Keeneland Full Card Analysis – 4/17/24 – By Eric Solomon

As of the time I’m writing this, the Wednesday card should be affected by weather, but there are storms in the forecast for Wednesday evening and the timing of them may be worth keeping an eye on if you’re playing Keeneland from afar. The week begins with an eight race program with only one race carded for the turf course. As a result, the All-Turf Pick-3 wager is not offered today. First post this afternoon is 1:00 (ET).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a restricted maiden special weight for three year old fillies traveling 1 1/16 miles on the main track. The restriction for this race is that a starter must have been sold or RNA for $50K or less at their latest auction. Despite the smaller field size, this is a tough race to start the afternoon. The seven horses have a combined total of 11 races of experience, and 9 of those races have come on a surface other than dirt. When I look at the form lines, one runner is coming out of a significantly tougher race than the other five with experience. Razzle Red (#5) debuted at Gulfstream for Riley Mott and she ran into Royal Wintour, who was a strong second time starter who won going away. Her effort was good enough to make her the morning line favorite in a N1X allowance race here last week. She didn’t run in that race as it was rained off the turf. Regardless, I think that field was deeper than the fields that the others have seen. She’s sired by Twirling Candy wh rogers 17% winners when routing on the dirt. The dam has foaled winners on all three surfaces and her works on the main track are respectable. Two Lucys (#7) has a pair of sprints on synthetic to start her career. She ran well against a weaker bunch two back, but struggled at Turfway when running at this level in her last start. She had over three months off in between starts, so perhaps she was a little rusty last out. She’s sired by Accelerate, who came to Louisville to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2018. He gets 17% winners with runners routing on the dirt for the first time. She has the look of a filly who could take a step forward in this race. Sanctify (#6) fits in this race on figures after running similar races in her four starts at Turfway. She doesn’t have a ton of early speed, so a slower pace might actually help her stay in contact with the field when they run down the backstretch. Lasix is added for the first time for another runner that figures to be better on dirt than synthetic. 

Race 2:

Open $16K claimers are going nine furlongs on the main track here. I like some of the runners with inside draws in this 11 horse field.In my opinion, Mobster Gun (#1) is the most interesting of the group. He was claimed from Dale Romans in his last start at Turfway and he’ll make his first start for Jesus Esquivel today. He’s the only runner in the field that has a win on this oval and a win at this distance (the nine furlong win came at Turfway). His recent form has either been strong or miserable, with not much in between, and as a result, he’s been installed at 20-1 on the morning line. At this level, 20-1 is more than fair and would be tremendous value. If he follows his good race/bad race pattern, he’s due for a better effort. All West (#2)is a two-time winners at this distance, most recently winning last sprint at Oaklawn. Since that win, this eight year old gelded son of Flashback has run some solid efforts on the dirt when sprinting, but he ran a poor race at this distance in the slop back in December. When watching that race back, he seemed to be struggling to handle the course that day, so that effort feels like a toss. His sprint tries have been solid and his effort last out back at two turns in New Orleans was respectable. Candy for Carmel (#4) is a backup play for me in this spot. His form was in a steady decline and after back to back dull efforts at Delaware, he was shut down. He resurfaced for new connections at Santa Anita and closed well to be third when making his first start for Baltas. His last was one of his better efforts in a while, so I’d be hopeful that he could do it again. 

Race 3:

A half dozen fillies and mares  will go 1 1/16 in this maiden allowance race. Streetwhereyoulive (#6) makes her second start for Phillip Bauer and her first in almost a year in this race. This filly hopped a bit at the break and was last for the better part of the rice. She was no match for Tarifa or Regulatory Risk that day. Those fillies have made that into a definite key race, as Tarifa has become a graded stakes winner and Regulatory Risk is now graded stakes placed. She faced by far the toughest field that anyone has had to deal with so far. Phillip Sims has good numbers with horses off the layoff and when teaming up with jockey Alex Achard, they’ve won at a 32% clip over the last 15 months. I think she can pull off the upset with this group. Dynamism (#3) is the one I want as a backup in this spot. She debuted at Laurel for Graham Motion and finished second against a softer group when going seven furlongs, Motion opts to stretch out to a route for her second career shot. The dam’s two other runners are both winners, but neither of them have won a race at two turns. The pairing with Uncle Mo should help provide a little more stamina to her overall pedigree. Motion seems to have very good numbers getting horses to stretch out from sprints to routes, but I wanted to dive a little deeper. Over the last five years, he has won 19% of his races with runners that are routing for the first time in their second career start. Most of those wins have come on the grass. He’s 3-22 (14%) with runners on dirt routing for the first time in their second start. However, nine of those losses came with runners that remained in a race that was taken off the turf. He’s 3-13 (23%) with runners that he intended to run on the dirt, when routing for the first time in their second start. I’m not sure it’s enough to switch me off the top pick, but it is food for thought and it validates using this filly as a backup at the very least in this spot. 

Race 4:

Two year olds will take their family position at the top of the Headley Course in this 4 ½ furlong maiden allowance race. Bostonian (#4) has been entered and scratched twice so far during this meet. Ward had him entered in a race on opening day, but he opted to scratch him in favor of his stablemate, Shoot It True, who was a much the best winner. Clearly he knew he had the goods with that one, but maybe not so much with him. He was stuck on the AE in his last start, so he had to defect from that race as well. He has worked out twice instead of racing and neither of those works are as fast as the ones from March. Perhaps Ward has him where he wants him and those drills are strictly for maintenance. He’s sired by Bernardini, who only has 6% winners with debuting two year old first time starters over the last five years. The dam has produced a stakes winning sprinter on the dirt, but her other five horses to have hit the track haven’t done much. There’s not a ton of better looking options in this race and Ward has already trained the winners of three of the first four two year old races. I’ll use this one, but he doesn’t strike me as the prototypical Ward two year old that he brings to Keeneland. I’ll try a bomb and go with Into Inspiration (#12) as the longshot top pick in this race. Horses in the outside lanes have fared well in these 4 ½ furlong races at this meet so far. The works are solid and Into Mischief has sired 17% debut winners with two year olds over the last five years. He’s the first foal to run from an Honor Code mare. The first two babies Rafael Ramos has sent out at this meet have been crushed. His work on 4/3 was a little slower than the work from Enduring Spirit. That one showed a little early interest last week, but appeared to be struggling to take hold of the sloppy ground. At long odds, I’d consider using him as the alternative to the inevitably short priced Ward runner. Both Jet Sweep Joe (#2) and Strummin (#9) appear to be viable alternatives on paper. However, I’m not sure if either is going to offer enough value to play with any real confidence. Paul McEntee has only saddled one two year old debut winner in the last five years, despite sending out 57 runners (Ironically, that one winner starts in the next race). He has Jet Sweep Joe going well in the AM, and Frosted is another nice debut sire. The works stack up on paper, but 7-2 on a horse from this barn under these circumstances feels too low for my taste. Strummin did pass some runners to get into second place when he made his debut here on Opening Day 12 days ago. He was no match for the Ward firster that day. I don’t see this as a very deep field on paper, so there’s reason to believe that he’ll get take something away from being the line horse in the field with afternoon race day experience. 

Race 5:

The Late Pick-4 starts with a $30K N2X claiming race for fillies and mares going seven furlongs and 184 feet. Everyone in this race qualifies under the N2L condition, so when looking back on this race in future PP’s, that’s how I’ll be considering it. Baytown Lovely (#6) is the filly I referenced in the previous, as the lone two year debut winner for trainer Paul McEntee in the last five years. She has run well in two of three local starts, with a poor effort coming against a loaded field of N1X allowance boys on the Breeders’ Cup undercard in 2022. When she’s appropriately spotted, she’s a threat. Outofnothingatall (#2)is the kind of filly that run on any surface. She broke her maiden on the dirt at Evangeline in her debut. She struggled on the dirt in stakes and allowance company, but she’s come back to run some solid races on synthetic and turf. She ran a credible race on the grass at Gulfstream in her last start and now she comes back to the dirt in her second start off the layoff. This feels like the right level of competition for her. Blenheim Baby (#8) is coming off subpar efforts on the Tapeta at Turfway. She was given a little extra time off that last race, likely with the intention of waiting for this meet where she could get back on the traditional dirt. She ran credible races on the dirt at Mahoning Valley and Churchill in her first two starts. She’s also cutting back to one turn, which should prove to be helpful. 

Race 6: 

Six fillies and mares are going to run six furlongs in this $50K starter allowance race. Horses must also meet the N1X allowance conditions to participate. De’Ans Eighty (#1), Little Sister Sue (#4), and Popperina (#5) are all coming out of a $40K starter allowance race at Oaklawn where they finished within a length of each other in what was certainly a wild finish. I don’t have confidence that Little Sister Sue can run back to that race, especially with her lack of tactical speed. While I think Popperina has a big shot in this race, I would love her if this race was at seven furlongs. At six furlongs, I think she is vulnerable, especially with the lack of a serious early pace. I think Marmalade Skye (#6) is going to sit the perfect trip. I don’t know if she’s good enough to beat this group in her return to dirt and facing winners for the first time, but I do see her having a lot of upside. She ran a decent race in her debut when facing $50K maiden claimers here in October. She tried the maiden special weight company at Churchill, and while she wasn’t embarrassed, she also wasn’t great. She has done well wintering at Turfway as evidenced by her increased speed figures. If she can continue to improve on the dirt, she’ll be a force with this group. Popperina is going to be on the A line for me, because after three starts, I think she’s better than De’Ans Eighty, despite finishing very close to her last out. Even with the shorter field, I don’t like the rail draw for her. I think she could sit in a pocket, but I worry about her getting caught behind some of the frontrunners that might start backpedaling. While she is very consistent, she’s more of a deeper tickets play for me. 

Race 7: 

The lone turf race of the afternoon is the featured, N1X allowance contest, going nine furlongs. I do think the shorter prices have the advantage in this race. What Say Thee (#2) and Weyhill Road (#1) competed in the same race last month at Gulfstream. While they only finished a little less than two lengths apart, it was a tale of two very different trips. What Say Thee was absolutely bottled up throughout the length of the stretch. Weyhill Road was wide on both turns after breaking from post 11. While the latter is getting definite post relief, I think What Say Thee was loaded last time out with nowhere to run. He likes to be covered up, so there’s a chance that he could suffer the same misfortune, however, he’s looked very sharp since Maker claimed him and he’s given be no reason to be concerned that he won’t run his race. The dam of Weyhill Road has produced four graded stakes winners with six career starters. While most of his brothers and sisters would prefer the dirt, he may be carving out a new niche while racing on the turf. I didn’t love his last race, but he was making his first start off a layoff and doing so while wide most of the trip. Porquerolles (#12) is going to need to overcome the 12 hole to win this race. His debut was excellent at Gulfstream, and Motion is always looking for his next stakes caliber horse. The future is bright for this son of Speightstown, 

Race 8:

A full brother to Flightline will cost you $100K in this maiden claiming race going seven furlongs. While I don’t think anyone expected Olivier (#8) to be the next Flightline, I think it’s fair to say he’s been a disappointment. The fact that he’s available for $100K tells me that the owners are hopeful that someone will take the bait because at this point, I don’t think they think he’s worth that amount of money. He’s a pass for me in this race. Practical Thought (#7) as the third choice on the morning line is far more appealing to me. He finished 5th at long odds when facing a strong field in the slop at the Fair Grounds on the Risen Star undercard. He came back to pair his initial Beyer and run a strong second in a maiden optional claiming race there. Paul McGee brings him to Lexington and has the Practical Joke colt well spotted for his third career start. I think he’s going to be a force in this race. Despite running his best career race on this oval last year, I’m not sold on Trumptastic (#1) in this race. He ran that race in the third start of his form cycle. He ships here from Turfway in the second start of this cycle, I also don’t love his Churchill effort at the one turn mile. While this race is ⅛ of a mile shorter, I’m not sure that he’s the middle distance sprinting type. I’ll use the Godolphin runner, Contemplation (#5) as my backup in this race. He was an uneventful 7th place finisher in his debut. He stretched out to one mile where he was definitely better, despite getting a little tired late. His half sister is a talented sprinter in the Pacific Northwest. I think she figures to be the improving type here. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners: 20/74 (27.0%), $140.20, $1.89 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.