out this sequence and a salty one at that. I don’t envy the job Nick Tammaro has to do to make this morning line, but my top pick in the race might be listed a bit higher than what he’ll ultimately go off at. Outadore (#5) began his career with three stellar turf efforts, then didn’t get back to that surface until last time at Kentucky Downs. Despite finishing third, he ran a career best speed figure today and I like him even more turning back to the 5.5f distance at which he won his debut. This could certainly be a prep, but I’m intrigued to see Breaking the Rules (#12) show up in the entry box here. He has never raced shorter than a mile on turf, but I’ve always thought those shorter routes suited his late kick better. You have to question whether he can be effective going this short or if he’ll improve at those elongated sprints they run at Belmont and Aqueduct, but he’ll be too big of a price with his back class to ignore today. After those two opinions, you could throw a blanket over the rest of the field, so I’ll include as many as I can afford on a backup line linked to my other two opinions.

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