Keeneland Full Card Analysis – 4/25/24 – By Eric Solomon

Two year olds will get their first chance to run on the grass in the penultimate day of the 2024 Spring Meet. We’ll see them dash 5 ½ furlongs in the second race of the day, which will be an early start for the All-Turf Pick-3 wager. First post this afternoon is 1:00 (ET).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day begins with a $30K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles. I’m not sold on the WinStar fire sale runner, True Faith (#4), who is the morning line favorite in his second career start. He debuted in a decent maiden allowance at Oaklawn where he finished near the back of the pack. However, it’s never an encouraging sign to see a horse that was purchased for $575K, to be entered for a $30K tag without ever even trying a route on dirt with maiden special weight company. Main Line Cipher (#6) feels like the one to beat in this race. He ships in from Gulfstream for Saffie Joseph after several consistent efforts. He was claimed for $40K, so he is dropping below his tag. His recent works have been getting sharper, posting a flashy 46:2 bullet here the other day. Ken Ramsey loves to be in the Winner’s Circle at Keeneland and all signs point to seeing him there. If he gets beat, Surface to Air (#5)  figures to be the one. His two efforts at two turns on the dirt at Churchill are two of his better outcomes. He’s had 11 chances to break his maiden and has only finished in the money in three of those starts. He makes his first start since November for a barn that can get them ready off the break. If the odds gap between him and the favorite widens from the morning line (5-2 vs. 3-1), he’d be more enticing. 

Race 2:

This maiden special weight contest for two year olds going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf drew an overflow field of 16. As many as 12 will run, but how I attack this race depends upon the status of one of the runners that is one the outside, looking in. Johnny Come Lately (#15) is the “other” Ward runner in this race, but I feel this gelded son of Hootenanny is much better suited to a turf sprint than his higher priced stablemate. Hootenanny was a two year old debut winner on this course and after finishing third in a stakes at Pimlico, he went on to win a sprint at Royal Ascot en route to winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in 2014. The dam was a winner in her second start overseas, going five furlongs. She foaled Karak, who was a winner on debut on the turf at Belmont and would beat the boys in the Tyro stakes at five furlongs on the turf in the summer of 2019. His full brother was winner on dirt in a two year old race here last spring. The two horses ahead of him on the AE list are entered tomorrow, so there is a chance that he competes. If not, I want to try to beat the heavy favorite, Monterey Bay (#7), who is also trained by Ward. He was purchased for $330K by Tabor, Smith, and Magnier, so you’d have to think Royal Ascot is on their mind. While this horse may be bred to be a good one, I think he wants a little longer than the 5 ½ furlongs of this race. Good Magic sires a lot of winners, but he’s only sired 5% winners in turf sprints. The dam has one runner that ran well in turf sprints, but her other runners haven’t had much success. I’ll use him as a saver if his stablemate runs, and I’ll use him a little more if he doesn’t. The top pick if Johnny Come Lately doesn’t draw in would be Bright Skittle (#5). While Geroge Arnold isn’t known for debut winners, the sire of this colt, Twirling Candy is. He gets 19% winners with firsters and 15% winners with turf sprinters. His dam did all of her work on dirt, but she was a two year old debut winner by open lengths at Ellis in 2017. There’s a pair of runners from Caravaggio, who was an excellent turf sprinter. I like both, but I think the longer priced Graydaria (#9) could be flying under the radar in this race. John Ennis isn’t great with debut runners, but he does well with two year olds. He’s the first runner from this mare who won in her second career start. The dam ran twice on the turf, finishing off the turf both times, however, both efforts were credible. She was stakes placed on the dirt, so there was some ability that she could pass on. Cheval de Guerre (#4) is the shorter priced Caravaggio first time starter. Eddie Kenneally has great numbers with turf sprinters. He has two wins with 15 two year old first time starters in the last five years. He doesn’t typically debut them this early, having only one two year old starter at Keeneland on grass in the last five years. 

Race 3:

Older horses will go 1 1/16 miles on the main track in this open $50K claiming race. I landed on Cooke Creek (#4) in this six horse field. He ran a big race, losing in a three horse photo on this oval last spring. He suffered the same fate once again on this course in the fall. He went off form in his last two starts at Gulfstream, and he’s a horse that after winning his first two races, has failed to win in his last 15 tries. He’s had some tough luck when facing some salty fields. He ran in an optional claiming/allowance race last out with the tag, but this is his first time running with straight claimers, which is probably where he belongs at this stage of his career. Tiwanaku (#6) is another runner that is looking to regain his best form. His last three tries have not been his best. However, he wants to be on the front end, and I don’t think anyone can challenge him for the early lead. I’m hoping if Edgar Morales can get him running with a loose rein, he might be tough to run down. 

Race 4:

The Pick-6 begins with a $20K N2L claiming race for fillies and mares. Berlaine (#8) draws the outside stall for her second start at the meet. She was 5th, beaten 12 lengths when facing $50K starter allowance foes on Opening Day. This is a pretty deep drop in class. Her first two efforts at this distance were respectable and both of those races would play well at this level. Smart With Heart (#7) didn’t look all that interested in racing on the grass in her last two starts in New Orleans. She was a dominating winner with $20K maiden claimers at this distance three starts ago at the Fair Grounds. Jose Camejo is winless with three starters at the meet, but all three of those runners finished in the money, so he’s bringing live runners to town. Riviere (#4) was claimed by Martin Rouck, who hasn’t trained many horses to date. He’s had 49 runners in the last five years, winning with seven of them. He’s been sharp first off the claim, especially when giving his runners a little time off in between starts. Her only dirt race was not good, but perhaps she’s grown up since that off the turf race at Saratoga back in July. 

Race 5:

This is a strong N1X allowance race for older horses going 1 ½ miles on the turf. I’m interested to see if Truly Quality (#10) is going to be able to get the 12 furlong distance of this race. He’s a gelded son of Quality Road out of the mare Truly Together. This mare was bred by Augustin Stables and was foaled by the champion, Forever Together. Including this one, the first three runners from this mare have been strong competitors on turf. This gelding broke his maiden at 10 furlongs on the grass over the summer at Belmont. He ran credible races at this level when going similar distances at Kentucky Downs and here. Jonathan Thomas brought him to Santa Anita to run twice at this level, going one mile while facing some decent fields. He just missed two starts back and he didn’t get much pace to close into in his last. He’ll make a big stretch out in his third start off the layoff, and he might be overlooked in a field where there are some proven commodities at this distance. Champagne Juan (#9) makes a lot of sense in this race. He was beaten a ½ length by Utah Beach at this distance last out at Gulfstream. That one came back to easily beat a N2X field at this distance on this course two weeks ago. That was his first start at this distance so I think he’ll be more fit for this journey. He loses Irad Ortiz, who rides Sgt. Pepper (#6) for Todd Pletcher, but I’ll happily pick up his brother Jose for this contest. Brees (#1) has the look of a horse that wants to run all day. He came up a length short in his last turf start at Aqueduct when going nine furlongs three back. He ran two sharp races when going 1 3/16 miles on the Tapeta in his last two starts at Gulfstream. Vincent Cheminaud has ridden well over this course in the last few years and he seems to have a good rapport with this one. I think he has a shot to run a better race at decent odds in this race. 

Race 6:

The late Pick-4 begins with a $50K starter allowance race for which horses also must qualify under the N1X allowance condition to participate. A field of seven has been assembled where the entire group qualifies under the N2L condition. I’m not loving what I’m seeing from some of the shorter prices in this race, so I’m going to go value shopping. I think York Tavern (#1) has a big shot in this race, making his first start off the claim for Kent Sweezey. Sweezey has had some live runners at the meet, going into the week with a winner and a pair of third place finishers with three starters. He ran a decent race in N1X allowance company in the fall when he finished 5th against a strong field for that condition. That was his only true, two-turn race on the dirt, and I thought it was one of his better efforts. He was flat in his first two starts off the layoff at Turfway over the winter, finishing off the board both times. He was claimed for $30K last out and moves to a protected spot in his first start for his new connections. He wants to be forwardly placed, and is likely quick enough to make the early lead if that’s what Luan Machado wants to do. I think he’s well-spotted for a form reversing race with this group. My backup will be Jr’s Gift (#2). He’s another runner getting back on dirt after racing at Turfway over the winter. He’s been sharp in his local races, finishing in the money twice in three starts and running a career top Beyer Speed Figure on this oval in October. My issue with him is that he is 1-35 in his career. He doesn’t have a ton of early speed and he tends to hang around for a piece without ever having a winning move. He’s finished in the money in 15 of the other 34 races that we didn’t win, so he’s a decent play underneath. He is fast enough to win this race on his best day, so he is worth using as a saver in spite of his record. 

Race 7:

This is a sharp group of sprinters assembled for a $100K optional claiming/N3X allowance contest. Eyeing Clover (#3) is the one for me in this race. This four year old was very good in his first two starts in his career. He attended a sharp pace in the Gotham last year on a muddy course. None of the frontrunners that day landed anywhere near the front, so his 4th place finish wasn’t terrible that day. He came back to win the Hot Springs and lose in a three horse photo in the Texas Derby before telling Brad Cox that he needed some time off after his last place finish in Iowa. His first start as a four year old was sharp last month, finishing third behind Mr, Wireless, who ran huge, and Kavod. I think seven furlongs will be the kind of distance where he’ll thrive. Condemn (#5) has a live look while getting back on the traditional dirt. His last two starts on synthetic haven’t been his best. He was shuffled back with a big field in his last local start, but he was very sharp when clearing the N1X allowance condition on this oval at this distance in 2022. He has the look of a horse that is sitting on a better race today. Angkor (#6) makes his first start of 2024 for Phil Bauer, who has great numbers first time off the layoff. I think this one is slightly more effective at 6 ½ furlongs as opposed to 7. He comes in with six straight in the money finishes, winning twice in that span. I don’t love him as the favorite in this spot, but I do see him as a player. 

Race 8:

A dozen three year old fillies will be going 1 3/16 miles on the turf in this N1X allowance race. Both one mile races on the turf  yesterday were won by horses who led from gate to wire. While I don’t think you need to be on the lead on this course to win, being forwardly placed has generally worked out better than running on from the back of the pack. I liked the effort I saw from Sassy Princess (#1) in her three year old debut last month when breaking her maiden at Gulfstream. The pace was moderate for that nine furlong race, but she was sent from her outside gate. I think the rail draw should work to her favor while facing winners for the first time today. Brendan Walsh has had several live runners at this meet and this one looks like she could offer some value while facing some horses that have been dabbling in stakes company. Style Points (#9) feels like the one that should have the target on her back in this race. She’s dropping class after a pair of narrow defeats in Grade 3 company. The $110K purse for this race had to be part of the reason they’re dropping her in class for this race. Her speedy works tell me that Rosario might be trying to put her in play a little sooner in this race. Royal Wintour (#5) is another recent maiden winner that has some upside in this race. She broke near the back of the pack in her debut two starts ago, but she showed more speed in her second career start where she drew off to win by three. I don’t mind the added distance for her in this race. Demarchelier is off to a good start at sire, winning with 23% of his turf route runners. However, none of them have gone longer than nine furlongs. The dam was really good at one mile, and her other foals have been comfortable at that distance too. This race could be pushing her limitations on how far she actually wants to run. Brian Hernandez rode a longshot winner for Ken McPeek yesterday with a horse trying the turf for the first time. He’s going to try to do it again today with Midsummer March (#6). He’s sired by Mendelssohn, so there’s reason to believe that she can improve while moving to the grass for the first time. She was an impressive maiden winner two back on the main track at Oaklawn. That effort was good enough to put her in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. She was no match for the prime contenders that day, finishing last of six. McPeek moves her to the grass and he reunites her with Brian Hernandez who rode her to victory back in February. The dam tried turf once and didn’t fire, and her first foal had the same result in his lone turf try. I’m hoping the Mendelssohn influence will be more pronounced with her. She’s a deeper tickets play for me in this spot.

Race 9:

The Friday nightcap is a maiden special weight race for three year old fillies, sprinting six furlongs. There are some well-meant first time starters in this race, but I’m not sure how many are going to be ready to run a big race at first asking. I think Conquest Dancer (#8) could be overlooked in this race. Most of the sires represented in this race are strong debut sires, and Frosted is no different. Wayne Catalano has won with 17% of his debut runners over the last 16 months. I like that while many of the others are running strong four furlong workouts, she’s been consistently drilling at five furlongs. One of the first two foals to run from this dam won on debut and the other was a close second. Plum Tricky (#10) went to the front last out at the Fair Grounds and came close to taking them all the way. She showed improvement two starts back when racing a distant second in a salty maiden special weight in the slop on the Risen Star undercard. She’s had four races of steady improvement, so they’re going to have to be ready to run to beat her.  Into Amore (#11) is out of the 2015 Alabama winner, Embellish the Lace. That one didn’t run well in her six furlong debut, but she got very good, very fast. Her first two foals have been solid runners, one of which won on debut at a mile. The other has never finished off the board in seven career starts. Both runners are better at distances, so this race could be a little too short for her. She’s trained by Pletcher, so she’ll look the part. Her post isn’t bad, breaking in the outside stall. She’s worth considering in this spot. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners: 28/116 (24.1%), $203.70, $1.76 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.