Keeneland Breeders’ Cup Full Card Analysis – Friday, 10/30/26 – By Eric Solomon

The 2026 Breeders’ Cup kicks off with Future Stars Friday. The last five races on this card are Breeders’ Cup races, all of which are featuring two year olds. A total of eight races this afternoon are for the babies.  First post this afternoon is set for 11:55 A.M (EDT). The Breeders’ Cup races start in Race 6 with a 2:55 PM (EDT) post.

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The Breeders’ Cup Day Program begins with an optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance race that features the return of Emerging Market (#1), who was last seen finishing 5th in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes. With a $175K purse offered for this allowance race, I can’t blame Chad Brown for taking a conservative approach with this colt as they navigate what’s next for him. He was really good when he debuted at Tampa Bay Downs this winter on the Sam F. Davis undercard. That effort was good enough to land him in the starting gate for the Louisiana Derby. He beat a below average field in that race, but that put him on track for the Kentucky Derby in just his third career start. He had rough trips in both the Derby and the Belmont, which led Brown to enter him in a nine furlong race at this condition at Saratoga in the summer. He ran well, but was caught wide on both turns. He was beaten by Wynstock that day, who is a graded stakes winner that came back to win another Saratoga allowance race and was second in a photo in the Empire Classic at Belmont last week. While there are some nice horses in this race, there’s no one of that caliber for him to contend with. I think the clear threat to him is Memory (#6), who defected from a race at this level on closing day at Keeneland, in favor of this spot, which offers a better purse. He would have faced Sassmaster, who ran a big race to score here, but facing Emerging Market is no picnic either. I do think Memory has a pace advantage here though. He should be the pacesetter in this race which is lacking any real other speed. He was really good on the front end when making his first start since being purchased for $90K in a horses of all racing ages auction earlier this year. He was gelded prior to being sold, which certainly could have helped as he was in some rough form prior to that. He showed a lot of potential earlier in the year as he was a strong maiden winner at Santa Anita in the spring. With the shorter stretch at this distance, he’s going to have every chance to take down the favorite in this spot. For me, I’m fairly confident with this duo, however, if you have a stronger opinion later in this early Pick-5 sequence, I do think it’s worth considering a scenario where the top two runners don’t hit the board. Both Gould’s Gold (#3) and Admiral Dennis (#5) are in for the tag for the first time today. I don’t love Gould’s Gold dropping for a tag after such a bad effort last time out. He was the model of consistency prior to that race, so being offered for a tag after that race tells me that they might be trying to move off of him for a reason. Admiral Dennis ran a big race last out at Horseshoe Indy and if he can replicate that effort, he’s going to be right there with the top two. He cleared the N2X condition last year when he won the Delaware Derby. His win in Indiana over two months ago was his first score since. He has tactical speed, so he should be in a good position to either press Memory or take the initiative and lead this field since he’s breaking to the inside. I also get that it’s hard to find races for this kind of horse, especially if they’re not looking to have him in stakes company. While this is a big stage, I don’t really get  putting him for sale at a discounted rate after one of his best career efforts. Drake’s Passage (#4)hasn’t run a race fast enough to win with at this level in over two years and I don’t think Special Session (#7) or Azam (#8) are fast enough to win today. That leaves me Stowaway (#2) as the horse that I’d play in the scenario where the top two don’t fire their best shots. He may be a bit pace compromised here and the fact that he’s finished second or third six times as many times as he’s won races is not ideal. However, he has some strong efforts with stakes types and he was really good at this level on this course last fall. His effort two back in the Yorkton Stakes at Colonial proved that this seven year old gelding can still run a race good enough to win at this level. He’s probably a much better horse to use underneath, but he’d be the one I’d look to if I were leaning into the notion that the top two aren’t going to win.

Race 2:

Two year old fillies will sprint seven furlongs in this maiden special weight that will start the first Pick-4 opportunity of the day. I think Aloha Lulu (#1) is an interesting horse in this race. She’s making her first start since the end of July after running second in a pair of two turn maiden special weight races at Ellis over the summer. She was sharp in her debut at Woodbine, running a nice figure when finishing second in a five furlong dash on the Tapeta there. This will be her first try on the dirt, but as a daughter of the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Sprint Champion, Aloha West, I think she’ll be okay. Brendan Walsh is well represented on this undercard and he’s hoping for a big afternoon, ending his day with the morning line favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, Emphatic. The horse with the best race on dirt in the field is Niosa (#6), who debuted here in a full field at the beginning of the month. She drew the rail for that race and was quick from the gate, but not quicker than the Maclean’s Music filly that was in the stall next to her. She broke on top while this Flightline filly chased from the inside. She lost a position while waiting for racing room on the turn. She tipped out and made a run at the winner, but wasn’t gaining enough ground. She’s had two local works since and seems to have circled this race for her next start. Honor Is Mine (#3) is one of two first time starters that Cherie DeVaux is looking to unveil in this spot. This Honor A.P. filly looks to be the better of the two as Jose Ortiz, the first call ride for this barn, lands here. This modest sire has been gaining some traction lately. His runners are winning 13% of the time when debuting in dirt sprint races. The most notable name on that list of his debut winners is Counting Stars, who debuted a winner at Churchill last year. We’ll see her tomorrow in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. The works are solid and this barn is sharp with first time starters. However, this is a tricky distance for debuting runners. 

Race 3, The $250K Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes:

This one mile contest for two year olds feels like a bit of a consolation prize for horses that were unable to draw into the body of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile turf races. There are plenty of ways to go in this race and I’d probably want a decent amount of coverage here. I landed on Oscar Cheer (#7) as the top pick after a very impressive maiden score on this course earlier this month. He debuted at Kentucky Downs in September and had a rough start where he spotted the field several lengths. He got moving late and cut that margin significantly, despite finishing 7th. He drew an outside post for his first try at two turns last out and he was wide early on. He was able to tuck into the two path halfway around the first turn, allowing him to move into a more comfortable spot. Once a lane opened up for him at the top of the stretch, he exploded to go from 5th to 1st in a matter of a few seconds. He finished with good energy and has every right to take another step forward in this race. Dee’s Funny Girl (#9) is one of two European fillies entered in this race against the boys. She’s trained by Donnacha O’Brien and is coming off a third place effort in a Group 3 race at Dundalk on a synthetic course. Three starts ago, she was a little better than Nuit d’Eclair (#5) at Ascot. They went their separate ways after that race with Nuit d’Eclair headed to Newmarket and Dee’s Funny Girl going to Deauville in France. She caught a soft course there as the heavy favorite in a Group 2 race and she didn’t run a step. Her rebound effort tells me that firmer ground is going to be her friend. I do think she’ll take to North American racing and at longer odds, I think she’s more dangerous than her rival. Real Goodbar (#3) is also worth considering in this race. He was a decent third in the Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes. A runaway leader pumped up the pace in that race and when they turned for home, the scramble was on. This colt came close to grabbing the lead, but Agate was flying home late and caught him late. He’s been good in both career starts on the turf and he certainly fits with this crew. 

Race 4:

Ten runners are entered in this N1X alliance race for three year olds and up, sprinting 6 ½ furlongs on the main track. This race starts a mid-card Pick-4 that will connect the last two undercard races with the first two Breeders’ Cup races. High Camp (#1) is a horse that I like a lot in this race. He’s making his first start since finishing last in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs back in March. I’ve been very forgiving of horses that don’t run their best races at that three day Colonial Downs meet. They’re racing exclusively on their dirt course and the Virginia Derby is a relatively rare, one turn, nine furlong race. Going into that race, he ran well in two maiden races at Gulfstream during their Championship Meet. He broke his maiden in a very good maiden race in February, where he stalked the pace and wore down some nice horses, two of which came back to win in their next starts. William Walden has great numbers with runners coming off longer layoffs. While I don’t love the rail draw for him in the race, I think 8-1 is a fair and a reasonable price to expect for him, and at that number, he’s one that I’d be willing to back. The backup for me in this race is Cornwall Boss (#7), who is making his first start against winners and his second start off the layoff for Michael Stidham. He debuted last fall at Delaware in a solid maiden race where he finished second. Stidham brought this Street Boss colt to Churchill where he finished a game second to Cannoneer, who is a Brad Cox runner that ran a huge race that day. He went to the sidelines and came back at Delaware at the beginning of the month where he broke his maiden in style, stopping the clock in 1:09:4. I’m not a big raw time guy, but that’s a serious time for six furlongs at Delaware Park, especially in the fall. This is a good field, but he’s given every indication that he can back up that big effort. 

Race 5:

The final undercard race is also the race that starts the Pick-6 wager. Two year olds will sprint seven furlongs in an optional $100K claiming/N1X allowance race. There are three second time starters from strong barns that are all coming maiden special weight wins on debut, and all earning similar speed figures for their efforts. Yacht Master (#1) was a debut winner in a 5 ½ furlong race last month at Churchill. Bob Baffert has had this one in Kentucky for just about two months now. Kingside (#2) debuted here at Keeneland and was an impressive winner in a six furlong race for Brendan Walsh. McCoy (#11) was scheduled to debut at Saratoga, but was forced to scratch in August. Due to an illness. He prepared there for his debut which came at Parx in a maiden race on the PA Derby undercard last month. All three barns have above average numbers with maiden winners in their next start. Baffert’s horses have won 46% (41-89) of the time over the last five years. Walsh is connecting 30% (16-54) of the time and DeVaux is winning 23% (7-30) of the time. All of that being said, I do think the winner is most likely to come from this trio. I’m hopeful that the win at a lesser track like Parx might keep the price a little higher on McCoy, who is the top pick. I like the fact that his race came at 6 ½ furlongs, which may make it easier to stretch out to seven here. Three of the top six finishers from that 13 horse scramble at Parx came back to win in their subsequent starts. I thought that was a strong effort from him after breaking well and being forced to take back in the early going. Jorge Vargas asked him to go a little earlier than I think he would have liked to have, but he accelerated quickly to secure a position. He inhaled the longshot leader and was able to fend off a more experienced runner, who was making his 4th start after being stakes placed in some smaller Mid-Atlantic races. I really like the way he’s been working over the Keeneland strip in preparation for this start. I’ll give him the edge here. Kingside would be the second pick for me in this race. I liked some other horses in his debut race, but he was very professional when stalking the leaders and making a four wide bid in the stretch to get up to score. Gaffalione gets the return assignment on this one. I’ll consider Walsh’s other runner, Bet on Silver (#3) as a deeper saver in this race. He will be making his 5th start this afternoon. He was gradually improving on the dirt and he finally broke through with a solid score at Ellis at the end of July in start number three. Walsh took a big swing and entered him in the Juvenile Mile at Kentucky Downs where he struggled mightily. How’s Al Today was very impressive that day, dominating that field. However, recent stakes wins from Jas and Agate have proven that there was some serious talent on the racetrack that afternoon. He moves back to the dirt, which makes sense, but even though the result was dull, I do think that race could have been beneficial for him. 

Race 6, The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint:

The Breeders’ Cup Races will start with this 12 horse scramble with two year olds going 5 ½ furlongs. While much has already been written about the exclusion of Adonius (#15) in this race, I do find it appalling that he is on the outside looking in here. I’m also baffled as to how two of the horses that he defeated (albeit by a narrow margin) in the Grade 3 Indian Summer Stakes, are given first and second preference over him for entry into this race. He would have been on my tickets after his score on this course. However, barring multiple defections, it seems that he’ll be sitting this one out. There are only three American based runners taking on a whopping nine Europeans in this race. Seven of the 12 runners here are fillies taking on the boys, and I do think the fillies are going to be tough. However, the top pick for me will be Force Noir (#8). He was the look of a horse that is starting to get some things figured out. He’s raced five times, getting a leg up on his competition by debuting in the middle of March at the Curragh in Ireland. He broke his maiden in his second start and then went to Royal Ascot where his chances in the Norfolk were dashed when he ducked out of the gate. He rushed up but fell flat late that day. He was freshened up over the summer and he came back with a solid effort to score on the synthetic course at Dundalk. Most recently he just missed in Group 1 company in the Middle Park Stakes going six furlongs at Newmarket. This is the third start of this form cycle and he is owned by AMO Racing US, who has been knocking on the door with some big prices in these Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint races in recent years. Adrian Murray trained their recent Breeders’ Cup entrants, but this one will be saddled by Robson De Aguiar. Libertango (#3) is the morning line favorite and likely the one to beat in this race. He’s sent out by George Boughey, who turns to Flavien Prat to ride. Boughey is looking for his first Breeders’ Cup winner, but he came close with Cachet in 2021, who was caught in the final 100 yards in her race. He trains Survie, who is back in the states to run in the Breeders’ Cup Turf tomorrow after a great 13 day run at Saratoga where she won the Grade 3 Glen Falls and the Grade 1 Christophe Clement Stakes against the boys. This filly is fast and she’s coming here off a win in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket. She’s going to face a fast American filly, Brickyard Belle (#4), who could be flying late. She’s a half to Joe Shiesty who is a multiple graded stakes winning turf sprinter, who’ll be running in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint tomorrow. This filly sold for $600K and is campaigned by Miguel Clement. The long stretch here at Keeneland should be to her liking. 

Race 7, The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies:

The first of the original Breeders’ Cup races is this 1 1/16 Grade 1 test for two year old fields, which drew 12 runners. One interesting addition to this field is Voyager (#11), who listed her first preference as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but ended up in this race. Perhaps the 47 flat bullet work that she drilled over this oval last week had some influence on that decision. This is the 4th Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland and 5 of the 6 winners in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies ran their final prep in a two turn race. Three of the six winners won their final prep at Keeneland. Emphatic (#10), who is sired by the 2015 Breeders’ Cup (At Keeneland) Juvenile winner, Nyquist, is trying to follow in Wonder Wheel’s footsteps in 2022 as the winner of the Alciabiades and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She is the one to beat, but there is some quality in this field. There’s a decent amount of speed in this race, and some of the horses that could be hunting the lead are in the outside part of the starting gate. While Emphatic could be one those fillies looking for the lead like she did when breaking from the rail last time out, I think it’s more likely that she’s to try to work out a similar trip to the one that she got in the Sorority Stakes at Monmouth two back. I like her versatility and I think she’s immensely talented. She’s also the only runner in the field with two wins when going two turns on the dirt. She’s a major player in this race, but like all Breeders’ Cup races, it’s never going to be easy. Domain Expansion (#2) is the major threat in this race. I thought her win in the Oak Leaf was the most impressive out of all of the preps for this race. She tracked a Baffert runner who set the pace that day. While she was looking for room another Baffert horse and a longshot passed this filly and spread out three deep on the track. Jockey Adrian Escobedo remained patient as she fell back to 4th. He allowed her to tip out on the turn and go four wide and when they came off the turn, she pretty much inhaled the leaders. She drew off to win by seven lengths that day in what was her first career start on the dirt. She has lesser known connections, which should only help her price. She’s starting off at 6-1 in this race and she might be the best of the bunch. I think she offers the best value and she’ll be my top pick. Most of my tickets will go through these two fillies. Miss Monica (#5) for Bob Baffert, is the horse that I’ll be fading. She’s done nothing wrong in her first two starts at Del Mar, winning her maiden race and the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante with ease. However, Baffert’s horses have struggled at Keeneland, and the fact that she’s likely going to be a part of a strong pace while trying two turns for the first time has me very concerned here. Baffert’s two year olds are 0-4 in Breeders’ Cup dirt races at Keeneland with two beaten favorites. The two runners that did hit the board prepped in a two turn dirt race. We’ve seen nice horses in recent years run well in the Del Mar Debutante, but struggle when they go straight to this race. Tamara comes to mind in 2023 and Baffert’s Bottle of Rogue struggled with this move last fall. I’m playing this race like I’m expecting her to finish off the board. Two of the runners that interest me as potential upsetters that I’d consider using on deeper tickets are Voyager (#11) and Manuka Honey (#8). When I previewed this race for ITM Plus, I did so under the expectation that Voyager was going to be running in the turf race. After all, she was the winner of the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes in her last start at Woodbine on the grass there. While she is winless in two dirt starts, she ran well both times, including a second place finish in the Schuylerville. Mark Casse won this race with Wonder Wheel in 2022 and the fact that he changed his mind and moved this filly here tells me that he has confidence with her on this course. She has experience as she’s making her 5th career start and I think she could be finishing well in this race. Manuka Honey is undefeated in three starts coming into this race. She was last seen winning the Grade 3 Pocahontas at Churchill, which was contested at a one turn mile. I trust that she’s going to improve at two turns. Her figures are a little light, hence the 12-1 morning line figure, but she’s been working well and she’s another one that is comfortable passing horses. One horse that won’t be on my multi-race tickets, but is a horse that I’d use in the lower rungs of the trifectas and supers is Revenge of the Sis (#6). I know she was purchased for $500K, but I don’t get the way she’s been campaigned for this race, making her first two starts of her career in stakes company. She’s likely going to be last at the first call in this race, but if there’s a hot pace, she could be passing a lot of tired runners in the stretch. I do see her as another runner that will improve at two turns. 

Race 8, The Grade 1 John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf:

This is a race that was first run in 2008 at the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita and for the first 16 runnings, American based horses won this race 13 times. However, Since 2023, European based runners are 3-4 in this race with Aidan O’Brien winning twice and his son Donnacha O’Brien training last year’s winner Balantina. The Euros have a strong hand in all of the turf races this year and even though they are represented with 75% of the field in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, I think this is the race that they are most likely to win today. Sun Goddess (#9) is an excellent horse for Aidan O’Brien and she might be one of the most likely winners this weekend. The American based runners in this race don’t stand out the way that many have in recent years. She has been well-campaigned, winning 6 of her 8 career starts and earning victories in her last five races. She’s a three time Group 1 winner and her last two races last month have been her best. She’s had trouble that she’s overcome, but she just keeps finding ways to win. I think what encourages me the most is that her best race came when going seven furlongs in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud at the Curragh two back. I think she gets the mile with ease here as she closes the book on what has already been a spectacular two year old campaign. The best chances to beat here are from the other Euros. Aidan’s other son Joseph has two runners, and the filly that I prefer from his barn is Green Empress (#1). She has finished second to Sun Goddess three times, and one of those efforts was pretty close. She ducked her rival and went to Longchamp where she was the winner of the Prix Marcel Boussac at this same mile distance. That was her best career effort and she appears to be coming into this race in very good form. The rail will all but ensure she’s saving ground on the first turn, but it could lead to traffic trouble in a 14 horse bunch. Amusingly (#10) is the second choice on the morning line and the horse that punters feel has the best chance to tackle the “goddess”. She’s making her 4th career start and she was a Grade 1 winner at seven furlongs when beating the boys in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp. 

Race 9, The Grade 1 Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance:

Eight are entered in this race which is all but certain to anoint the Champion Two year old male runner, in spite of the absence of U.S.S. Valor. There is also a daily double linking this race and the Breeders’ Cup Classic tomorrow. This race starts with Hughes (#5), who is undefeated in four career starts for Bob Baffert. While he’s faced small fields in Southern California, he’s done everything right thus far. He was an easy winner on debut at Los Alamitos and he then went on to score in the Grade 3 Best Pal with relative ease. He wasn’t spectacular in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, but he was still much the best in that race. I thought the true test for him would come in the American Pharoah, and he aced that exam with flying colors, drawing clear to beat a decent group by six lengths. He shipped to Kentucky a few weeks ago and he’s had two sharp works over at Churchill. My only knock is that he reminds me a lot of the late Cave Rock, who was a heavy favorite here in 2022 after winning both the Del Mar Futurity and the American Pharoah. He was beaten by an upstart Todd Pletcher runner, Forte, who was the winner of the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. Cave Rock looked like a lock and was hammered down to 2-5. However, the Pletcher runner got the better of his rival that day and Pletcher has another live runner here today. He’ll saddle the winner of the Breeders’ Futurity, American History (#6), who will be breaking in the stall next door. He was able to size up Coach Pope (#8) earlier this month and passed him in the late stages of that race. Now he’ll be asked to do the same thing with the Baffert horse today. Even with the recent defection of Gaudreau, there still should be an honest tempo. I think He Is No Lie (#8) has to send from the outside stall. Flavien Prat will have a decision to make with Hughes, and he’ll be asked to make that choice while riding him for the first time in the afternoon. Juan Hernandez has been aboard for all three graded stakes score and he’s in town this weekend, but he won’t be riding this colt. American History broke slowly in a small six horse in the Breeders’ Futurity, However, John Velazquez stayed patient and sent him with a four wide bid to score in the final 100 yards. There is a lot of promise here and I think he’s sitting on a bigger effort. I’ll give him the slight edge in this race. 

Race 10, The Grade 1 Brown Advisory Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf:

There’s an interesting dynamic with the Euros in the nightcap since four of the 14 runners entered in this race last faced each other in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere Stakes at Longchamp. They were defeated by Amusingly, who is back facing fillies in the 8th race today. If she runs a big race, I think you’d have to upgrade Avec Toi (#2), Florida Bay (#3), Folsom Blues (#10), and Man’s Best Friend (#11) to some extent. I do think the American contingent with Hows Al Today (#5) and Agate (#13) is solid here. You also have Great Barrier Reef (#14) all the way out in Post 14, who is 4-1 on the morning line in this race. Aidan O’Brien has four runners in this race, and they all have some common ownership interests. One other housekeeping note for this race is that Graham Motion has announced that Induction (#1) is out due to spiking a fever. That will allow Jonathan Thomas to run Popcorn (#15) if they wish to do so. All in all, this might be the most challenging race on the card. Florida Bay seems to be entered in this race to be a pace factor. I’m not saying he’s a true rabbit, but I do think his purpose in this race is to ensure an honest early tempo. With Avec Toi (#2) now breaking from the rail, I think Prat is going to want him to be prominent. Liam’s Law (#8) feels like a horse that needs the lead, so I assume that Jose Ortiz is going to be sending him as well. Then there’s Sale Shark (#9) who is stretching out from three straight five furlong dashes. I’m not sold that any of these four are going to be there at the end, but I think the key to unlocking this race is making the right determination on how fast you think they’re going to go. If you’re leaning to a more moderate tempo, I’d think horses that could get first run on those leaders would be the way to go. If you think that they’re going to be rolling up front, some of the deeper closers might be more palatable. I’m going to play two deeper closers and two horses that I think are going to be mid-pack types. I think Popcorn is a live longshot that could blow up the toteboard in the nightcap here. The angle here is that I think the Bourbon was a pretty good race. Agate was really good in that race, and I do think if you play one, you probably need to play the other. Popcorn went to the back of the pack in the first furlong, and that’s probably where he’ll be in this race when breaking from post 14. He had a full head of steam but had to hit the brakes twice in the stretch of the Bourbon, mainly as a result of Irad Ortiz’s mount shutting him off both times. He still finished 4th with good energy when suffering his first career defeat. His figures are light, but his last race could have clearly been faster had he been given the lane to run. I like the rider upgrade to Manny Franco here. He’ll absolutely need a trip and he’ll need to get the right setup, but at long odds, I think he’s one that will absolutely be overlooked in the wagering. Haffner (#4) is the O’Brien runner that I want in this race. He was a winner in his last start, scoring in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes last month at Newmarket. Folsom Blues and Florida Bay were well in front of him at the end of the Group 1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes two back, but I’m thinking that dull effort was not because of the class he was facing, but because of the softer ground at the Curragh. His win at Newmarket was solid and he’s been much sharper on firmer ground. He’s a Justify colt that was bred in Kentucky, but he’ll be making his American racing debut today. I’m expecting a better effort from him. Agate was very shifty when scoring in the Bourbon and I’d imagine that Tyler Gaffalione will be trying to work out the same kind of trip with him in this race. This is his third start of his current form cycle, so there’s reason to believe that he can step forward in this race. How’s Al Today (#5) is the morning line favorite, who is making his first start since running a monster race in the Juvenile Mile Kentucky Downs. He won twice there this summer and he’s been off since that score on September 9th. That was a really good effort and the next out scores from both Jas and Agate in graded stakes races speaks to the quality of that race. Horses that last prepped at Kentucky Downs have historically struggled at the Breeders’ Cup, so this is a “prove it” spot for him. He’s going to be a short price, so I’m inclined to try to beat him in the verticals. However, his last race was too good to leave him off multi-race tickets. 

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.