Keeneland Full Card Analysis – 4/18/24 – By Eric Solomon

The weather held up on Wednesday and it looks like we’re all systems go for this nine race, Thursday after card. There are three turf races carded, so the All-Turf Pick-3 wager is back on the table today. First post today is 1:00 (ET).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

I tried to find an alternative to Moneyshot (#1) in the opener, but he feels like he’s going to be very tough to beat in this restricted maiden special weight contest for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. He has the best speed and the rail post, while facing many horses that tend to chase the leader as opposed to trying to be the leader. Barring an unforeseen performance from one of his rivals, his last two races at Oaklawn would likely be good enough to win this race. I’ll look to Priority Lane (#7) as the backup in this spot. He ran a credible race when debuting with $35K maiden claimers on the turf at Gulfstream in his last start. He’s facing tougher while changing surfaces. Runhappy does hit with 12% of his runners routing on the dirt for the first time. 

Race 2:

Two year old fillies dash 4 ½ furlongs here. As per usual, Wesley Ward trains the morning line favorite in one of these races. Ultima Grace (#1) draws the rail and makes her first start today. She’s an American Pharoah out of the mare, Ultima D, who Ward also trained. That one was not so hot in her debut in one of these baby races at Keeneland back in 2017. American Pharoah does get 11% winners with debuting dirt sprinters. Her works are solid and she’s clearly the one to beat from a barn that has won three of the four baby races they’ve been represented in at this meet. However, looking at her pedigree, I do think this filly’s future is on the grass. Ward may be thinking Royal Ascot with this one, and she might be fast enough to beat these horses regardless of her personal surface preference. While I plan to use her, I’m going to try to beat her with Hey Scooter (#4). She’s a full sister to Sweet Soddy J, who was a debut winner as a two year old at Colonial this summer. Raymond Ginter trains that two time stakes winner and he also trains this filly. The works are quick enough on paper to contend. Bee Jersey has a limited sample, but the horses he has sired have won 26% of their debut races when sprinting on the dirt. His runners are winning 23% of the time in dirt sprints thus far in his young career at stud. On deeper tickets, I’ll try Baytown Butterfly (#6). Paul McEntee had a winner yesterday in the baby race for the boys. He has a half-sibling that was a debut winner. Her work two back was a faster four furlong drill than what Jet Sweep Joe, who was McEntee’s winner yesterday, was running in the AM.

Race 3:

A dozen fillies and mares will sprint seven furlongs in this $100K maiden claiming contest. I don’t care for some of the shorter prices in this race, so I’m looking at a trio of mid-range runners in terms of morning line price. Up the Creek (#6) is the pick in this spot. She was very good at Churchill when making her career debut at this level, taking the lead at the top of the stretch, only to be passed in the late stages. Her two subsequent efforts at Turfway weren’t as sharp while facing maiden allowance foes. She drops back for this high claiming tag and should appreciate returning to a dirt course. Sabrina (#1) was 5th and last when she debuted in December at Aqueduct. She has since been moved to Brendan Walsh’s barn, where she’ll add Lasix and drop in for a tag. While I’m not crazy about her rail draw for this race, I do see her as a candidate to improve. Stagflation (#12) might not have the highest ceiling in this race, but she has run races that would put her in the conversation as one of the contenders. She ran two nice races on the course last season, both of them coming in two turn contests. This seven furlong trip may prove to be a good distance for her. 

Race 4:

$50K N2L claimers will travel 1 1/16 miles on the main track here. I like the New York invader for Raymond Handal, Certified Loverboy (#3). He’s been knocking on the door with N1X allowance types at Aqueduct over the winter. His last was not his best effort, which is likely why he’s dropping in for a tag here. He’s been in town for a few weeks, so he’s had time to get acclimated with his new surroundings. His local works are solid and I think he’s going to break through and get the second career victory today. Kolomio (#6) has been running fairly consistent races in New Orleans for Keith Desormeaux. He’s been battling in starter allowance races after he was claimed for this $50K last year. Since moving to dirt, he’s been a better horse. Despite his only career win coming on grass, I think he’s playable in this field. 

Race 5:

The All-Turf Pick-3 begins with a maiden special weight contest for three year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles. This is definitely a race where I would want some coverage. Beyond Lucky (#3) gets the call for me in her second start. She showed some speed before fading in her debut at Turfway when sprinting six furlongs. She’s sired by Nyquist, who is getting 18% winners with horses routing on the turf for the first time. I trust Irad Ortiz riding for Jonathan Thomas more than most of the other trainer/jockey duos in this race. I think she’ll move forward today. I don’t love a lot of the current form for this race, but I see some interesting first time starters. The one I like the best is Waves of Mischief (#1) breaking from the rail this afternoon for Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione. The works are decent for this $575K purchase and this barn knows how to get a horse ready to run two turns right out of the gate. On deeper tickets, Deep Satin (#9) is another firster for a starting barn. She debuts for Cherie DeVaux and gets Jose Ortiz to ride. American Pharoah gets 14% winners in turf routes. Her dam has produced a graded stakes placed horse as well. I’ll also cover with Centuria (#4) coming in from Gulfstream after finishing 4th there in her North American debut. She blew the break, but was still finishing with interest on a course that favored horses on or near the lead throughout most of the Championship Meet. She was competitive on synthetic in Ireland, so if her form transfers to turf, she’s going to be tough. 

Race 6:

I’ll try one of the longshots in this maiden special weight race and make Tapit’s Tale (#5) the top pick. He sprinted on the Tapeta in his debut and looking at his pedigree, I’d argue that’s not what he wants to be doing. He’s sired by Tapit out of the graded stakes winning mare, Verve’s Tail. He has a couple of sharp works on this track and he could be closing well to run by all of these at long odds. Secret Crush (#7) and Reynolds Channel (#4) have very similar running lines, in part because they met in a fast, one turn, one mile dirt race when making their second career starts. They both ran big races at Gulfstream with Secret Crush winding up a half length better than Reynolds Channel. Both want to be forward in this race, but I don’t think that either Unlimitedpotential (#1) or Crossing (#2) is going to let them have that. I still think they can win this race, but I do trust Secret Crush a little more, moving forward. He’ll be on the A line, while Reynolds Channel will be more of a backup for me. 

Race 7:

The featured allowance race is a turf sprint for fillies and mares, four and up. There are some stakes winners in this quality field, which could be in flux for this race. I’m making a few assumptions when handicapping this race, which will lead me to a horse I have some strong opinions about. Both Breeze Easy (#6) and Bling (#12) participated in the Grade 3 Giant’s Causeway Stakes on Saturday. I believe that both runners entered this race as a backup plan in the event the stakes race was taken off the turf (which was the case for the Limestone Stakes on Friday). I think both are likely to defect from this race, and the first two that would be eligible to replace them would be Miss Arlington (#13) and Shootoutthelights (#14). If both of these four year old fillies run in place of the Saturday stakes runners, that totally changes the pace scenario for this race. Both of those fillies are speed horses that should ensure an honest tempo. Assuming this plays out this way, I think L J’s Emma (#3) becomes a huge player. She’s a horse that wants to sit in the middle of the pack and make her bid. She tried that last out and she was absolutely stifled. She was given the rest of the winter off and now begins her four year old season. Her trainer, Eddie Kenneally, has great numbers with horses coming off longer layoffs, winning 40% of those races since 2023 and winning 22% of the time over a five year sample. She was brilliant on a good course at Saratoga when winning the Galway Stakes for her third consecutive victory over the summer. She’s making her first start since October, and I think it’s likely to be a winning one. Marissa’s Lady (#1) is my backup plan, and assuming both of those AE runners don’t draw in, I might move her over to the B line. She has the ability to be on or near the lead if she wants to be forward. She doesn’t need to be there though, so that flexibility is a valuable commodity. Her effort here in the fall, which is her only local effort, was solid. 

Race 8:

Older runners will go 6 ½ furlongs in this open $40K claiming race. Kneedeepinsnow (#9) should get the right setup and a nice trip from his outside stall. There’s a decent amount of early speed signed on for this race, and he should be just behind them in the early stages. He’s run some strong races on this oval, and the distance of this contest suits him well. I think this is about the right level of competition for him at this point in his career. The Distractor (#3) ships in from Tampa after an off the board finish against state bred stakes company in his last start. He’s been off the board in his first three starts of 2024, which feels a little odd because he won 10 of his first 23 starts. I do think he can right the ship today. Secret Rules (#2) might have been better off drawing an outside post for this race. At one point in his career he was fast enough to clear some of these runners in the first few strides. While he may have lost a step, he is running in his second race off the layoff and he should be able to make a small step forward. 

Race 9:

The Thursday nightcap is a maiden special weight for fillies and mares sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. I don’t love a lot of the current form, so I landed on a few first time starters in this race, making From Scratch (#11) my top pick. She’s a daughter of Flameaway, who is off to a hot start as a sire. He’s getting 17% winners in turf sprints and two of his five runners that debuted in turf sprint races, reported home as winners. One of the two runners that made it to the track from the dam Dreaming of Susie, won in their career debut race. The recent works are sharp for a barn that could be flying under the radar in this race. Bougie Not Basic (#1) is a full sister to Red Carpet Ready, who was a 10 length debut winner on a sloppy dirt course. That one has never tried the turf, but she is a multiple graded stakes winning sprinter on the main track. Horses sired by Oscar Performance are winning 15% of the time in turf sprints and his first time starters are winning at the same percentage. I’ll back up with Mo Lantern (#6), who ran a credible race on debut when going this distance on the grass at Churchill. She then jumped to a  nine furlong race on the Tapeta at Turfway. At a short price, I’m a little worried that this is a race designed to set her up for her next start. However, if the newcomers don’t fire, she might be the best in the bunch. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners: 21/80 (26.2%), $144.38, $1.80 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.